Norway Heat Pump - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The norway heat pump market size is expected to increase from USD 226.78 million in 2025 to USD 230.67 million in 2026 and reach USD 248.91 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 1.53% over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Source Type (Air Source, Water Source, and More), Technology (Air-To-Air, Air-To-Water, and More), Capacity (Below 10 KW, 10-50 KW, and More), Application (Space Heating, Space Cooling, and More), End User (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial), Installation (New Installation, and Retrofit), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Norway Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights

Surge In Hour-Ahead Spot Prices Enhancing Heat-Pump Payback

Nord Pool day-ahead electricity prices spiked above NOK 1.50 (USD 0.14) per kWh during the 2024-2025 winter. By contrast, heat pumps with coefficients of performance between 3.0 and 5.0 deliver heat at NOK 0.30-0.50 (USD 0.03-0.05) per kWh, undercutting direct electric resistance by 60-70%. Capacity-based distribution tariffs introduced in 2025 further reward households that shift compressor operation to off-peak hours, trimming monthly grid charges of NOK 400-600 (USD 38-56). Smart thermostats linked to the NorFlex demand-response platform automate load shifting, compressing simple payback for an air-source retrofit in Southern Norway to under four years.

Decarbonization Targets Embedded In Norway's 2027 Climate Action Plan

The 55% greenhouse-gas reduction goal versus 1990 levels has reframed heat pumps as compliance instruments for municipal building portfolios. A carbon tax that reached NOK 2,000 (USD 188) per tonne in 2026 levies an extra NOK 5-6 per liter on heating oil, shrinking payback periods for air-source systems in coastal zones. District-heating operators must lift renewable input to 60% by 2028, catalyzing pilots that reclaim low-grade heat from sewage, data centers, and cooling loops through 1-3 MW heat pumps delivering 40-60 °C supply temperatures. Procurement tenders increasingly cite ISO 14001 credentials, edging the market toward vendors that verify embedded carbon savings.

Upfront Costs Still above NOK 160,000 for Deep Retrofit Cases

Ground-source retrofits in uninsulated pre-1980 homes regularly surpass NOK 200,000 (USD 18,800) owing to borehole drilling and radiator swaps, while Enova’s NOK 40,000 (USD 3,750) grant covers only one-fifth of that outlay. The financing gap deters households earning below NOK 600,000 (USD 56,400), a group disproportionately concentrated in rural municipalities where heating loads are highest. Rising policy rates of 4.5% in 2025 curbed home-equity borrowing, leaving energy-poor consumers locked into direct resistance heating despite escalating electricity tariffs.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Mandatory Ban on New Oil-Fired Boilers Effective 1 Jan 2027
• Grid-Operator Rebates for Demand-Response Ready Units
• Limited Three-Phase Supply In Rural Municipalities

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Hybrid systems integrating heat pumps with fossil or biomass backups are forecast to expand at a 2.47% CAGR, the fastest rate among source types, as rural grid constraints favor flexible peak-load coverage. Air-source units secured 49.03% of revenue in 2025 on the strength of average installed costs near NOK 155,000 (USD 14,570) and straightforward permitting, sustaining the Norway heat pump market leadership despite efficiency losses below -10 °C. Ground-source packages, although dearer at NOK 200,000-250,000 (USD 18,800-23,500), deliver seasonal COP values of 3.5-5.0 and pair well with new-build basements where drilling can coincide with foundation work.

Hybrid system deployment is most pronounced in commercial grain-drying, aquaculture, and food-processing plants that balance a 100-300 kW heat pump against a biomass or gas boiler. Case in point, Felleskjøpet’s Trondheim grain terminal installed a 1.5 MW Aneo unit in 2024 that cuts gas use by 70%, while the boiler provides redundancy during arctic cold snaps. Such configurations position hybrids to capture incremental Norway heat pump market share in industrial conversions through 2031.

Ground-to-water configurations are projected to grow at a 2.02% CAGR, buoyed by stabilized drilling fees and promising seasonal storage pilots that charge bedrock during summer. Air-to-air heat pumps retained 47.18% revenue in 2025, their ductless simplicity suiting coastal apartments with modest loads, yet performance fades inland where design temperatures reach -25 °C. Air-to-water units remain the retrofit workhorse, feeding existing radiator circuits with 50-60 °C water, albeit at lower COP below -10 °C.

Tromsø’s 2024 UTES project achieved a seasonal COP above 4.0 by storing 120 °C waste heat underground for winter retrieval, a template now under feasibility study in Bergen and Drammen. Manufacturers respond to the evolving regulatory climate: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries unveiled R290 systems in December 2025, aligning with F-gas phase-out rules, while Midea’s dual-compressor Raynor series holds rated output down to -25 °C, targeting inland homeowners. These advances reinforce the Norway heat pump market position of ground-coupled and propane-charged technologies as F-gas restrictions tighten.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Source Type
  • Air Source
  • Water Source
  • Ground Source
  • Hybrid
• By Technology
  • Air-to-Air
  • Air-to-Water
  • Water-to-Water
  • Ground-to-Water
• By Capacity
  • Below 10 kW
  • 10-50 kW
  • 50-200 kW
  • Above 200 kW
• By Application
  • Space Heating
  • Space Cooling
  • Domestic and Sanitary Hot Water
  • Industrial and Process Heating
  • Other Applications
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
• By Installation
  • New Installation
  • Retrofit

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Trane Inc. (Trane Technologies)
• Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
• Midea Group
• Carrier Corporation
• Fujitsu Limited
• Bosch Thermotechnology (Robert Bosch GmbH)
• LG Electronics, Inc.
• Panasonic Corporation
• Lennox International Inc.
• Johnson Controls Inc.
• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
• Daikin Industries Ltd
• Danfoss A/S
• Glen Dimplex Group
• Gree Electric Appliances Inc.
• WOLF GmbH (Ariston Group)
• NIBE Industrier AB (NIBE Group)
• Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
• Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
• Toshiba Corporation (Toshiba Carrier)

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support