Vietnam Heat Pump - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The vietnam heat pump market size was valued at USD 0.88 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 0.93 billion in 2026 to reach USD 1.22 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.58% during the forecast period (2026-2031). This report is Segmented by Source Type (Air Source, Water Source, and More), Technology (Air-To-Air, Air-To-Water, and More), Capacity (Below 10 KW, 10-50 KW, and More), Application (Space Heating, Space Cooling, and More), End User (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial), Installation (New Installation, and Retrofit), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Vietnam Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights

Accelerated Roll-out of Government Subsidies and Zero-Interest Green Loans

Cheaper capital is beginning to reshape buying behavior, especially among small hotel chains and condominium associations that historically delayed high-efficiency upgrades. As commercial lenders embed the 2% interest subsidy in their green-loan products, monthly installments for a mid-rise hot-water plant fall below the cash savings from lower electricity use, creating immediate positive cash flow for borrowers. Installation contractors report that order backlogs for R32 air-to-water units in Ho Chi Minh City doubled between January and March 2026, a shift they attribute to buyers racing to lock in concessional terms before any quota caps are reached. Manufacturers are responding by offering “loan-ready” packages that bundle equipment, monitoring software, and pre-filled application documents, reducing transaction friction for end users who lack experience with green-finance paperwork. Over the next two years, this policy-driven liquidity is expected to narrow the payback gap between heat pumps and gas heaters to less than three years for many commercial sites, firmly anchoring demand in the short term.

Mandatory Phase-Out of Inefficient Electric Water Heaters in Urban Areas

Compliance deadlines embedded in QCVN 25:2025 are forcing property managers to audit appliance fleets and draft multi-year replacement schedules. Because municipal inspectors now review energy-certificate logs during routine safety checks, owners of older resistance heaters are exposed to fines as well as higher electricity bills, accelerating their decision to switch technologies. Retail chains in Hanoi have already removed low-efficiency storage heaters from shelves, replacing them with inverter-driven heat-pump models that meet the 2025 minimum-performance threshold. Insurance firms are also signaling that non-compliant equipment could void fire-risk coverage, adding a financial stick to the regulatory carrot. As enforcement radiates from tier-1 to tier-2 cities, a rolling wave of demand is expected to cascade through the distribution channel, sustaining double-digit shipment growth through 2029.

Rising Demand for Low-Carbon Aquaculture Heating Systems

Export-oriented shrimp and pangasius farms are under pressure to document Scope 1 reductions to retain buyer contracts in Europe and North America, where carbon-adjustment fees loom. Early pilots show that water-source heat pumps can lift larval survival rates by 6-8 percentage points while trimming diesel usage, an operational win that resonates with farm managers. Climate-linked insurance policies now offer premium discounts for electrified hatcheries, further sweetening the value proposition. Provincial authorities, keen to safeguard a USD 10 billion seafood export sector, are co-financing demonstration plants to showcase cost savings to smaller operators. As carbon-credit spot prices rise ahead of the 2028 market launch, farms that bank verified reductions via heat-pump projects will gain a tradable revenue stream that enhances project economics.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rapid Residential High-Rise Construction Boom in Tier-1 Cities
• High Upfront Equipment and Installation Cost
• Shortage of Certified Heat-Pump Technicians

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Air-source systems accounted for 68.78% of the Vietnam heat pump market share in 2025, underpinned by favorable ambient temperatures, widespread dealer networks, and lower installation complexity. Hybrid designs pairing heat pumps with gas or biomass boilers are set for a 7.13% CAGR as commercial and industrial users hedge against peak-hour electricity prices and grid instability. The Vietnam heat pump market size for water-source solutions remains modest, yet pilots in coastal resorts and aquaculture hint at long-term niche expansion. Ground-source uptake is inhibited by urban land scarcity and drilling costs, restricting deployments to data-center campuses and greenfield industrial parks where vertical boreholes can be planned from the outset.

Developers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City increasingly pre-install R32-charged air-source units that meet 2029 refrigerant rules, cutting retrofit headaches for residents. Meanwhile, manufacturers fine-tune outdoor coils and inverter drives for humid, 35-40 °C summer conditions, sustaining seasonal performance factors above 4.5 even at partial load. These advances reinforce air-source hegemony, yet rising industrial electrification and refrigerant phase-outs are opening beachheads for ground- and water-source configurations in specialized applications.

Air-to-water equipment captured 60.31% of the Vietnam heat pump market size in 2025 as hotels, hospitals, and condominiums prioritized domestic hot water and radiant floor loops. The Vietnam heat pump market share for ground-to-water units will rise as data centers pursue waste-heat recovery and Mekong Delta hatcheries deploy geothermal loops to stabilize water temperatures during extreme weather events. Air-to-air split units dominate southern provinces for cooling but seldom run in heating mode, curbing their incremental contribution. Water-to-water machines serve district cooling schemes in urban redevelopment zones, where central chilled-water plants integrate heat-recovery chillers to deliver process or sanitary hot water without extra electrical input.

Developers of data-center campuses in Binh Duong are piloting dual-temperature hydronic loops that let ground-to-water heat pumps scavenge 30 °C server exhaust and elevate it to 60 °C process water without auxiliary boosters. Aquaculture operators, meanwhile, favor sealed-loop pond coils linked to modular water-to-water units, citing corrosion resistance and stable COPs during monsoon season. Equipment makers are responding with factory-prefabricated skid modules that compress design timelines from months to weeks, an advantage for fast-track projects racing to meet export certification audits. As monitoring platforms aggregate field data, financiers gain confidence in long-term performance, unlocking cheaper debt that narrows the cost differential with mainstream air-to-water systems.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Source Type
  • Air Source
  • Water Source
  • Ground Source
  • Hybrid
• By Technology
  • Air-to-Air
  • Air-to-Water
  • Water-to-Water
  • Ground-to-Water
• By Capacity
  • Below 10 kW
  • 10-50 kW
  • 50-200 kW
  • Above 200 kW
• By Application
  • Space Heating
  • Space Cooling
  • Domestic and Sanitary Hot Water
  • Industrial and Process Heating
  • Other Applications
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
• By Installation
  • New Installation
  • Retrofit

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Daikin Industries Ltd.
• Panasonic Holdings Corp.
• Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
• Midea Group Co. Ltd.
• Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai
• Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
• Vaillant Group
• Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
• Glen Dimplex Group
• WaterFurnace International Inc.
• PHNIX Eco-Energy Solution Ltd.
• Thermia Heat Pumps AB
• Sanden Holdings Corp. (Heat Pump Div.)
• Enertech Global LLC
• Ecoforest Geotermia S.L.
• MasterTherm CZ s.r.o.
• Mayekawa Mfg. Co. Ltd. (Heat Pump Div.)
• Clade Engineering Systems Ltd.
• Calorex Heat Pumps Ltd.
• Aermec S.p.A
• Alpha Innotec GmbH
• Heliotherm Wärmepumpentechnik GmbH
• Ochsner Wärmepumpen GmbH
• Clivet SpA
• Hitachi Air Conditioning

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support