Ammonia Market Outlook, 2030

The ammonia industry is a critical component of the global chemical sector, serving as the backbone of agricultural productivity and various industrial processes. Ammonia (NH₃), a colorless gas with a pungent smell, is primarily used to manufacture fertilizers such as urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate. This application alone accounts for more than 70% of global ammonia consumption, underscoring its indispensable role in ensuring food security for the growing global population. With the rising demand for agricultural output, especially in emerging economies, the need for nitrogen-based fertilizers continues to climb, driving the expansion of the ammonia industry.

Produced predominantly via the Haber-Bosch process, which combines nitrogen from the air with hydrogen typically derived from natural gas, ammonia production is highly energy-intensive and heavily reliant on fossil fuels, making it both economically and environmentally significant. Beyond agriculture, ammonia is extensively used in industrial applications such as the production of explosives, textiles, pharmaceuticals, refrigeration, water treatment, and cleaning solutions. In refrigeration, anhydrous ammonia remains a preferred choice due to its high energy efficiency and low environmental impact compared to synthetic refrigerants.

In the water treatment industry, ammonia is often used in chloramination processes to disinfect municipal water supplies. Its versatility and chemical properties make ammonia a vital building block in multiple sectors. Furthermore, ammonia is increasingly being explored as a potential energy carrier and hydrogen storage medium, especially in the context of the global energy transition. As countries work toward decarbonization goals, "green ammonia" - produced using renewable energy and electrolysis instead of fossil fuels - has emerged as a promising pathway for reducing the carbon footprint of both agriculture and energy systems.

According to the research report “Global Ammonia Market Outlook, 2030”, the global market is projected to reach market size of USD 116.87 Billion by 2030 increasing from USD 86.42 in 2024, growing with 5.27% CAGR by 2025-30. The ammonia industry, however, faces notable challenges. One major concern is the environmental impact associated with conventional ammonia production, which is responsible for a significant share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Natural gas, used in the production of hydrogen for ammonia synthesis, is both a costly input and a source of carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, there is increasing pressure on producers to adopt more sustainable and less carbon-intensive manufacturing methods.

Technological innovations and government policies supporting green technologies are pushing the industry toward the development and deployment of green ammonia production methods. However, high capital costs, scalability concerns, and the need for robust renewable energy infrastructure remain barriers to widespread adoption. Regionally, the Asia-Pacific dominates the ammonia market due to its vast agricultural needs, dense population, and rapid industrialization.

Countries like China and India are among the top producers and consumers of ammonia, driven by their massive fertilizer demand and expanding chemical industries. North America and Europe also hold significant shares in the ammonia landscape, with growing interest in sustainable ammonia for clean energy and hydrogen export markets. Investments in ammonia infrastructure, especially in ports, storage, and shipping, are on the rise as global trade in ammonia is expected to expand.

Market Drivers

• Surging Demand for Fertilizers to Support Global Food Security: The most significant driver of the ammonia industry is its dominant role in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonium nitrate. As the global population continues to rise, particularly in developing regions, the need for increased agricultural productivity intensifies. Countries with growing food demands are investing heavily in fertilizer-intensive farming to maximize crop yields, thereby driving sustained demand for ammonia.
• Emerging Role of Ammonia in Clean Energy Transition: Ammonia is increasingly being viewed as a promising carrier of hydrogen and a low-carbon fuel alternative, particularly in shipping and power generation. Unlike hydrogen gas, ammonia is easier to store and transport. The rise of green ammonia - produced using renewable energy - aligns with global decarbonization efforts, making it a pivotal component in future energy strategies.

Market Challenges

• High Carbon Emissions from Conventional Production Methods: Traditional ammonia production using the Haber-Bosch process is energy-intensive and heavily dependent on natural gas, contributing significantly to CO₂ emissions. This makes the industry a major emitter among chemical sectors and places it under scrutiny as countries implement stricter climate policies and carbon pricing mechanisms.
• Infrastructure and Cost Barriers to Green Ammonia Adoption: While green ammonia presents a sustainable alternative, its adoption is hindered by high production costs, limited renewable energy capacity, and underdeveloped infrastructure. The technology is still in the early stages, and large-scale deployment requires significant investment and global collaboration to reach commercial viability.

Market Trends

• Rapid Expansion of Green Ammonia Projects Worldwide: Numerous pilot and commercial-scale green ammonia plants are being announced across Europe, Asia, and Australia, backed by public-private partnerships and clean energy funds. These projects are exploring the integration of renewable power sources like solar and wind with electrolysis to produce zero-emission ammonia.
• Strategic Partnerships and Trade Growth in Ammonia as an Energy Carrier: International collaborations between energy exporters and importers are on the rise to build an ammonia-based trade network. Countries such as Japan and South Korea are entering long-term agreements with ammonia producers to secure green ammonia for co-firing in power plants and for hydrogen import strategies, positioning ammonia as a global energy commodity.

Fertilizers lead the ammonia market because over 70% of global ammonia production is dedicated to nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are essential for boosting agricultural productivity and meeting growing global food demands.

The fertilizer segment dominates the ammonia market primarily due to the crucial role that ammonia plays in nitrogen fertilization, which is vital for plant growth. Ammonia is the foundational raw material for producing widely used nitrogenous fertilizers such as urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate. As the global population continues to grow - particularly in regions such as Asia and Africa - the demand for food has intensified, pressuring farmers to increase crop yields on limited arable land. Fertilizers enriched with nitrogen derived from ammonia help replenish soil nutrients and enhance plant productivity, making them indispensable to modern agriculture.

This consistent and large-scale use has made fertilizers the primary application of ammonia by far. Moreover, countries with agriculture-centric economies rely heavily on ammonia-based fertilizers to support food security and export potential. Seasonal agricultural cycles and government subsidy programs also contribute to regular spikes in demand. While emerging uses of ammonia in clean energy and industry are gaining attention, they remain comparatively small, reinforcing fertilizers as the dominant force in the ammonia market for the foreseeable future.

Agriculture is leading in the ammonia market because ammonia is the primary building block for nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are essential for enhancing crop yields and sustaining global food production.

The dominance of agriculture in the ammonia market stems from the fundamental role that ammonia plays in modern farming practices. Ammonia is the key ingredient used to produce nitrogen fertilizers like urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate, which are vital for replenishing soil nutrients and promoting healthy plant growth. As the global population continues to rise, so does the need to increase food production, particularly in regions with limited arable land and rapidly expanding urban populations. To meet this challenge, farmers rely heavily on ammonia-derived fertilizers to improve crop yields and ensure consistent agricultural output.

In many developing countries, where agriculture is the backbone of the economy, ammonia demand is closely tied to national food security strategies and government-supported fertilizer distribution programs. Furthermore, with climate change and soil degradation posing growing threats to food systems, efficient fertilization using ammonia-based products remains a core solution for maintaining soil fertility and agricultural productivity. While other industries also utilize ammonia, such as refrigeration and chemical manufacturing, none match the scale or consistency of demand generated by the agricultural sector, making it the leading consumer of ammonia worldwide.

Anhydrous ammonia is leading in the ammonia market because it offers a highly concentrated and cost-effective source of nitrogen, making it the preferred choice for large-scale agricultural fertilization and industrial applications.

Anhydrous ammonia dominates the ammonia market due to its high nitrogen content - approximately 82% - which makes it one of the most efficient and potent nitrogen fertilizers available. It is particularly favored in commercial agriculture, where large-scale crop production requires consistent, reliable, and economical fertilization methods. Because it is applied directly into the soil using specialized equipment, anhydrous ammonia minimizes nitrogen loss and ensures rapid nutrient availability to crops, contributing to higher yields. Its widespread use is especially prevalent in regions such as North America, where farming operations are vast and mechanized, allowing for the safe handling and application of this pressurized gas.

Additionally, anhydrous ammonia plays a vital role in industrial processes, including the manufacture of nitric acid, explosives, and synthetic fibers. Its gaseous form at ambient conditions and its ability to be stored and transported as a liquid under pressure make it versatile and logistically efficient. While safety concerns exist due to its caustic and toxic nature, proper handling protocols and infrastructure have made it a dependable and economical choice across sectors. These combined agricultural and industrial advantages explain why anhydrous ammonia remains the leading form in the global ammonia market.

Grey/brown ammonia leads the ammonia market because it is produced using well-established, cost-effective methods reliant on natural gas or coal, making it the most economically viable option for large-scale production despite environmental concerns.

Grey and brown ammonia dominate the global ammonia market due to their widespread production through conventional processes such as steam methane reforming (SMR) and coal gasification. Grey ammonia is derived primarily from natural gas, while brown ammonia uses coal as its feedstock - both of which are abundant and historically low-cost energy sources. These production methods have been industrially optimized over decades, resulting in mature infrastructure, lower capital investment, and high output efficiency, which are critical factors for meeting the massive global demand driven by agriculture and industrial sectors.

In particular, regions such as China and India, where coal is plentiful and inexpensive, rely heavily on brown ammonia to support their fertilizer and chemical industries. Although these forms of ammonia emit substantial amounts of carbon dioxide, making them environmentally unsustainable in the long term, they remain the most cost-effective and accessible choices for producers, especially in developing markets where green energy infrastructure is still limited. Furthermore, the global shift toward low-carbon alternatives like green and blue ammonia is in its early stages, with high costs and technological barriers preventing widespread adoption.

Asia-Pacific is leading in the ammonia market due to its massive agricultural demand, rapidly expanding population, and strong industrial base, all of which drive high consumption of ammonia for fertilizers and chemical production.

The Asia-Pacific region holds the largest share in the global ammonia market primarily because of its heavy reliance on ammonia-based fertilizers to support large-scale agricultural activities. Countries such as China and India, which are among the most populous in the world, face ongoing pressure to ensure food security for their growing populations.

This has led to extensive use of nitrogen-rich fertilizers - produced using ammonia - to boost crop yields and sustain farming on limited arable land. In addition to agriculture, Asia-Pacific's strong manufacturing and industrial sectors also contribute to high ammonia demand, as the compound is essential in producing chemicals, plastics, textiles, and explosives.

The region is home to some of the world's largest ammonia producers and consumers, with significant government investments and subsidies supporting fertilizer production and distribution. Furthermore, abundant coal reserves in countries like China and Indonesia enable low-cost production of brown ammonia, supporting local supply and export potential. While environmental concerns are pushing for cleaner ammonia technologies, cost and infrastructure advantages continue to favor conventional grey and brown ammonia in the region.

• In April 2024, JERA and CF Industries are evaluating a joint venture agreement to construct a low-carbon ammonia plant with an estimated 1.4 million metric tons capacity. JERA is considering acquiring 48% ownership of the project and has plans to procure over 500,000 metric tons of low-carbon ammonia annually to meet Japan's demand for low-carbon fuels.
• In April 2024, R. Simplot's commitment to energy efficiency is evident through prestigious recognitions for its fertilizer plants and potato processing facility, where its two fertilizer plants earned 2023 ENERGY STAR certification, showcasing their energy efficiency. Additionally, the Portage la Prairie Potato Processing Facility received Industry Certification for 2023. Simplot is also a leading frozen food manufacturer, supplying high-quality frozen potatoes (including French fries), vegetables, and other processed foods to retailers, restaurants, and foodservice operators worldwide.
• In March 2024, Yara partnered with GHC SAOC, a subsidiary of Acme Cleantech. Acme will supply Yara with ammonia produced with reduced CO2 emissions through this partnership. The agreement covers the delivery of 100,000 tons of renewable ammonia per year.

Considered in this report:

• Historic Year: 2019
• Base year: 2024
• Estimated year: 2025
• Forecast year: 2030

Aspects covered in this report:

• Ammonia Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Production Method:

• Grey/Brown
• Blue
• Green
• Turquoise

By End-Use Industry:

• Agriculture
• Chemical Manufacturing
• Food & Beverage
• Wastewater Treatment
• Others (Mining & Metallurgy, Construction, Power Generation, etc..)

By Chemical Form:

• Anhydrous Ammonia
• Aqueous Ammonia

The approach of the report:

This report consists of a combined approach of primary as well as secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and listing out the companies that are present in the market. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual report of companies, analyzing the government generated reports and databases.

After gathering the data from secondary sources primary research was conducted by making telephonic interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducted trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. Post this we have started doing primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting consumers in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once we have primary data with us we have started verifying the details obtained from secondary sources.

Intended audience:

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations & organizations related to agriculture industry, government bodies and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing & presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.