Recent political changes, chiefly Donald Trump taking office for the second time in Q1 2025, have shaken the markets, and have had a significant impact on a range of energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles. This report will assess how recent tariffs will affect the region’s energy transition, as well as the development stage of a range of energy transition technologies, including renewables, energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable refineries, CCUS and hydrogen. It will also highlight who the current and future leaders are for each of these technologies, and which North American country stands out for active and upcoming capacity.
Recent political changes, chiefly Donald Trump taking office for the second time in Q1 2025, have shaken the markets, and have had a significant impact on a range of energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles, as the President issued a series of executive orders that prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
Key policies impacting the energy sector include the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate. This report will assess how these technologies will be impacted, especially in light of the recent tariffs, with a particular focus on the Chinese supply chain.
Although Trump's policies are likely to slow the region's energy transition, renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will still enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources. Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition.
Recent political changes, chiefly Donald Trump taking office for the second time in Q1 2025, have shaken the markets, and have had a significant impact on a range of energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles, as the President issued a series of executive orders that prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
Key policies impacting the energy sector include the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate. This report will assess how these technologies will be impacted, especially in light of the recent tariffs, with a particular focus on the Chinese supply chain.
Although Trump's policies are likely to slow the region's energy transition, renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will still enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources. Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition.
Key Highlights
- Since taking office for the second time, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that prioritize fossil fuels over renewables. Key policies impacting the energy sector include the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate.
- Although Trump's policies are likely to slow the region's energy transition, renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will still enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources.
- Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition. However, these technologies are at varying stages of development and are subject to different levels of risk, especially in light of Trump's recent tariffs.
Scope
North American climate targets, CO2 emissions, Trump’s recent tariffs, renewable energy potential, leaders in renewable energy and energy storage, renewable energy policies, power consumption and demand, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, electric vehicle sales, upcoming renewable refineries, SAFs, CCUS outlook, upcoming CCS projects, hydrogen policies, upcoming hydrogen capacity by stage, type and end use.Reasons to Buy
- Assess key changes the Trump administration has implemented to shift the US’ focus away from renewables and back to fossil fuel development and exports.
- Assess how the recent Trump tariffs will impact key energy transition technologies, and which countries have the US tariffs affected the most.
- Identify who the key players are in a range of energy transition technologies, in terms of owners, as well as equipment manufacturers and EPC providers.
- Identify the development stage and legislative framework the following energy transition technologies are currently in, amid geopolitical changes: renewables, energy storage, EVs, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Sector Grid and Leaders
- Trump’s Newest Tariffs
- Power Outlook & Generation
- Renewable Energy and Net-Zero Emissions Targets
- Power Capacity Share Outlook
- Power Generation Share Outlook
- Share of Renewable Generation by Country
- Thermal Power: Decommissioning & Emissions
- Major Players in Renewable Power, Energy Storage
- Energy Storage Outlook
- Top Battery Energy Storage Projects and Policies, Electric Vehicles
- EV Sales and Adoption Forecasts
- Regional Policies, Renewable fuels
- Renewable diesel
- SAFs
- Ethanol and FAME biodiesel
- Largest Active and Upcoming Renewable Refineries
- Regional Policies, CCUS
- CCUS Status and Outlook
- Largest Active and Upcoming Projects
- Regional Policies, Hydrogen
- Capacity Outlook and Development Stages
- Key Players
- Active and Upcoming Projects
- High-case and Low-case Scenarios
- Hydrogen End-Use Sectors
- Regional Policies
- Sector grid and leaders
- Trump’s tariffs’ effect on energy transition technologies
- NA renewable energy and net-zero emissions’ targets
- Top 10 solar EPC providers in NA
- Top 10 solar equipment manufacturers in NA
- Top 10 wind EPC providers in NA
- Top 10 wind equipment manufacturers in NA
- Top 10 active and upcoming energy storage projects
- Top 10 active and upcoming renewable refineries
- Top 10 active and upcoming standalone carbon capture projects
- Top 10 combined CCUS and standalone storage projects
- Top 10 active and upcoming low-carbon hydrogen plants
- NA annual CO2 emissions, 2000-2023
- NA power capacity share, 2018-2035
- NA power capacity share, 2025
- NA power capacity share, 2035
- NA power generation share, 2018-2035
- NA renewable generation by type, 2018-2035
- Renewable share of total power generation (incl. large hydropower), 2025-2035
- NA upcoming and decommissioning thermal capacity, 2025-2035
- Annual CO2 emissions from thermal power in NA, 2010-2023
- Top 10 owners of active and upcoming solar PV capacity in NA
- Top 10 owners of active and upcoming wind capacity in NA
- NA cumulative energy storage capacity by technology, 2020-2030
- NA transmission investment, 2022-2027
- BEV sales forecast, 2020-2035
- NA BEV share of LV sales, 2020-3032
- NA RD production capacity, 2020-2030
- NA top 10 companies for 2030 RD capacity
- NA SAF production capacity, 2020-2030
- NA top 10 companies for 2030 SAF capacity
- NA ethanol production capacity, 2020-2030
- NA FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2020-2030
- NA CCUS capacity, 2020-2030
- NA top 10 CCUS facility industries by 2030 capacity
- Top 5 regions for active and upcoming capacity up to 2030
- NA low-carbon hydrogen production by development stage, 2025-2030
- Top 20 companies’ net capacity share in North American low-carbon hydrogen projects in 2030
- NA low-carbon hydrogen capacity scenarios, 2025-2030
- NA target end-use sectors for low-carbon hydrogen
- Percentage of NA low-carbon hydrogen production by consumer industry
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- NextEra Energy
- Iberdrola SA
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc
- Repsol SA
- Engie
- Toyota
- Tesla
- Stellantis
- Marathon Petroleum
- Azure Sustainable Fuels Corp
- DG Fuels
- ExxonMobil
- Occidental Petroleum
- Archer-Daniels-Midland
- Air Products and Chemicals
- ExxonMobil
- Avina Clean Hydrogen Inc
- RWE AG
- Brookfield Corp
- Intersect Power Inc
- Invenergy LLC
- Solar Proponent LLC
- Shell plc
- The AES Corp
- Electricite de France SA
- Orsted AS
- Enel SpA
- Energias de Portugal SA
- Pattern Energy Group
- Invenergy LLC
- XPLR Infrastructure LP
- Swinerton Renewable Energy Inc
- McCarthy Building Companies
- First Solar Inc
- Quanta Services Inc
- MA Mortenson Co
- EMJ Corp
- Rosedin Electric Inc
- PCL Constructors Inc
- SOLV Energy LLC
- TotalEnergies SE
- First Solar Inc
- JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
- Canadian Solar Inc
- Hanwha Solutions Corp
- Trina Solar Co Ltd
- JA Solar Technology Co Ltd
- LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd
- Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd
- Waaree Energies Ltd
- Vestas Wind Systems AS
- MasTec Inc
- Quanta Services Inc
- Renewable Energy System Holdings Ltd
- Siemens Energy AG
- Fagen Inc
- Borea Constitution ULC
- Acciona SA
- Amec Black & Donald Ltd
- General Electric Co
- Nordex SE
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
- Enercon GmbH
- Suzlon Energy Ltd
- Senvion SA
- Clipper Windpower LLC
- Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd
- Chevron Corp
- Valero Energy Corp
- Darling Ingredients Inc
- HF Sinclair Corp
- Neste Corp
- CVR Energy Inc
- ExxonMobil Corp
- Global Clean Energy
- Eni SpA
- Nacero Inc
- Gron Fuels LLC
- Phillips 66
- Next Renewables Fuels Inc
- Gevo Inc
- CVR Energy Inc
- Calumet Inc
- Prairie State Energy Campus LLC
- The Mitchell Group Inc
- Abu Dhabi National Oil Corp
- BW Group
- Clean Hydrogen Works
- Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd
- Calpine Corp
- Nebraska Public Power District
- Basin Electric Power Coop
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
- Pembina Pipeline Corp
- TC Energy Corporation
- Equinor ASA
- Carbonvert LLC
- Tailwater Capital LLC
- Enagas SA
- Natural Resource Partners LP
- TDL Partners Ltd
- Nutrien Ltd
- Bluestar Energy Capital LLC
- Bear Head Energy Inc
- TransGas Development Systems
- HIF Global
- Newpoint Gas LLC
- ProtonH2
- MMEX Resources Corp
- Bakken Energy LLC
- World Energy Gh2 Inc
- Canadian Natural Resources
- Atco Ltd
- Suncor Energy Inc.
