Middle East and Africa Evaporated Milk Market Outlook, 2030

The Middle East and Africa (MEA) evaporated milk market is experiencing moderate yet consistent growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for shelf-stable dairy products in both urban and semi-urban areas. The region's evolving food habits, rising population, and growing preference for convenient, long-lasting milk products are key factors bolstering demand, especially in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, South Africa, and Nigeria. Raw material availability in MEA is a mixed landscape.

While parts of Africa have favorable dairy farming conditions and potential for local sourcing, countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are heavily dependent on imports of milk powder and feed due to arid climates and limited dairy livestock. This creates a fragmented supply chain that is often vulnerable to international market fluctuations. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the MEA evaporated milk market, disrupting transport, border logistics, and supply chains, especially for imported raw materials and finished dairy products. Lockdowns also affected local dairy farming, processing, and retail activities across several African economies. However, the pandemic also triggered a shift in consumer behavior towards more durable food options, including evaporated milk, boosting domestic demand and providing opportunities for regional producers. In the Gulf, the Gulf Standards Organization (GSO) sets strict quality protocols for dairy imports and manufacturing, while African nations like Uganda enforce national dairy policies under agencies such as the Dairy Development Authority to improve milk quality and support export development. Nonetheless, inconsistencies in cross-border regulations, the dominance of informal dairy sectors in parts of Africa, and limited cold chain infrastructure remain persistent challenges. Moreover, public and private investments in dairy processing technology, rural milk collection centers, and training of dairy farmers are critical to expanding the region’s processing capacity and enhancing product availability.

According to the research report "Middle East and Africa Evaporated Milk Market Outlook, 2030,", the Middle East and Africa Evaporated Milk market is anticipated to grow at more than 2.77% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. The rising urbanization and population growth across MEA, particularly in Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and emerging African economies such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa. These demographic shifts are fueling higher consumption of ready-to-use, shelf-stable food products such as evaporated milk, which fits seamlessly into the fast-paced lifestyles of urban consumers.

In the Gulf region, evaporated milk remains a household staple, widely used in beverages like tea and coffee, while in Africa, it is gaining ground as a cost-effective alternative to fresh milk, especially in areas where cold chain infrastructure is underdeveloped. Economic diversification efforts in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, have also created a more favorable environment for food manufacturing and import substitution, encouraging investments in local dairy processing units and reducing dependency on imports. Countries like the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on imports of powdered and evaporated milk to meet domestic demand. Lockdowns and mobility restrictions triggered a surge in demand for non-perishable food items, boosting sales of evaporated milk as consumers stocked up on essential goods. Moreover, shifting consumer behaviors toward in-home consumption further expanded the product’s footprint in household kitchens, elevating its importance in the regional dairy segment. For instance, Uganda’s Dairy Development Authority is promoting higher standards in processing and licensing. Despite challenges such as high production costs, infrastructure gaps, and fragmented regulatory systems, the MEA evaporated milk market is experiencing steady growth. It is projected to expand further with rising consumer awareness, improved distribution networks, and increased government support for the dairy sector.

Market Drivers

• High Demand for Shelf-Stable Dairy in Hot Climates: One of the strongest drivers in the MEA evaporative milk market is the region's climate and infrastructure, which makes shelf-stable dairy products highly desirable. In many parts of the Middle East and Africa especially in arid or rural regions access to consistent refrigeration is limited, and ambient temperatures are high, leading to faster spoilage of fresh milk. Evaporated milk, with its long shelf life and minimal storage requirements, provides a practical solution for households, food vendors, and institutions. Its resilience in extreme weather conditions has made it a staple in both urban and remote areas. Moreover, it is widely used in tea, coffee, and desserts, reinforcing its role as an everyday essential in many MEA diets.
• Increasing Urbanization and Expansion of Retail Infrastructure: Another key driver is the rapid urbanization occurring across the MEA region, accompanied by the growth of modern retail formats. As cities expand and middle-class populations grow particularly in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa there is increasing consumer demand for packaged, convenient, and hygienic food options. The proliferation of supermarkets, hypermarkets, and convenience stores has improved access to evaporated milk products, driving sales. Additionally, retail chains often promote evaporated milk through bundled offers and discounts, enhancing its visibility and affordability. This urban consumer base values convenience and is increasingly open to incorporating packaged dairy into daily routines.

Market Challenges

• Economic Instability and Income Disparities: A major challenge facing the MEA evaporative milk market is the region’s economic fragmentation and persistent income inequality. While some Gulf countries enjoy high-income levels, large parts of sub-Saharan Africa and the Levant struggle with low purchasing power, inflation, and unemployment. These disparities affect consumer spending behavior, especially for non-essential or premium food products like evaporated milk. In lower-income areas, consumers may prefer cheaper alternatives such as powdered milk or forego dairy entirely during times of financial strain. This economic divide restricts the potential for market expansion in some regions and requires manufacturers to tailor pricing and packaging strategies accordingly.
• Competition from Traditional and Imported Dairy Products: The market also faces stiff competition from both local traditional dairy formats and imported alternatives. In many parts of Africa, raw or locally processed fresh milk remains a staple, especially in pastoralist and farming communities. In the Middle East, imported dairy products especially from Europe and Asia often flood supermarket shelves, offering greater brand diversity and aggressive pricing. Evaporated milk producers must compete not only on taste and functionality but also on brand trust and affordability. In some markets, regulatory hurdles and import duties also affect the competitive landscape, further complicating supply chain and pricing strategies for regional producers.

Market Trends

• Rising Demand for Fortified and Nutritionally Enhanced Products: A significant trend in the MEA region is the increasing demand for fortified evaporated milk products. With growing concerns about malnutrition, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, governments and health organizations are promoting dairy products that are enriched with vitamins (A, D, B12) and minerals like calcium and iron. Manufacturers are responding by developing value-added variants of evaporated milk that support bone health, immune function, and child development. These products are gaining popularity not only in urban centers but also in humanitarian and school feeding programs. This trend is helping reposition evaporated milk as a nutritious, family-oriented product beyond just convenience.
• Growth of Local Brands and Halal-Certified Offerings: Another emerging trend is the rise of local evaporated milk brands and the emphasis on halal certification to cater to Muslim-majority countries across the Middle East and North Africa. Consumers are showing growing preference for regionally produced, culturally aligned dairy products that comply with halal dietary laws. This shift is particularly evident in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where local manufacturing and branding are being prioritized to reduce import dependency. Halal-certified evaporated milk has also become a key export product to Muslim-majority African nations. This trend strengthens domestic dairy industries and promotes consumer loyalty through trust in religious compliance and national branding.

Whole evaporated milk is leading in the MEA (Middle East and Africa) region due to strong consumer preference for full-fat dairy products driven by traditional dietary habits, nutritional needs, and versatile culinary usage.

In many Middle Eastern and African countries, whole milk is viewed not just as a source of sustenance, but as an essential component of daily nutrition, especially for children and the elderly who require higher caloric and fat intake. Traditional recipes in this region from creamy desserts like basbousa and um ali to savory dishes such as curries and stews often incorporate evaporated milk for its creamy texture and enhanced flavor, which is better achieved using whole milk rather than its skimmed counterparts. Furthermore, the higher fat content in whole evaporated milk makes it more shelf-stable and suitable for regions with limited cold-chain infrastructure, a common scenario in rural and semi-urban parts of MEA.

In countries where refrigeration access is inconsistent, consumers tend to prefer products that not only offer nutritional density but also longer storage life an area where whole evaporated milk performs strongly. The MEA region is also characterized by large family sizes and communal cooking practices, which align well with the use of whole evaporated milk in bulk cooking for richer taste and satiety. Additionally, rising income levels in parts of the Gulf and increasing urbanization in African nations are boosting demand for premium and traditional dairy-based products, further reinforcing the preference for full-fat evaporated milk. Government food subsidy programs and humanitarian aid packages in regions experiencing food insecurity also often include whole evaporated milk because of its higher caloric value, which helps address malnutrition effectively.

Offline distribution is leading in the MEA evaporative milk industry due to the dominance of traditional retail infrastructure, consumer preference for in-person shopping, and limited digital penetration in rural and underserved regions.

The offline distribution channel holds a dominant position in the MEA evaporative milk industry largely because of the region's strong reliance on traditional brick-and-mortar retail formats, such as local grocery stores, supermarkets, and open-air markets, which continue to serve as the primary point of access for most consumers. In many parts of the Middle East and Africa, especially rural and semi-urban areas, the digital infrastructure necessary to support widespread e-commerce adoption remains underdeveloped, with limited internet access, low smartphone penetration, and logistical challenges restricting online delivery services.

This digital divide pushes consumers to rely heavily on offline channels that are familiar, accessible, and trusted. Furthermore, purchasing food items like evaporated milk often part of essential, frequent household shopping is deeply embedded in the habit of physical retail visits where consumers can inspect product freshness, packaging, and expiry dates before purchasing. Offline channels also offer the advantage of immediate product availability without wait times for delivery, which is particularly important for low-income households who shop on a daily or weekly basis with tight budgets. Traditional retailers, including mom-and-pop stores and neighborhood kiosks, are also more likely to offer single units or smaller pack sizes of evaporated milk, aligning with the buying preferences of cost-sensitive consumers. Additionally, cultural nuances and language barriers in some regions make it easier for consumers to interact with local shopkeepers who understand their needs better than faceless digital interfaces.

Saudi Arabia is leading in the MEA evaporative milk industry due to its high per capita dairy consumption, strategic investments in food security and dairy processing infrastructure, and strong consumer preference for shelf-stable dairy products in arid climates.

Saudi Arabia has established itself as the leader in the evaporative milk industry across the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, driven by a blend of economic capability, consumer demand, and strategic planning in food and dairy sectors. The Kingdom’s high per capita dairy consumption is a key factor, with evaporated milk playing a central role in both traditional and modern diets. It is widely used in daily household applications such as tea, coffee, desserts, and savory dishes, making it a staple item in Saudi kitchens.

In a country where fresh milk can be difficult to transport and store over long distances due to the extreme desert climate, evaporated milk offers a practical alternative, with its extended shelf life and minimal refrigeration needs. Saudi Arabia’s leadership is also deeply rooted in its proactive approach to food security, including heavy investments in domestic dairy processing and advanced production facilities. Major companies like Almarai and SADAFCO have not only expanded their product lines to include high-quality evaporated milk but also established strong supply chains and distribution networks throughout the Kingdom and across the broader GCC and MEA region. These companies utilize cutting-edge technology and comply with international quality standards, enhancing both output and export capabilities. Government policies have further supported the dairy sector through subsidies, infrastructure development, and incentives for food industry investments, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials and streamlined processing operations. Additionally, the Kingdom’s strategic geographic location allows for efficient trade and export to neighboring countries in the Gulf, North Africa, and parts of East Africa, strengthening its position as a central hub in the regional evaporated milk market.