Canada’s FDI outlook remains rife with economic uncertainty, being intrinsically linked to the US. According to the analyst’s FDI Database, the US constitutes approximately 45% of the 371 (announced) FDI projects in Canada’s inward FDI pipeline (from 2023 to close of Q2 2025). Prime Minister Mark Carney initially adopted a tough rhetoric, indicating a desire to renegotiate the USCMA trading agreement. Though, the current state-of-play reads that Canada has filed a WTO dispute contesting US tariff obligations, while elevated 35% tariffs on Canadian goods are expected to hit markets on August 1st 2025.
The US’s current FDI outlook is defined by a divergence in announced and opened Greenfield FDI, while Canada’s ability to attract FDI lies in substituting or appeasing (more aggressive) US relations. Overall, capital expenditure invested in opened North American projects increased by 26% in 2024 (YoY), albeit is expected to decline by 27% in 2025 (at present rate). Conversely, total announced inward FDI projects to the US is spiking.
Spearheaded by the Trump-Vance administration, “Liberation Day” (02/04/25) marked an aggressive change in US foreign policy to maximize rent on goods imported to the US, while leveraging access to the US’s market as a bargaining tool. While the purported rationale for ongoing tariff threats is to correct import imbalances, elevated inward Greenfield FDI to the US remains a Republican priority. Preliminary figures from the analyst’s FDI team suggests that this strategy is somewhat working: In Q2 2025, the US recorded 248 (announced) inward Greenfield FDI projects; an 8.3% increase (YoY). Elsewhere, global counterparts and trade flows are maneuvering to renegotiate bilateral deals, substitute US demand, and diversify their international market presence as geopolitical and economic risk perpetuate.
However, dramatically elevating international trade barriers, coupled with mass deportations-exacerbating labor skill voids- inevitably comes with consequences. Between April 2nd and 4th, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of approximately 10%, erasing an estimated $5 trillion in market value. This significant downturn had a global impact, contributing to a stagnation in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) developments worldwide. Accordingly, (opened) inward Greenfield FDI projects in the US declined by 11.4% in H1 2025 (YoY).
As the macroeconomic environment in the United States improves, announced FDI projects still face increased impetus to re-justify their return on investment internally, with many investors now finding themselves highly susceptible to changes in tax/subsidy programs, negatively impacting investor sentiment and lowering project viability. For instance, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”- signed into law July 4th, 2025-dramatically eliminates major IRA clean energy incentives, knee-capping projects-dependent on IRA-backed clean energy credits.
Moreover, in a similar vein, Canada’s FDI outlook remains rife with economic uncertainty, being intrinsically linked to the US. According to the analyst’s FDI Database, the US constitutes approximately 45% of the 371 (announced) FDI projects in Canada’s inward FDI pipeline (from 2023 to close of Q2 2025). Prime Minister Mark Carney initially adopted a tough rhetoric, indicating a desire to renegotiate the USCMA trading agreement. Though, the current state-of-play reads that Canada has filed a WTO dispute contesting US tariff obligations, while elevated 35% tariffs on Canadian goods are expected to hit markets on August 1st 2025.
The US’s current FDI outlook is defined by a divergence in announced and opened Greenfield FDI, while Canada’s ability to attract FDI lies in substituting or appeasing (more aggressive) US relations. Overall, capital expenditure invested in opened North American projects increased by 26% in 2024 (YoY), albeit is expected to decline by 27% in 2025 (at present rate). Conversely, total announced inward FDI projects to the US is spiking.
Spearheaded by the Trump-Vance administration, “Liberation Day” (02/04/25) marked an aggressive change in US foreign policy to maximize rent on goods imported to the US, while leveraging access to the US’s market as a bargaining tool. While the purported rationale for ongoing tariff threats is to correct import imbalances, elevated inward Greenfield FDI to the US remains a Republican priority. Preliminary figures from the analyst’s FDI team suggests that this strategy is somewhat working: In Q2 2025, the US recorded 248 (announced) inward Greenfield FDI projects; an 8.3% increase (YoY). Elsewhere, global counterparts and trade flows are maneuvering to renegotiate bilateral deals, substitute US demand, and diversify their international market presence as geopolitical and economic risk perpetuate.
However, dramatically elevating international trade barriers, coupled with mass deportations-exacerbating labor skill voids- inevitably comes with consequences. Between April 2nd and 4th, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of approximately 10%, erasing an estimated $5 trillion in market value. This significant downturn had a global impact, contributing to a stagnation in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) developments worldwide. Accordingly, (opened) inward Greenfield FDI projects in the US declined by 11.4% in H1 2025 (YoY).
As the macroeconomic environment in the United States improves, announced FDI projects still face increased impetus to re-justify their return on investment internally, with many investors now finding themselves highly susceptible to changes in tax/subsidy programs, negatively impacting investor sentiment and lowering project viability. For instance, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”- signed into law July 4th, 2025-dramatically eliminates major IRA clean energy incentives, knee-capping projects-dependent on IRA-backed clean energy credits.
Moreover, in a similar vein, Canada’s FDI outlook remains rife with economic uncertainty, being intrinsically linked to the US. According to the analyst’s FDI Database, the US constitutes approximately 45% of the 371 (announced) FDI projects in Canada’s inward FDI pipeline (from 2023 to close of Q2 2025). Prime Minister Mark Carney initially adopted a tough rhetoric, indicating a desire to renegotiate the USCMA trading agreement. Though, the current state-of-play reads that Canada has filed a WTO dispute contesting US tariff obligations, while elevated 35% tariffs on Canadian goods are expected to hit markets on August 1st 2025.
Scope
- This reports provides an overview of FDI trends in North America. The report will also help in unpacking the realities of North America’s FDI Activity.
Reasons to Buy
- This report will help you to understand the trends of FDI in North America.
- The report will also help in unpacking the realities of North America’s FDI Activity.
- Understand the sentiments of investors behind investing in North America.
- Identify the top sectors and top inward FDI hotspots.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- The Global FDINarrative
- Top Global FDI Hotspots in Q2 2025: Developed vs Developing Markets
- The North American FDI Narrative
- Sectoral Disparities: Unpacking the Realities of North America’s FDI Activity
- Top Investors
- Annex
- Methodology
- Contact the Publisher
