A fully autonomous car can be defined as a car that is able to drive from an arbitrary point A to another arbitrary point B in the same environmental conditions as manageable by a human driver. This is the last step on a continuum of more or less autonomous cars. Many cars are today equipped with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) features that partly enable autonomous driving.
The research expects rapid adoption of autonomous vehicle technology in the coming years
SAE International has developed a six level standard (0-5), which describes the different levels of automated driving. At Level 0 there is no autonomy at all. Level 1 introduces a single assistive feature, such as adaptive cruise control or lane keeping, but the driver must remain in control. At Level 2, the car can manage both steering and speed simultaneously under certain conditions, but the driver must stay attentive and ready to take over at any moment. Level 3 allows the vehicle to handle all driving tasks in specific scenarios, letting the driver divert attention from the road, though the driver must be able to resume control when prompted. Level 4 provides full autonomy and the driver is not at any point expected to regain control of the vehicle as long as the vehicle is in the operational design domain.
Level 5 represents complete autonomy, enabling the vehicle to drive anywhere, in any conditions, with no human input needed at all. In 2024, the research estimates that 68.6 percent of all sold cars globally fulfilled requirements for SAE level 1 (L1) automated driving and higher levels. About 40.5 percent of all vehicles sold in 2024 was categorised under the L1 segment while 28.1 percent of all vehicles sold in 2024 was categorised under the L2 segment. Only a very small percentage of the cars sold during 2024 could be categorised as L3. L3 was only available on select Mercedes-Benz in the US (Nevada and California) and select BMW models in Germany during the year. In 2030, the research forecasts that 90.4 percent of all cars sold globally will fulfil requirements for L1-L4 automated driving.
About 27.7 percent of all new cars sold in 2030 are then expected to be categorised as L1 and 51.2 percent as L2. About 8.6 percent of all new cars, corresponding to 7.7 million vehicles, are expected to be sold with L3 capabilities in 2030 as additional OEMs plan to launch L3 vehicles in the coming years. the research expects that 2.6 million passenger cars will be sold with level 4 capabilities in 2030, corresponding to an attach rate of 2.9 percent. Sophisticated ADAS has become a major differentiator for automakers. There are two ADAS offerings that comply with Level 3 SAE requirements today.
In 2023, Mercedes-Benz launched Drive Pilot that provides conditional automated driving at speeds of up to 95 km/h on select roads in the US. Since August 2024, BMW also offers Level 3 autonomous driving through its BMW Personal Pilot L3 system, initially available on the new 7 Series in Germany. Other OEMs also offer sophisticated ADAS including Tesla (Autopilot and Full Self-Driving), Ford (BlueCruise), General Motors (Super Cruise) and Audi (Audi pre sense). Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai offer comprehensive safety suites including adaptive cruise control, lane assist and emergency braking systems. Chinese OEMs are gradually taking the lead when it comes to introducing sophisticated ADAS. Leading Chinese OEMs include BYD Auto, Changan, Chery, Geely, GWM, Leapmotor, Li Auto, NIO and SAIC. There are several companies today that offer fully autonomous vehicle taxi services primarily in the US and China.
Examples of leading robotaxi players include Waymo, Baidu (Apollo), Pony.AI, WeRide, DiDi Autonomous Driving, May Mobility, Avride, AutoX, MOIA and Zoox. Most of the robotaxi services can be found in China and the US. There are a number of Tier 1 suppliers, semiconductor solution providers, technology companies, software companies and startups that brings technology to the market. Leading global Tier 1 suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, Denso, ZF Group, Magna International, Valeo, Forvia, Hitachi Astemo, Aptiv and Hyundai Mobis offer comprehensive product portfolios for ADAS and autonomous driving, including sensors, central computing platforms and integrated autonomous driving solutions. HERE Technologies and TomTom provide map solutions. Leading LiDAR sensor providers include Hesai Technology, Innoviz, Luminar, RoboSense and Seyond.
In China, local Tier 1s and technology companies are challenging the dominance of established foreign suppliers. Examples of leading Chinese Tier 1 suppliers include Desay SV Automotive, Beijing Jingwei HiRain Technologies, DeepRoute.ai, Momenta, Zhuoyu Technology and Huawei. Semiconductor solution providers like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Mobileye, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Ambarella, Renesas Electronics and Texas Instruments are developing System-on-Chips (SoCs) for automated driving. Suppliers of SoCs and related technologies are at the core of the progress in ADAS and autonomous driving, as these provide the high performance computing and AI capabilities needed for autonomous cars.
The report answers the following questions
- What is the current status of the autonomous car industry?
- Which are the autonomous vehicle technology providers?
- What ADAS offerings are available from the leading car OEMs today?
- How will the market evolve in Europe, North America, China, Japan, South Korea and RoW?
- How will emerging AI technologies impact the development of autonomous vehicles?
- What business models are used by car OEMs for ADAS?
- How will the regulatory environment shape the future of the autonomous vehicle industry?
- Which are the key future trends in this industry?
Highlights from the report
- Insights from 30 executive interviews with market leading companies.
- New data on car populations and new registrations worldwide.
- Comprehensive overview of the autonomous vehicle value chain and key applications.
- Detailed profiles of 24 major car OEMs and their ADAS propositions.
- Case studies of 10 robotaxi services.
- In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.
- Market forecasts by region lasting until 2030.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- BMW
- BYD Auto
- Changan Motors
- Chery Group
- Ford Motor Company
- Geely
- General Motors
- Great Wall Motor
- Honda Motor Company
- Hyundai Motor Group
- Jaguar Land Rover
- Leapmotor
- Li Auto
- Mazda Motor Corporation
- Mercedes-Benz Group
- NIO
- Nissan Motor Company
- Renault Group
- SAIC Motor
- Stellantis
- Tesla
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- Volkswagen Group
- Volvo Cars
- Hitachi Astemo
- Huawei
- Hyundai Mobis
- Innoviz
- Jingwei HiRain
- Luminar
- Magna International
- Momenta
- RoboSense
- Seyond
- TomTom
- Valeo
- ZF Group
- Zhuoyu Technology
