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Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking Market Opportunity, Growth Drivers, Industry Trend Analysis, and Forecast 2025-2034

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    Report

  • 225 Pages
  • December 2025
  • Region: Global
  • Global Market Insights
  • ID: 6214706
UP TO OFF until Jan 01st 2026
The Global Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking Market was valued at USD 2.7 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 32% to reach USD 42.6 billion by 2034.

With Level 4 capabilities progressing into commercial use, adoption is accelerating across major freight networks. Advancements in artificial intelligence, rising cargo movement, and persistent driver shortages are pushing autonomous trucking toward large-scale deployment. From 2024 through 2034, the overall market size is projected to increase by nearly 20 to 25 times, supported by operational savings that can reach as much as 40% due to continuous autonomous operation. Supportive regulatory guidance in the United States is also encouraging market movement, as federal transportation authorities provide clearer pathways for the safe rollout of automated freight operations. Several states remain central to development efforts, reinforcing the shift toward long-distance autonomous transport and enabling logistics companies to rely more heavily on automated systems for extended routes. Core operating models increasingly revolve around connecting major freight hubs to improve efficiency, reduce downtime, and streamline long-haul scheduling. These combined forces indicate that autonomous trucking is moving rapidly toward broader integration across national supply chains.

The diesel powertrain segment held a 69% share in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 32.2% CAGR from 2025 to 2034. Diesel continues to lead because it offers an established infrastructure, high energy density, and lower initial costs relative to emerging alternatives. Autonomous systems integrated with diesel platforms can deliver improved productivity without requiring fleets to transition to unfamiliar propulsion technologies. Although diesel remains the preferred option for long-distance hauling, tightening emissions mandates in regions such as California and parts of Europe introduce regulatory pressures that the industry must navigate.

The Class 7 truck segment held an 86% share in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.6% between 2025 and 2034. This weight class covers heavy-duty vehicles widely used for freight movement, urban logistics, and industrial collection services. Class 7 models maintain a leading position within autonomous applications because their operational patterns align with structured, hub-oriented routes. This segment benefits from practical load capacity and more flexible compliance requirements. Growth is reinforced by expanding autonomous transport networks, broader integration of self-driving systems, and deeper collaboration with original equipment manufacturers.

United States Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking Market is projected to see sustained expansion from 2025 to 2034. The country remains the largest contributor to global demand due to strong freight volumes, advanced highway-automation initiatives, and ongoing innovations introduced by companies such as Aurora Innovation and Kodiak Robotics. Carriers and logistics providers across the nation are investing in automated freight technologies to raise reliability, cut operating expenses, and improve movement between key hubs. Tools driven by artificial intelligence, including fleet analytics, remote support functions, and predictive servicing, are becoming essential to the ecosystem.

Leading companies in the Global Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking Market include Aurora Innovation, Einride, Inceptio Technology, Kodiak Robotics, Locomation, Plus.ai, Tesla, Torc Robotics, TuSimple, and Waymo. Companies in the Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking Market are reinforcing their positions by expanding testing programs, advancing Level 4 software, and increasing investment in purpose-built platforms. Many firms are partnering with freight carriers, fleet operators, and truck manufacturers to accelerate integration and secure long-term commercial pathways. To strengthen competitiveness, businesses are improving sensor technology, refining AI-driven perception, and enhancing safety-critical redundancies. Several organizations are also building scalable operational centers to manage autonomous fleets and support remote oversight. Cost efficiency, reliability, and regulatory compliance remain top priorities, driving continuous improvements in system performance.

Comprehensive Market Analysis and Forecast

  • Industry trends, key growth drivers, challenges, future opportunities, and regulatory landscape
  • Competitive landscape with Porter’s Five Forces and PESTEL analysis
  • Market size, segmentation, and regional forecasts
  • In-depth company profiles, business strategies, financial insights, and SWOT analysis

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology
1.1 Market scope and definition
1.2 Research design
1.2.1 Research approach
1.2.2 Data collection methods
1.3 Data mining sources
1.3.1 Global
1.3.2 Regional/Country
1.4 Base estimates and calculations
1.4.1 Base year calculation
1.4.2 Key trends for market estimation
1.5 Primary research and validation
1.5.1 Primary sources
1.6 Forecast model
1.7 Research assumptions and limitations
Chapter 2 Executive Summary
2.1 Industry 360-degree synopsis, 2021-2034
2.2 Key market trends
2.2.1 Regional
2.2.2 Propulsion
2.2.3 Class
2.2.4 Autonomy Level
2.2.5 Application
2.2.6 End Use
2.3 TAM Analysis, 2025-2034
2.4 CXO perspectives: Strategic imperatives
2.4.1 Executive decision points
2.4.2 Critical success factors
2.5 Future outlook and strategic recommendations
Chapter 3 Industry Insights
3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
3.1.1 Supplier landscape
3.1.2 Profit margin analysis
3.1.3 Cost structure
3.1.4 Value addition at each stage
3.1.5 Factor affecting the value chain
3.1.6 Disruptions
3.2 Industry impact forces
3.2.1 Growth drivers
3.2.1.1 Severe truck driver shortage
3.2.1.2 Need for lower transportation costs
3.2.1.3 24/7 continuous operations
3.2.1.4 Advancements in AI, sensors, and highway automation
3.2.1.5 Expansion of controlled hub-to-hub freight networks
3.2.2 Industry pitfalls and challenges
3.2.2.1 High capital and technology costs
3.2.2.2 Regulatory uncertainty across regions
3.2.3 Market opportunities
3.2.3.1 Autonomous freight services for major retailers and 3PLs
3.2.3.2 Integration with electric and hydrogen long-haul trucks
3.2.3.3 Remote operations centers (ROC) and tele-driving services
3.2.3.4 High-growth markets in Asia-Pacific
3.3 Growth potential analysis
3.4 Regulatory landscape
3.4.1 United States federal framework (NHTSA, FMCSA, DOT)
3.4.2 US state-level legislation & permitting (34 states + DC)
3.4.3 UNECE WP.29 & GRVA international harmonization
3.4.4 UN regulations (R155 cybersecurity, R156 OTA, R157 ALKS)
3.4.5 Hours-of-service (HOS) implications for Level 4-5 systems
3.4.6 Inspection standards & CVSA enhanced CMV inspection program
3.4.7 Data recording, privacy & ISMR reporting requirements
3.5 Porter’s analysis
3.6 PESTEL analysis
3.7 Technology and innovation landscape
3.7.1 Current technological trends
3.7.1.1 SAE levels 3-5 automation capabilities
3.7.1.2 Sensor fusion architectures (LiDAR, radar, camera)
3.7.1.3 AI & machine learning in perception & planning
3.7.1.4 Redundancy & fail-safe system design
3.7.2 Emerging technologies
3.7.2.1 V2X communication & connected vehicle technologies
3.7.2.2 HD mapping & localization
3.7.2.3 Cybersecurity & OTA software update management
3.8 Pricing analysis
3.8.1 Technology cost structure
3.8.2 Vehicle acquisition cost premium
3.8.3 Operating cost economics
3.8.4 TaaS pricing models & rate structures
3.8.5 Cost reduction roadmap (2024-2034)
3.9 Production statistics
3.9.1 Production hubs
3.9.2 Consumption hubs
3.9.3 Export and import
3.10 Cost breakdown analysis
3.10.1 Total cost of ownership (TCO) & economic payback analysis
3.10.2 TCO framework for autonomous trucks vs conventional trucks
3.10.3 Capital expenditure analysis
3.10.4 Operating expenditure analysis
3.10.5 Revenue & utilization impacts
3.10.6 Payback period analysis by deployment model
3.11 Patent analysis
3.11.1 Patent filing trends by technology domain (2015-2024)
3.11.2 Leading patent assignees (OEMs, ADS developers, suppliers)
3.11.3 Key patent clusters: perception, planning, control, redundancy
3.11.4 Geographic patent activity (USPTO, EPO, CNIPA)
3.12 Sustainability and environmental aspects
3.12.1 Sustainable practices
3.12.2 Waste reduction strategies
3.12.3 Energy efficiency in production
3.12.4 Eco-friendly Initiatives
3.12.5 Carbon footprint considerations
3.13 Operational deployment models
3.13.1 Hub-to-hub operations & transfer hub economics
3.13.2 Dedicated corridor strategies
3.13.3 Industrial & controlled environment applications
3.13.4 Hybrid human-autonomous fleet management
3.14 Safety & performance benchmarking
3.14.1 Safety case frameworks & validation methods
3.14.2 Real-world driverless miles achieved (2023-2025)
3.14.3 Disengagement & critical event reporting
3.14.4 Comparison to human driver baseline performance
3.15 Insurance & liability framework evolution
3.15.1 Current liability attribution challenges
3.15.2 Traditional commercial auto insurance vs autonomous-specific products
3.15.3 Industry pilot programs & insurer partnerships
3.15.4 Regulatory gaps in liability frameworks
3.16 Real-world performance data & disengagement analytics
3.16.1 Driverless miles accumulated by key players
3.16.2 Disengagement rate definitions & measurement standards
3.16.3 Critical event taxonomy
3.16.4 Weather & environmental performance
3.16.5 Comparative analysis: autonomous vs human driver incident rates
Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Company market share analysis
4.2.1 North America
4.2.2 Europe
4.2.3 Asia-Pacific
4.2.4 LATAM
4.2.5 MEA
4.3 Competitive analysis of major market players
4.4 Competitive positioning matrix
4.5 Strategic outlook matrix
4.6 Key developments
4.6.1 Mergers & acquisitions
4.6.2 Partnerships & collaborations
4.6.3 New Product Launches
4.6.4 Expansion Plans and funding
Chapter 5 Market Estimates & Forecast, by Propulsion, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
5.1 Key trends
5.2 Diesel
5.3 Electric
5.4 Hybrid
Chapter 6 Market Estimates & Forecast, by Class, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
6.1 Key trends
6.2 Class 7 (26,001-33,000 lbs)
6.3 Class 8 (33,001+ lbs)
Chapter 7 Market Estimates & Forecast, by Autonomy Level, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
7.1 Key trends
7.2 Level 3
7.3 Level 4
7.4 Level 5
Chapter 8 Market Estimates & Forecast, by Application, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
8.1 Key trends
8.2 Long-distance freight transport
8.3 Highway platooning
8.4 Cross-border logistics
8.5 Hub-to-hub operations
8.6 Port and terminal logistics
8.7 Others
Chapter 9 Market Estimates & Forecast, by End Use, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
9.1 Key trends
9.2 Logistics companies
9.3 Retail & e-commerce
9.4 FMCG & food supply chains
9.5 Industrial goods suppliers
9.6 Others
Chapter 10 Market Estimates & Forecast, by Region, 2021-2034 (USD Mn, Units)
10.1 Key trends
10.2 North America
10.2.1 US
10.2.2 Canada
10.3 Europe
10.3.1 Germany
10.3.2 UK
10.3.3 France
10.3.4 Italy
10.3.5 Spain
10.3.6 Russia
10.3.7 Nordics
10.3.8 Portugal
10.3.9 Croatia
10.4 Asia-Pacific
10.4.1 China
10.4.2 India
10.4.3 Japan
10.4.4 Australia
10.4.5 South Korea
10.4.6 Singapore
10.4.7 Thailand
10.4.8 Indonesia
10.4.9 Vietnam
10.5 Latin America
10.5.1 Brazil
10.5.2 Mexico
10.5.3 Argentina
10.6 MEA
10.6.1 South Africa
10.6.2 Saudi Arabia
10.6.3 UAE
10.6.4 Turkey
Chapter 11 Company Profiles
11.1 Global Players
11.1.1 Aurora Innovation
11.1.2 Daimler Truck / Freightliner
11.1.3 Einride
11.1.4 Inceptio Technology
11.1.5 Kodiak Robotics
11.1.6 Locomation
11.1.7 Navistar
11.1.8 Paccar
11.1.9 Plus (PlusAI)
11.1.10 Tesla
11.1.11 Torc Robotics
11.1.12 TRATON
11.1.13 TuSimple
11.1.14 Volvo Autonomous Solutions
11.1.15 Waymo
11.2 Regional Players
11.2.1 Gatik
11.2.2 Voyage / Geely-backed autonomous trucking unit
11.2.3 Waabi
11.3 Emerging & Niche Players
11.3.1 Applied Intuition
11.3.2 Embark Trucks
11.3.3 Ike Robotics
11.3.4 Outrider
11.3.5 Stack AV

Companies Mentioned

The companies profiled in this Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking market report include:
  • Aurora Innovation
  • Daimler Truck / Freightliner
  • Einride
  • Inceptio Technology
  • Kodiak Robotics
  • Locomation
  • Navistar
  • Paccar
  • Plus (PlusAI)
  • Tesla
  • Torc Robotics
  • TRATON
  • TuSimple
  • Volvo Autonomous Solutions
  • Waymo
  • Gatik
  • Voyage / Geely-backed autonomous trucking unit
  • Waabi
  • Applied Intuition
  • Embark Trucks
  • Ike Robotics
  • Outrider
  • Stack AV

Table Information