This comprehensive 412-page intelligence report provides a detailed assessment of artificial intelligence-powered disinformation threats across the United Kingdom and Europe through 2026. Drawing on analysis of 412 documented campaigns across all 27 EU member states and the UK, the report identifies critical vulnerabilities, emerging threat vectors, and strategic implications for regional security, democratic governance, economic stability, and social cohesion.
The assessment reveals a 450-700% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, EU institutional integrity, energy security, migration narratives, and transatlantic relations. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 97 distinct AI systems, documentation of 412 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 143 regional experts, comparative analysis of regulatory frameworks, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
The assessment reveals a 450-700% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, EU institutional integrity, energy security, migration narratives, and transatlantic relations. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
Key findings include:
- Scale & Sophistication: Documented AI disinformation campaigns have increased 300-450% since 2023, with projections of 450-700% growth by Q4 2026.
- Regional Vulnerability Patterns: Despite strong institutional frameworks, Europe faces significant vulnerability variation.
- State Actor Dominance: Russia remains the primary architect of sophisticated AI disinformation operations targeting Europe.
- EU Institutional Targeting: 37% of documented campaigns target EU decision-making processes and institutional legitimacy.
- Post-Brexit Exploitation: The UK-EU relationship remains a primary narrative battleground.
- Energy Security Focus: 31% of documented campaigns target energy policy.
- Detection Challenges: The gap between generation and detection capabilities continues to widen.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 97 distinct AI systems, documentation of 412 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 143 regional experts, comparative analysis of regulatory frameworks, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
Countries analyzed in the report:
- Austria
- Belgium
- Bulgaria
- Croatia
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hungary
- Ireland
- Italy
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Malta
- Netherlands
- Poland
- Portugal
- Romania
- Slovakia
- Slovenia
- Spain
- Sweden
- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Overview- Current landscape assessment
- DaaS market analysis
- Threat actor ecosystem mapping
- 2026-2030 projection framework
- Strategic implications for European security
- Election interference escalation
- EU institutional legitimacy challenges
- Energy policy manipulation
- Migration narrative weaponization
- Transatlantic alliance strain operations
- Actor network analysis
- Capability flow patterns
- Infrastructure assessment
- Target prioritization patterns
- Ecosystem adaptation mechanisms
- Generative AI deepfakes
- LLM-powered propaganda in all 24 EU official languages
- Bot armies with 15,000+ coordinated accounts
- AI + Quantum convergence threats
- Real-time content generation capabilities
- Evolution from human to AI-powered operations
- Hybrid human-machine operations
- Fully autonomous systems
- Attribution challenges
- Operational cost structures
- Democratic institutional significance
- Economic power projection
- NATO and security architecture
- Regulatory leadership
- Normative influence
- European Commission: Multi-level governance vulnerability
- United Kingdom: Post-Brexit narrative battlegrounds
- Germany: Economic leadership targeting
- France: Strategic autonomy narratives
- Poland: Eastern flank vulnerability
- Italy: Political fragility exploitation
- Hungary: Democratic backsliding amplification
- Sweden: Nordic resilience factors
- Ukraine: Conflict narrative manipulation
- European Parliament: Electoral integrity challenges
Companies Mentioned
- OpenAI
- Anthropic
- Google DeepMind
- Meta AI
- Microsoft
- NVIDIA
- Stability AI
- Midjourney
- Huawei
- Baidu
- Tencent
- SenseTime
- Yandex
- Kaspersky
- Group-IB
- Darktrace
- CrowdStrike
- FireEye
- Recorded Future
- Graphika
