Greece Heat Pump - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The greece heat pump market size is expected to grow from USD 121.84 million in 2025 to USD 128.59 million in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 164.62 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.06% over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Source Type (Air Source, Water Source, and More), Technology (Air-To-Air, Air-To-Water, and More), Capacity (Below 10 KW, 10-50 KW, and More), Application (Space Heating, Industrial and Process Heating, and More), End User (Residential, Commercial, and More), Installation (New Installation, and Retrofit), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Greece Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights

Supportive Government Incentives Under "Exoikonomo" Scheme

The expanded EUR 1.6 billion (USD 1.81 billion) Exoikonomo program reimburses up to 85% of project costs for energy-poor households, removing upfront barriers to deep retrofits. A parallel replacement scheme covers 50-60% of typical change-outs, broadening access for middle-income families. Together, the two tracks underpin the target of 856,600 residential installations by 2030, equal to roughly 56,000 units per year. The subsidy cadence ensures installers enjoy forward visibility, which encourages inventory planning and workforce expansion. Temporary adoption dips observed after the 2024 net-billing switch highlight the market’s sensitivity to perceived payback shifts, reinforcing the importance of stable policy frameworks.

EU Fit-for-55 Decarbonization Targets

Greece’s 2024 climate law hard-codes a 65% renewable share in total energy and 42.5% in heating and cooling by 2030. These milestones pull forward electrified heating adoption across homes, offices, and light industry. Parallel F-Gas revisions cap refrigerant GWP below 150 from 2027 for most small units, accelerating the rollout of R290 and R454C platforms from Daikin, Panasonic, and Viessmann. Early-mover brands gain pricing power, while installers face retraining costs to handle flammable A3 refrigerants. Access to EU Innovation and Cohesion Funds further derisks large-scale district and industrial projects.

Shortage of Certified Installers with F-Gas License

Only 10,600 licensed technicians serve the entire country, far below the volume needed to hit 2030 NECP targets. Training capacity is improving through manufacturer academies, yet travel time and wage premiums inflate project budgets in remote regions. The upcoming switch to R290 heightens safety requirements, extending course length and cost. Firms that build in-house crews and apprenticeship pipelines gain an execution advantage and can command premium service contracts.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Impending Ban on New Oil-Fired Boilers in Greek Islands by 2027
• Rapid Decline in Residential Electricity Tariffs Via Net-Metering
• Island-Grid Congestion Caps Extra Electric Load

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Air-source units, holding 58.86% Greece Heat Pump market share in 2025, remain the default choice thanks to modest installation costs and mild winters. Water-source and ground-source alternatives thrive in geothermal pockets and premium projects, offering higher SCOP and quieter operation. Hybrid pairings that link air-source compressors with solar thermal collectors or legacy boilers are projected to grow at a 6.03% CAGR, reflecting customer desire for resiliency against tariff spikes and peak winter demand. Installers report that bundled hybrid proposals can trim annual energy outlays by 60-70% against oil heating, offsetting higher initial spend. The segment also benefits from households prioritizing self-consumption over export under net-billing rules.

A rising pool of hotel refurbishments and public-sector retrofits further institutionalizes hybrid designs. ANDRIANOS, for example, packages Viessmann or Carrier heat pumps with solar thermal arrays sourced from local collectors, achieving deep cuts in operating expenditure for island resorts. Conversely, falling PV module prices and expanding battery subsidies challenge hybrid solar-thermal economics, requiring integrators to emphasize reliability, silent operation, and hot-water comfort to justify adoption.

Air-to-water platforms represented 48.01% of Greece Heat Pump market size in 2025, valued for seamless tie-in with existing radiator circuits and domestic hot-water tanks. Air-to-air splits dominate small apartments, yet lack hot-water capability, limiting share growth. Ground-to-water systems, forecast to advance at 5.82% CAGR, win projects in Crete and Northern Greece where soil temperatures stay stable and drilling is feasible. Closed-loop boreholes deliver up to 50% operating-cost savings over comparable air-source setups, a selling point for cultural centers and university campuses seeking predictable budgets.

Technology evolution centers on natural refrigerants. Panasonic’s Aquarea L and Daikin’s Altherma 4 H employ R290 to meet 2027 GWP caps while maintaining 75 °C water supply, opening retrofit opportunities in high-temperature radiator homes. Installer training remains the gating factor, yet hydraulic-only indoor units reduce refrigerant handling, shortening learning curves. Viessmann’s modular indoor cabinets, launched in April 2025, integrate PV, battery, and cloud monitoring in factory-preplugged kits, appealing to premium builders chasing near-zero-energy codes.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Source Type
  • Air Source
  • Water Source
  • Ground Source
  • Hybrid
• By Technology
  • Air-to-Air
  • Air-to-Water
  • Water-to-Water
  • Ground-to-Water
• By Capacity
  • Below 10 kW
  • 10-50 kW
  • 50-200 kW
  • Above 200 kW
• By Application
  • Space Heating
  • Space Cooling
  • Domestic and Sanitary Hot Water
  • Industrial and Process Heating
  • Other Applications
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
• By Installation
  • New Installation
  • Retrofit

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Daikin Industries Ltd.
• Carrier Corporation
• Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
• Trane Technologies Plc
• Panasonic Holdings Corporation
• BDR Thermea Group
• Ariston Holding N.V.
• Systemair AB
• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
• Andrianos Inc.
• Inventor AG
• STIEBEL ELTRON GmbH and Co. KG
• Schiessl Inc.
• Hitachi Air Conditioning Ltd.
• LG Electronics Inc.
• Airtechnic Inc.
• GHP Hellas Inc.
• Alkyon Inc.
• Samsung Electronics Inc.
• Thermola S.A.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support