South African International Trade Trends 2025

This report focuses on the manufacture of flour and grain mill products, including the milling of maize and wheat. It provides information on production and consumption, prices and inflation, consumption trends, food security, input costs, competition and regulation. The report includes information on new investments, notable players and corporate actions, as well as profiles of 21 companies. These include notable players such as Premier, Tiger Brands, Pride Milling, RCL Foods, VKB, Blinkwater Meule, Senwes, Pioneer, Indlovu and Ingrain.

Introduction

South Africa, a small and highly open economy, relies heavily on trade, which accounted for nearly 60% of GDP in 2024. Long-term data show robust growth in imports and exports since 1994, although growth has slowed significantly since 2015 due to structural constraints, global disruptions, and declining competitiveness. High commodity prices - driven by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East instability, and renewed US protectionism under Trump’s second term - boosted South Africa’s trade surplus, but also underscored the risks of an undiversified, commodity-dependent export base.

Regionally, Asia has become South Africa’s dominant trading partner, overtaking Europe as the leading source of imports and the top export destination. Africa has simultaneously become increasingly important, now accounting for nearly a third of South Africa’s exports and providing the country’s most favourable trade balance due to demand for manufactured goods. However, trade with the rest of Africa remains highly concentrated in SADC, leaving substantial untapped opportunities for expansion under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

At the product level, South Africa’s imports are dominated by refined petroleum, vehicles, machinery, and electronics, while exports remain heavily concentrated in minerals - particularly PGMs, gold, coal, and iron ore. Although vehicles and machinery are key high-value exports, logistics failures at Transnet and limited industrial development dampen potential growth, resulting in lost market share in several expanding global sectors.

China is now the country’s largest partner in both imports and exports, but this creates vulnerability to Chinese economic slowdowns. With the US, the expiration of the AGOA and the introduction of President Donald Trump’s new “Liberation Day tariffs”, have significantly reduced exports of vehicles, steel, machinery, and yachts, even though rising prices for precious metals have boosted South Africa’s overall surplus with the US.

Outlook

The report concludes that South Africa needs to diversify export markets, expand value-added manufacturing, and enhance logistics to reduce global risks and achieve sustained trade-driven growth.