This comprehensive 412-page intelligence report provides a detailed assessment of artificial intelligence-powered disinformation threats across the Continental United States through 2026. Drawing on analysis of 847 documented campaigns across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the report identifies critical vulnerabilities, emerging threat vectors, and strategic implications for national security, democratic governance, economic stability, and social cohesion.
The assessment reveals a 500-800% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, critical infrastructure, economic systems, social divisions, and institutional trust. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the nation.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 103 distinct AI systems, documentation of 847 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 178 national security experts, comparative analysis of vulnerability factors, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
The assessment reveals a 500-800% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, critical infrastructure, economic systems, social divisions, and institutional trust. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the nation.
Key findings include:
- Scale & Sophistication: Documented AI disinformation campaigns have increased 400-600% since 2023, with projections of 500-800% growth by Q4 2026.
- Perfect Storm Convergence: The United States faces a unique convergence of factors creating unprecedented vulnerability.
- State Actor Operations: Russia, China, and Iran have developed specialized AI disinformation capabilities targeting the United States.
- Domestic Amplification: Foreign-originated synthetic content increasingly leverages domestic amplification networks.
- Electoral System Targeting: The decentralized U.S. electoral system presents unique vulnerability patterns.
- Critical Infrastructure Focus: 28% of documented campaigns target critical infrastructure sectors.
- Constitutional Crisis Scenarios: Multiple synthetic content campaigns appear designed to trigger constitutional crises.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 103 distinct AI systems, documentation of 847 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 178 national security experts, comparative analysis of vulnerability factors, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Overview- Current landscape assessment
- DaaS market analysis
- Threat actor ecosystem mapping
- 2026-2030 projection framework
- Strategic implications for national security
- Election interference escalation
- Critical infrastructure manipulation
- Constitutional crisis scenarios
- Social cohesion degradation
- Economic system targeting
- Actor network analysis
- Capability flow patterns
- Infrastructure assessment
- Target prioritization patterns
- Ecosystem adaptation mechanisms
- Generative AI deepfakes
- LLM-powered propaganda with regional dialect precision
- Bot armies with 25,000+ coordinated accounts
- AI + Quantum convergence threats
- Real-time content generation capabilities
- Evolution from human to AI-powered operations
- Hybrid human-machine operations
- Fully autonomous systems
- Attribution challenges
- Operational cost structures
- Global leadership position
- Democratic system significance
- Economic power projection
- Technical infrastructure centrality
- Cultural influence amplification
- Tier 1 (Highest Vulnerability): AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI, NV, NC, FL, TX, OH
- Tier 2 (Elevated Vulnerability): MN, VA, CO, NH, ME, AK, NM, MT, MO, IA, SC, TN
- Tier 3 (Moderate Vulnerability): IL, NY, CA, WA, OR, MD, MA, CT, NJ, DE, RI, VT, HI, DC
- Tier 4 (Lower Priority Targeting): AL, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SD, UT, WV, WY
Companies Mentioned
- OpenAI
- Anthropic
- Google DeepMind
- Meta AI
- Microsoft
- NVIDIA
- Stability AI
- Midjourney
- Huawei
- Baidu
- Tencent
- SenseTime
- Yandex
- Kaspersky
- Group-IB
- Darktrace
- CrowdStrike
- FireEye
- Recorded Future
- Graphika