Co-Refining - Global Strategic Business Report

The global market for Co-Refining was estimated at US$40.8 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$52.7 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2024 to 2030. This comprehensive report provides an in-depth analysis of market trends, drivers, and forecasts, helping you make informed business decisions. The report includes the most recent global tariff developments and how they impact the Co-Refining market.

Global Co-Refining Market - Key Trends & Drivers Summarized

Why Is Co-Refining Emerging as a Transitional Strategy in the Decarbonization of Liquid Fuels?

Co-refining has emerged as a critical pathway in the global energy transition, enabling petroleum refineries to incorporate renewable feedstocks such as bio-oils, fats, and greases into conventional refining processes to produce lower-carbon fuels. Rather than constructing standalone biorefineries, energy companies are increasingly leveraging existing infrastructure to co-process biomass-derived intermediates alongside crude oil, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining production continuity and cost efficiency.

The appeal of co-refining lies in its ability to blend sustainability with scalability. It supports the production of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and other drop-in fuels that meet international standards without requiring modifications to engines, pipelines, or storage facilities. In an industry under intense pressure to reduce Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, co-refining offers an immediate, capital-efficient decarbonization lever while longer-term infrastructure transitions are still underway.

What Technological Advances Are Expanding Feedstock Flexibility and Process Integration?

Technological innovation is enabling greater integration of diverse renewable feedstocks into traditional refining units. Hydroprocessing units especially hydrocrackers and hydrotreaters are being modified to accept bio-oils derived from waste fats, vegetable oils, lignocellulosic biomass, and pyrolysis oils. Catalytic co-processing techniques are being developed to handle high oxygen content, stabilize reactive intermediates, and minimize catalyst deactivation. These innovations reduce the need for feedstock pretreatment and improve yield efficiency.

Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units are also being explored for co-refining applications, particularly in facilities aiming to produce gasoline-range hydrocarbons from renewable sources. Advanced modeling and process simulation tools are assisting refiners in optimizing feed ratios, minimizing carbon loss, and maximizing product selectivity. Integration with hydrogen production systems such as green hydrogen or hydrogen from renewable natural gas (RNG) is being explored to further enhance the carbon intensity (CI) profile of final fuel products.

Lifecycle assessment and real-time emissions tracking are becoming integral to co-refining setups. Digital twins and AI-enabled refinery control systems allow for dynamic optimization of blend compositions based on feedstock availability, carbon credit valuations, and operational constraints. These technologies are transforming co-refining from an experimental pathway to a commercially viable and technically scalable process within both integrated majors and independent refiners.

Who Are the Key Stakeholders and How Are Policy Frameworks Influencing Adoption?

The primary adopters of co-refining technologies are oil majors, national oil companies, and independent refiners seeking to meet low-carbon fuel mandates without retiring productive assets prematurely. In North America, companies like Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 are actively investing in co-processing capabilities to comply with the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). In Europe, TotalEnergies and Neste have pioneered co-refining strategies in response to the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), which mandates increasing shares of advanced biofuels in the transport sector.

Government incentives are playing a catalytic role. Tax credits, renewable identification numbers (RINs), and carbon intensity benchmarking are encouraging refiners to co-process renewable inputs. In Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea, co-refining is seen as a pathway to producing SAF for export and domestic use, aligned with ICAO's CORSIA targets. Meanwhile, Brazil is exploring co-processing sugarcane-derived oils, and India has launched pilot programs blending waste oils into diesel production streams.

Fuel blenders, aircraft operators, and environmental regulators are increasingly recognizing co-refined fuels as credible, near-term decarbonization tools. Certification bodies such as ASTM International and the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) are defining standards for co-refined SAF and diesel, ensuring compatibility, sustainability, and traceability across global markets.

What Is Driving the Global Upsurge in Co-Refining Capacity Investments?

The growth in the co-refining market is driven by a convergence of technological readiness, regulatory alignment, and financial prudence. Unlike standalone biofuel facilities, co-refining leverages existing assets, skilled labor, and permitting frameworks allowing refiners to diversify product offerings with minimal capital investment. This asset-light model is particularly attractive in a period of margin compression and regulatory uncertainty.

Decarbonization targets across the aviation, marine, and freight sectors are creating robust demand for low-carbon fuels. Co-refining supports the scale-up of SAF and renewable diesel without waiting for greenfield biorefineries to materialize. Furthermore, supply chain flexibility where refiners can dynamically switch between crude and bio-based inputs enhances resilience in feedstock procurement and margin management.

Carbon pricing, ESG pressures, and investor expectations are also pushing refiners to reduce their carbon intensity and publish climate-aligned capital expenditure strategies. Co-refining serves as a tangible, measurable step toward net-zero pathways, making it a strategic bridge between fossil dependence and bio-based futures. As certification mechanisms mature and feedstock markets globalize, co-refining is set to become a mainstream, transitional solution in the evolving low-carbon fuel economy.

Key Insights:

• Market Growth: Understand the significant growth trajectory of the Crude Oil Co-Refining segment, which is expected to reach US$20.3 Billion by 2030 with a CAGR of a 5.8%. The Biomass Co-Refining segment is also set to grow at 3.1% CAGR over the analysis period.
• Regional Analysis: Gain insights into the U.S. market, valued at $11.1 Billion in 2024, and China, forecasted to grow at an impressive 8.2% CAGR to reach $11.0 Billion by 2030. Discover growth trends in other key regions, including Japan, Canada, Germany, and the Asia-Pacific.

Why You Should Buy This Report:

• Detailed Market Analysis: Access a thorough analysis of the Global Co-Refining Market, covering all major geographic regions and market segments.
• Competitive Insights: Get an overview of the competitive landscape, including the market presence of major players across different geographies.
• Future Trends and Drivers: Understand the key trends and drivers shaping the future of the Global Co-Refining Market.
• Actionable Insights: Benefit from actionable insights that can help you identify new revenue opportunities and make strategic business decisions.

Key Questions Answered:

• How is the Global Co-Refining Market expected to evolve by 2030?
• What are the main drivers and restraints affecting the market?
• Which market segments will grow the most over the forecast period?
• How will market shares for different regions and segments change by 2030?
• Who are the leading players in the market, and what are their prospects?

Report Features:

• Comprehensive Market Data: Independent analysis of annual sales and market forecasts in US$ Million from 2024 to 2030.
• In-Depth Regional Analysis: Detailed insights into key markets, including the U.S., China, Japan, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa.
• Company Profiles: Coverage of players such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, BP PLC, Chevron Corporation, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and more.
• Complimentary Updates: Receive free report updates for one year to keep you informed of the latest market developments.

Some of the 39 companies featured in this Co-Refining market report include:

• Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
• BP PLC
• Chevron Corporation
• China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
• China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
• ConocoPhillips
• Eni S.p.A.
• Equinor ASA
• ExxonMobil Corporation
• Marathon Petroleum Corporation
• OMV AG
• Petrobras - Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.
• Phillips 66
• Preem AB
• Repsol S.A.
• Royal Dutch Shell plc
• Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco)
• Suncor Energy Inc.
• TotalEnergies SE
• Valero Energy Corporation

This edition integrates the latest global trade and economic shifts as of June 2025 into comprehensive market analysis. Key updates include:

• Tariff and Trade Impact: Insights into global tariff negotiations across 180+ countries, with analysis of supply chain turbulence, sourcing disruptions, and geographic realignment. Special focus on 2025 as a pivotal year for trade tensions, including updated perspectives on the Trump-era tariffs.
• Adjusted Forecasts and Analytics: Revised global and regional market forecasts through 2030, incorporating tariff effects, economic uncertainty, and structural changes in globalization. Includes segmentation by product, technology, type, material, distribution channel, application, and end-use, with historical analysis since 2015.
• Strategic Market Dynamics: Evaluation of revised market prospects, regional outlooks, and key economic indicators such as population and urbanization trends.
• Innovation & Technology Trends: Latest developments in product and process innovation, emerging technologies, and key industry drivers shaping the competitive landscape.
• Competitive Intelligence: Updated global market share estimates for 2025, competitive positioning of major players (Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial), and refined focus on leading global brands and core players.
• Expert Insight & Commentary: Strategic analysis from economists, trade experts, and domain specialists to contextualize market shifts and identify emerging opportunities.
• Complimentary Update: Buyers receive a free July 2025 update with finalized tariff impacts, new trade agreement effects, revised projections, and expanded country-level coverage.