Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The refuse-Derived fuel market size is expected to grow from USD 7.34 billion in 2025 to USD 7.72 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 10.12 billion by 2031 at 5.56% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Feedstock Source (MSW, C&I, C&D, Agricultural, Other Waste), Fuel Type (Solid, Liquid, Gaseous RDF), End User (Cement, Power Generation, CHP, Industrial Boilers, Waste-To-Energy, Lime, Steel, Paper & Pulp, Other), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) Market Trends and Insights

Landfill Diversion and Circular-Economy Mandates

Landfill diversion requirements continue to support the refuse-derived fuel market by redirecting non-recyclable material toward recovery. The EU target limits landfill disposal to 10% by 2035, and 9 Member States have reached that level. Romania and Croatia reported landfill rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, in 2021, leaving substantial material that could enter processing systems as capacity develops. The European Commission identified a Circular Economy Act as part of its circular economy policy agenda in 2026. A future restriction on landfilling combustible municipal and commercial waste would expand available feedstock where disposal remains common and require local sorting, pre-treatment, and stable contracts before new volumes can become usable fuel. The refuse-derived fuel market depends on this local capacity to turn diverted material into an acceptable fuel stream.

Cement and Industrial Fossil-Fuel Substitution

Cement manufacturing provides the most stable demand base for the refuse-derived fuel market because kiln heat is difficult to replace through direct electrification. European cement plants substituted 53% of kiln fuel with waste-derived alternatives, compared with a global average of 6%. JSW Cement co-processed 157,000 tonnes of RDF in FY2024-25 and achieved a 16.5% thermal substitution rate across 2 facilities. The company reported avoided emissions of 120,000 tonnes of CO2, which connects fuel substitution with decarbonization reporting. A 2025 review found that 20% RDF thermal substitution could reduce the global warming potential of cement production by 3.3% to 4.2%, with a higher result when avoided landfill methane was included. Indocement’s 2026 agreement with Paser Regency shows that Asian cement producers are shifting toward formal local supply arrangements instead of relying only on spot procurement.

Feedstock Quality and Moisture Variability

Feedstock inconsistency limits wider adoption in the refuse-derived fuel market because cement kilns require predictable combustion characteristics. Unprocessed mixed waste can contain more than 35% moisture, which can reduce net calorific value from a target of 18 MJ/kg to below 11 MJ/kg. European industrial emissions rules impose chlorine and moisture limits that can lead to rejection of poor-quality RDF loads. High organic content in developing Asian waste streams can raise moisture above 40% and increase the drying requirement. India’s co-processing guidelines set quality thresholds that small facilities may struggle to meet. Advanced drying and real-time monitoring add USD 8 to USD 15 per tonne to processing costs.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rising Residual Waste Volumes and Waste-to-Energy Demand
• Carbon Pricing and Embedded-Carbon Accounting
• High Logistics Cost and Limited Economical Haul Distance

Segment Analysis

Municipal solid waste accounted for 58.4% of the refuse-derived fuel market value in 2025, supported by municipal diversion requirements and established mechanical-biological treatment assets. Its supply scale reflects years of investment in collection and processing systems. However, organic contamination and seasonal moisture can restrict calorific output and chlorine control. These constraints limit the share of municipal material that can meet premium solid recovered fuel specifications. Commercial and industrial waste is forecast to grow at a 6.3% CAGR through 2031, the highest rate among feedstock sources.

Its lower moisture and more consistent composition, together with source separation under extended producer responsibility frameworks, can support a closer match with engineered fuel requirements in the refuse-derived fuel market. The SoliD-Q project began in 2026 to develop digital recycling data for precise recyclate quality. Construction and demolition waste remains a smaller opportunity in infrastructure-intensive markets, though gypsum and treated timber can restrict kiln use. Agricultural waste is being tested in South Asia and South America through co-pelletized blends. Pellet production costs range from USD 35 to USD 50 per tonne, while the cited fuel savings versus coal can reach USD 70 per tonne and quality standards can support longer-term offtake agreements.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Feedstock Source
  • Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
  • Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Waste
  • Construction & Demolition (C&D) Waste
  • Agricultural Waste
  • Other Waste Streams
• By Fuel Type
  • Solid RDF
  • Liquid RDF
  • Gaseous RDF
• By End User
  • Cement Manufacturing
  • Power Generation
  • Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
  • Industrial Boilers
  • Waste-to-Energy Plants
  • Lime Industry
  • Steel & Metal Processing
  • Paper & Pulp
  • Other Industrial Applications
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • United Kingdom
    • Poland
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Indonesia
    • Vietnam
    • Thailand
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Chile
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Egypt
    • South Africa
    • Morocco
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Europe held 46.7% in 2025, supported by landfill diversion rules, energy recovery assets, and carbon pricing in the refuse-derived fuel market. Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, and France remained central production and consumption centers. Poland, Romania, and Croatia are adding capacity through mechanical-biological treatment investment. Sweden’s imports from the United Kingdom and Norway show how installed energy-from-waste capacity can sustain cross-border fuel trade. The EU Landfill Directive and Waste Framework Directive continue to shape regional demand, while the Circular Economy Act adds policy direction in 2026.

Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at a 6.1% CAGR through 2031, making it the fastest-growing regional component of the refuse-derived fuel market. Urban waste growth, limited landfill space, and cement producers’ efforts to reduce coal use support this outlook. India’s daily municipal waste volume exceeds 150,000 tonnes, with less than 25% converted to RDF fuel. China’s industrial growth increases demand for consistent alternative fuels, while Japan’s waste-separation infrastructure supports higher use of solid recovered fuel. Indonesia’s 2026 Indocement and Paser Regency agreement provides an example of government-supported kiln co-processing.

North America has a moderate position because landfill disposal remains relatively affordable across many U.S. states and Canadian provinces. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finalized updated large municipal waste combustor standards in March 2026, covering more than 150 units at 57 facilities. South America remains at an early stage, with RDF use below 5% of residual waste volumes in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Logistics and limited cement co-processing capacity constrain development there. Middle East and African activity is most visible in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Morocco, while high-moisture waste can delay larger RDF projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. These conditions keep project economics uneven across the refuse-derived fuel market.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• A2A S.p.A.
• Andusia Recovered Fuels Limited
• Averda International Limited
• Biffa Limited
• Blue Phoenix Group B.V.
• Enva Group Limited
• FCC Servicios Medio Ambiente Holding, S.A.U.
• Geminor AS
• Indaver NV
• PAPREC Group
• PreZero International GmbH
• Ragn-Sells AB
• REMONDIS SE & Co. KG
• Renewi plc
• SARIA SE & Co. KG
• SUEZ S.A.
• Veolia Environnement S.A.
• Waste Management, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support