Autonomous Public Transit Market Report 2026

The autonomous public transit market size has grown exponentially in recent years. It will grow from $3.17 billion in 2025 to $3.89 billion in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7%. The growth in the historic period can be attributed to urban congestion challenges, public transport digitization, electric bus adoption, pilot autonomous transit projects, government smart city initiatives.

The autonomous public transit market size is expected to see exponential growth in the next few years. It will grow to $9 billion in 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.3%. The growth in the forecast period can be attributed to smart city investments, zero-emission mobility targets, AI-driven fleet management, autonomous vehicle regulations, public-private transit partnerships. Major trends in the forecast period include deployment of autonomous bus pilots, growth of last-mile autonomous shuttles, integration with smart city platforms, demand for low-emission transit, expansion of on-demand transit models.

The increasing traffic congestion is expected to drive the growth of the autonomous public transit market going forward. Traffic congestion occurs when vehicle volumes exceed roadway capacity, resulting in slower speeds, longer travel times, and vehicular queuing. This congestion is largely driven by rapid urban population growth, rising vehicle ownership, and increased demand for road infrastructure. Autonomous public transit addresses these challenges by optimizing route efficiency, reducing the number of private vehicles on the road, and promoting shared mobility solutions that maximize passenger capacity while minimizing travel time and fuel consumption. For instance, in May 2024, the UK Department for Transport reported that vehicles traveled 330.8 billion miles on roads in Great Britain in 2023, a 2.2% increase from 2022. Therefore, rising traffic congestion is propelling the growth of the autonomous public transit market.

Key players in the autonomous public transit market are focusing on developing innovative solutions, such as Level 4 driverless vehicles, to advance the integration of autonomous technology into public transportation systems. A Level 4 driverless vehicle is fully autonomous within specific conditions or designated areas, requiring no human intervention. For instance, in August 2024, Karsan, a Turkey-based autonomous vehicle manufacturer, partnered with ADASTEC Corporation, a U.S.-based autonomous driving technology company, to launch the Autonomous e-ATAK, an automated bus service featuring the world's first Level-4 driverless public vehicle operating on a planned 2.2-kilometer route in Arbon. The Autonomous e-ATAK is equipped with advanced sensor fusion technology, including LiDAR, radar, and cameras, integrated with ADASTEC's flowride.ai software platform to enable safe navigation, real-time decision-making, and full autonomy in complex urban environments.

In July 2023, Transdev Group S.A., a France-based transit mobility solutions provider, acquired First Transit for an undisclosed amount. This acquisition enables Transdev to strengthen its position in the Canadian public transportation market by integrating First Transit's expertise in transit, shuttle services, paratransit, and fleet maintenance. First Transit Inc., a U.S.-based mobility solutions operator, specializes in providing autonomous public transit vehicles.

Major companies operating in the autonomous public transit market report include Amazon.com Inc., AB Volvo, Continental AG, Scania CV AB, Transdev, MAN Truck & Bus, Keolis, Yutong Bus Co. Ltd., Arrival UK Ltd., Waymo LLC, Nuro Inc., Motional Inc., Karsan, EasyMile, Aurora Innovation, Pony AI Inc., May Mobility, AutoX Inc., LILEE System, Navya, Perrone Robotics Inc.

Asia-Pacific was the largest region in the autonomous public transit market in 2025. Europe is expected to be the fastest-growing region in the forecast period. The regions covered in the autonomous public transit market report include Asia-Pacific, South East Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, Middle East, Africa. The countries covered in the autonomous public transit market report include Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, Russia, South Korea, UK, USA, Canada, Italy, Spain.

The autonomous public transit market consists of revenues earned by entities by providing services such as route planning and optimization services, remote fleet management, and autonomous vehicle maintenance and diagnostics. The market value includes the value of related goods sold by the service provider or included within the service offering. The autonomous public transit market also includes sales of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors, and autonomous driving software platforms. Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods.

The market value is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from the sale of goods and/or services within the specified market and geography through sales, grants, or donations in terms of the currency (in USD unless otherwise specified).

The revenues for a specified geography are consumption values that are revenues generated by organizations in the specified geography within the market, irrespective of where they are produced. It does not include revenues from resales along the supply chain, either further along the supply chain or as part of other products.

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