2025 Global Recession Will be Avoided; Strategic Supply Chain Diversification Emerges as a Key Growth Lever
Global economic, trade, and investment trends in 2025 are being shaped by a complex interplay of policy pivots and shifting tariff dynamics under the second Trump administration in the United States. Although reciprocal tariffs introduced in early April have been paused for 90 days, key tariffs remain in effect, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, 25% on automobiles, 50% on metals, and 10% on all other imports into the US.
This macroeconomic thought leadership piece breaks down the complexities of tariff policy decisions and outlines tariff policy scenarios (including global retaliatory actions). 2025 GDP growth forecasts for global, advanced, and emerging economies have also been reforecast in the context of the evolving trade war. In the baseline, GDP growth is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025. Recent de-escalations in trade tensions with China, along with progress in US trade negotiations, are expected to support a moderate growth rebound in the second half of 2025.
This piece also presents a comparative analysis of US tariff exposure and trade deficits across key economies, alongside an assessment of the risks and growth implications stemming from the Trump administration’s policies through 2025 and 2026.
Policymakers, corporate strategists, and business leaders can also leverage the outlined strategic recommendations to make well-informed decisions on expansion and investment strategies.
Key Questions Answered:
- Which countries are highly vulnerable to the United States’ volatile trade policies and tariffs?
- Which countries typically have a high goods trade deficit with the US?
- What are the potential tariff developments and growth outcomes for 2025?
- What are the key risks and growth opportunities stemming from global tariff wars?
- What are the key government policy imperatives amidst global trade headwinds?
- What are the corporate policy imperatives to ensure resilience?
Table of Contents
Tariff War Breakdown and Implications for Growth
- Country-Specific Exposure to Trump 2.0 Tariffs
- US Goods Trade Deficit Analysis
- Tariff Visioning Scenarios and Global Growth Outcomes
- Global GDP Growth Outlook
Tariff-Driven Risks, Growth Opportunities, and Policy Imperatives
- Tariff-Induced Macroeconomic Risks and Growth Opportunities
- Government Policy Imperatives
- Corporate Strategy Imperatives
Appendix & Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
