Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market is projected to expand from USD 36.62 Billion in 2025 to USD 59.05 Billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 8.29%. These systems comprise integrated technologies essential for regulating temperatures within the powertrain, cabin, and battery packs of trucks, buses, and vans. Growth is largely propelled by strict emission standards that demand greater engine efficiency and the rapid electrification of logistics fleets, which necessitates precise thermal management for battery safety and range optimization. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association highlights this demand, noting an 8.3 percent rise in new EU van registrations in 2024, which fuels the need for such components.

However, market expansion faces a significant hurdle due to the high development costs linked to advanced thermal architectures for electric vehicles. These systems are technically intricate, requiring simultaneous heat management for battery packs and power electronics, which complicates integration and raises vehicle prices. Consequently, these elevated costs may discourage adoption among cost-sensitive fleet operators.

Market Drivers

The rapid shift toward electric and hybrid commercial vehicles is fundamentally transforming thermal management requirements, as these platforms demand sophisticated architectures to keep battery temperatures within optimal ranges. Unlike internal combustion engines, electric powertrains rely on precise regulation to ensure safety, extend range, and enable fast charging, often utilizing high-performance liquid cooling plates and complex loop separation. This trend is underscored by the rising demand for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles; according to the International Energy Agency's "Global EV Outlook 2024" published in April 2024, global electric truck sales jumped by 35 percent in 2023, exceeding 50,000 units. Additionally, the public transport sector reinforces this growth, with the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reporting in January 2025 that new EU bus registrations rose by 9.2 percent in 2024.

Concurrently, the growth of global cold chain logistics and refrigerated transport offers unique opportunities for advanced thermal regulation outside the powertrain. Rising consumer demand for perishables is prompting fleet operators to acquire transport refrigeration units (TRUs) that provide superior temperature control and energy efficiency. The industry is also moving toward electric TRUs to eliminate emissions during loading operations, further blending propulsion and refrigeration thermal needs. This sector's strength is evident in financial results; Trane Technologies reported in October 2024 that its Europe, Middle East, and Africa segment, which includes transport refrigeration, achieved an 8 percent year-over-year increase in net revenues in the third quarter.

Market Challenges

The significant development costs required for electric commercial vehicle thermal management architectures pose a major barrier to market growth. As the industry transitions to electrification, the technical demands for managing temperatures in battery packs and power electronics have become increasingly complex. This intricacy compels manufacturers to invest heavily in specialized components and integration methods, driving up overall production costs. These expenses ultimately increase the final vehicle price, making entry difficult for logistics companies that value immediate capital efficiency over long-term savings.

Such financial constraints directly slow the transition of fleets to electric platforms, reducing the volume of orders for advanced thermal systems. The effect of these economic pressures is reflected in recent industry data; according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, new registrations of electrically chargeable vans fell by 12.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the prior year. This decline highlights how high vehicle costs, resulting in part from complex thermal integration, are limiting the market's expansion potential.

Market Trends

A prevailing trend is the consolidation into Integrated Thermal Management Modules, driven by the need to save space and reduce weight in complex electric commercial vehicles. OEMs are moving away from sourcing separate pumps, valves, and heat exchangers in favor of "one-box" solutions that combine these components into a single, pre-tested unit, which simplifies assembly and reduces leak paths. This shift toward modular efficiency is visible in the financial results of key suppliers; Mahle's April 2024 "Annual Report 2023" noted that sales in its Thermal Management business unit rose by 4.1 percent to 4.6 billion euros, fueled by strong demand for these integrated technologies.

Simultaneously, the market is shifting toward Low-Global Warming Potential Refrigerants due to stricter environmental rules like the EU F-Gas regulations and the U.S. AIM Act. Operators are replacing legacy hydrofluorocarbon systems with sustainable options such as carbon dioxide and propane, requiring re-engineered compressors and seals to manage higher pressures and flammability. This move toward compliant cooling technologies is driving capital turnover in logistics; Carrier Global Corporation reported in its "Third Quarter 2024 Results" in October 2024 that container refrigeration sales increased by over 30 percent, demonstrating the rapid pace at which the logistics network is upgrading to meet regulatory standards.

Key Players Profiled in the Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market

• Robert Bosch GmbH
• Dana Incorporated
• MAHLE GmbH
• Gentherm Inc.
• Hanon Systems
• Denso Corporation
• BorgWarner Inc.
• Valeo SE
• Modine Manufacturing Company
• Schaeffler AG

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market has been segmented into the following categories:

Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, by Vehicle Type:

• Light
• Medium
• Heavy

Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, by Application:

• HVAC
• Powertrain Cooling
• Fluid Transport
• Others

Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, by Propulsion:

• ICE
• Electric

Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

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