This comprehensive 412-page intelligence report provides a detailed assessment of artificial intelligence-powered disinformation threats across South America and the Caribbean through 2026. Drawing on analysis of 247 documented campaigns across 33 countries and territories, the report identifies critical vulnerabilities, emerging threat vectors, and strategic implications for regional security, democratic governance, economic stability, and social cohesion.
The assessment reveals a 350-550% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, economic policies, social movements, and regional integration efforts. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 78 distinct AI systems, documentation of 247 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 112 regional experts, comparative analysis of vulnerability factors, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
The assessment reveals a 350-550% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, economic policies, social movements, and regional integration efforts. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
Key findings include:
- Scale & Sophistication: Documented AI disinformation campaigns have increased 250-400% since 2023, with projections of 350-550% growth by Q4 2026.
- Regional Variation: Stark contrasts exist between countries with sophisticated state-sponsored operations and those with primarily electoral-focused campaigns.
- WhatsApp Centrality: The region has developed distinctive capabilities optimized for WhatsApp as a primary disinformation vector.
- State-Sponsored Infrastructure: Venezuela has emerged as a regional leader in state-sponsored disinformation.
- External Actor Competition: Russia, China, and the United States engage in competitive influence operations across the region.
- Democratic Targeting: Several countries have seen disinformation operations explicitly targeting democratic institutions.
- Indigenous Language Exploitation: An emerging threat vector involves AI-generated disinformation in indigenous languages.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 78 distinct AI systems, documentation of 247 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 112 regional experts, comparative analysis of vulnerability factors, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
Countries analyzed in the report:
- Antigua and Barbuda
- Argentina
- Bahamas
- Barbados
- Belize
- Bolivia
- Brazil
- Chile
- Colombia
- Costa Rica
- Cuba
- Dominica
- Dominican Republic
- Ecuador
- El Salvador
- Grenada
- Guatemala
- Guyana
- Haiti
- Honduras
- Jamaica
- Mexico
- Nicaragua
- Panama
- Paraguay
- Peru
- Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Saint Lucia
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
- Suriname
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Uruguay
- Venezuela
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Overview- Current landscape assessment
- DaaS market analysis
- Threat actor ecosystem mapping
- 2026-2030 projection framework
- Strategic implications for regional security
- Electoral integrity degradation
- Economic narrative manipulation
- Social movement infiltration
- Regional integration undermining
- External influence competition
- Actor network analysis
- Capability flow patterns
- Infrastructure assessment
- Target prioritization patterns
- Ecosystem adaptation mechanisms
- Generative AI deepfakes
- LLM-powered propaganda in Spanish, Portuguese, and indigenous languages
- WhatsApp-optimized distribution systems
- Bot armies with 12,000+ coordinated accounts
- Real-time content generation capabilities
- Evolution from human to AI-powered operations
- Hybrid human-machine operations
- Fully autonomous systems
- Attribution challenges
- Operational cost structures
- Democratic transition vulnerabilities
- Resource competition dynamics
- Geopolitical positioning
- Economic development narratives
- Regional integration politics
- Brazil: Political polarization exploitation
- Venezuela: "Communicational Hegemony" doctrine
- Colombia: Peace process narrative manipulation
- Argentina: Economic crisis narrative exploitation
- Mexico: Electoral integrity challenges
- Chile: Constitutional reform targeting
- Cuba: External influence operations
- Peru: Institutional legitimacy undermining
- Dominican Republic: Tourism sector targeting
- Jamaica: Economic development narrative manipulation
Companies Mentioned
- OpenAI
- Anthropic
- Google DeepMind
- Meta AI
- Microsoft
- NVIDIA
- Stability AI
- Midjourney
- Huawei
- Baidu
- Tencent
- SenseTime
- Yandex
- Kaspersky
- Group-IB
- Darktrace
- CrowdStrike
- FireEye
- Recorded Future
- Graphika
