This comprehensive 412-page intelligence report provides a detailed assessment of artificial intelligence-powered disinformation threats across Africa and the Middle East through 2026. Drawing on analysis of 189 documented campaigns across 39 African countries and 15 Middle Eastern nations, the report identifies critical vulnerabilities, emerging threat vectors, and strategic implications for regional security, democratic governance, economic stability, and social cohesion.
The assessment reveals a 400-600% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, sectarian divisions, resource competition, and regional conflicts. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 89 distinct AI systems, documentation of 189 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 127 regional experts, comparative analysis of regulatory frameworks, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
The assessment reveals a 400-600% projected increase in AI disinformation campaigns by 2026, with sophisticated operations targeting electoral processes, sectarian divisions, resource competition, and regional conflicts. The report documents the emergence of state-sponsored AI disinformation infrastructure, Disinformation-as-a-Service (DaaS) providers, and increasingly autonomous synthetic content generation capabilities that fundamentally challenge information integrity across the region.
Key findings include:
- Scale & Sophistication: Documented AI disinformation campaigns have increased 350-500% since 2023, with projections of 400-600% growth by Q4 2026.
- Regional Vulnerability Patterns: Digital transformation dynamics create distinctive vulnerability patterns across the region.
- State Actor Dominance: Russia, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have emerged as primary architects of sophisticated AI disinformation infrastructure.
- Electoral Targeting: 17 upcoming elections identified as high-priority targets for interference campaigns.
- Resource Competition Focus: 42% of documented campaigns center on natural resource narratives.
- Sectarian Division Exploitation: AI-generated content increasingly targets religious and ethnic divisions with unprecedented precision.
- Detection Challenges: The gap between generation and detection capabilities is widening.
This intelligence report draws on technical analysis of 89 distinct AI systems, documentation of 189 disinformation campaigns, interviews with 127 regional experts, comparative analysis of regulatory frameworks, and predictive modeling of capability evolution and strategic implications through 2026.
Countries analyzed in the report:
- Algeria
- Angola
- Bahrain
- Benin
- Botswana
- Burkina Faso
- Burundi
- Cameroon
- Cape Verde
- Central African Republic
- Chad
- Comoros
- Congo
- Djibouti
- Egypt
- Equatorial Guinea
- Eritrea
- Ethiopia
- Gabon
- Gambia
- Ghana
- Guinea
- Guinea-Bissau
- Iran
- Iraq
- Israel
- Ivory Coast
- Jordan
- Kenya
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Lesotho
- Liberia
- Libya
- Madagascar
- Malawi
- Mali
- Mauritania
- Mauritius
- Morocco
- Mozambique
- Namibia
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Oman
- Palestine
- Qatar
- Rwanda
- Saudi Arabia
- Senegal
- Seychelles
- Sierra Leone
- Somalia
- South Africa
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Swaziland
- Syria
- Tanzania
- Togo
- Tunisia
- Uganda
- United Arab Emirates
- Yemen
- Zambia
- Zimbabwe
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Overview- Current landscape assessment
- DaaS market analysis
- Threat actor ecosystem mapping
- 2026-2030 projection framework
- Strategic implications for regional security
- Exponential growth in AI disinformation campaigns
- Market manipulation through synthetic information
- Youth radicalization via AI-powered echo chambers
- Corporate unpreparedness for synthetic threats
- AI + Quantum convergence threats
- Actor network analysis
- Capability flow patterns
- Infrastructure assessment
- Target prioritization patterns
- Ecosystem adaptation mechanisms
- Generative AI deepfakes
- LLM-powered propaganda in 40+ African languages
- Bot armies with 10,000+ coordinated accounts
- AI + Quantum convergence threats
- Real-time content generation capabilities
- Evolution from human to AI-powered operations
- Hybrid human-machine operations
- Fully autonomous systems
- Attribution challenges
- Operational cost structures
- Fragile democratic institutions
- Energy market significance
- Sectarian and ethnic division opportunities
- Youth population vulnerability
- Limited detection infrastructure
- Egypt: Information control during economic transition
- Nigeria: Electoral integrity under AI disinformation pressure
- Saudi Arabia: Strategic narrative management in Vision 2030 context
- Kenya: Youth mobilization and digital tribalism
- South Africa: Economic narrative manipulation
- Ethiopia: Conflict amplification dynamics
- UAE: Financial market targeting
- Morocco: Territorial dispute narratives
- Tunisia: Democratic transition pressures
- Qatar: Regional influence competition
Companies Mentioned
- OpenAI
- Anthropic
- Google DeepMind
- Meta AI
- Microsoft
- NVIDIA
- Stability AI
- Midjourney
- Huawei
- Baidu
- Tencent
- SenseTime
- Yandex
- Kaspersky
- Group-IB
- Darktrace
- CrowdStrike
- FireEye
- Recorded Future
- Graphika
