Manufacture of Flour and Grain Mill Products in South Africa 2025

Introduction

• South Africa remains a significant exporter of maize products.
• It continues to rely strongly on wheat imports, as local production is only sufficient to meet just over half of local demand.
• Exports of milled grain products declined in the first half of 2025, while imports grew.
• Grain prices, mainly maize, have declined in recent months.
• An oversupply of maize products and increased competition have put pressure on maize milling profitability and made the industry ripe for consolidation.
• Challenges include climate change, and logistics and infrastructure shortfalls.

Opportunities

Construction of grain storage and warehouses. Exporting maize meal products to drought- affected African countries. New export markets for milled products. The small milling industry encourages new skills development and can help communities to become self-sufficient. Updating equipment to improve efficiencies and productivity.

Trends

Cereal products inflation slowed in 2025. Grain storage capacity continues to increase. Maize prices declined in 2025 supported by a large crop, while wheat prices have generally trended sideways. More millers are milling close to farmers, helping them save on transport costs. Smaller millers have gained market share, particularly in maize milling. Smart milling is helping millers become more competitive. Some large milling companies are getting out of the oversupplied maize milling segment. Some wheat and maize millers are diversifying. Trade in milled products has risen sharply in the last five years. Wheat sales remain strong, while maize sales have been slow to reach previous levels following a decline in maize prices at the beginning of 2025.

Challenges

Climate change. Congestion at ports. Food security concerns end up costing producers more, through mechanisms as the wheat tariff which raises imported wheat prices. Government’s land reform policy. Infestation of pests especially on maize crops. Low economic growth limits the growth of wheat products, and favours maize products, which are cheaper. Market dominance by major producers. Poor road and rail infrastructure. Rising input costs, particularly electricity. Shortage of experienced millers. The country is reliant on imports of some grains, especially wheat, and the industry is therefore affected by the volatility of the rand. Wheat millers must balance inconsistent domestic wheat quality with imports.

Outlook

• While maize prices have trended down in 2025, there is ongoing concern about oversupply of milled products due to slow growth in consumption.
• Competition among maize millers appears to have increased, and industry consolidation is expected, as up to 40% of maize milling capacity is standing idle.
• The oversupply has led Tiger Brands to announce the sale of its maize mill.
• Millers with efficient manufacturing processes will remain sustainable.
• Low economic growth continues to limit the growth of wheat milling products, as consumption of maize meal has outpaced more expensive wheat products over the last decade.