Strategic Intelligence: Banking Predictions 2026

This report identifies the 10 key themes that will impact the banking industry in 2026. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and suggest further reading.

Within bank fraud and cybersecurity, a particular challenge is that in the near term we expect malicious actors to be the prime beneficiaries of AI. Unconstrained by regulation, ethics, and consumer trust, these bad actors will be able to experiment freely to increase the volume, velocity, and variety of attacks. Meanwhile, new entrants will be able to build AI-native experiences unconstrained by legacy, particularly in the area of autonomous finance, driving cost and user experience advantages over incumbents. And ecommerce giants, with their undeniable AI superiority, will bring those capabilities deeper into banking through embedded finance.

Report Scope

• In 2026, banks will spend billions more on AI but will continue to be frustrated by the time it takes (and money it costs) to deliver concrete return on investment, driving a focus on metrics such as containment rate and customer satisfaction to maintain momentum.
• Bank fraud will increase at a faster rate than in previous years, across a variety of new attack vectors, making it harder to protect consumers just as it becomes more important to do so.
• Mortgage market share will redistribute more sharply away from under-digitized incumbent providers, toward a variety of new digital-first entrants, as incumbents will struggle to balance tactical time-to-market imperatives against long-term strategic considerations.

Reasons to Buy

• This report is essential for senior executives at financial services companies seeking to understand how the top 10 banking themes will drive competitive distance between leading providers of consumer financial services across the next 12 months.
• Understand the wide-ranging impact of AI across all key themes.
• Learn how the impact of ESG on banking strategies is changing and evolving.