Olive Oil - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The olive oil market size was valued at USD 25.14 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 26.32 billion in 2026 to reach USD 35.84 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 6.42% during the forecast period (2026-2031). This report is Segmented by Product Type (Refined Oil, Virgin Oil, and Extra Virgin Oil), Nature (Organic and Conventional), End Use (Retail, Foodservice, and Industrial), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume.

Global Olive Oil Market Trends and Insights

Growing Adoption of Heart-Healthy Oils

Health evidence gives consumers a clear reason to select extra virgin products. A 2025 American Heart Journal analysis of 7,102 participants in the PREDIMED cohort associated daily extra virgin olive oil intake above 40 g with a lower risk of composite cardiovascular outcomes. The reported outcomes included stroke, peripheral artery disease, and atrial fibrillation. This evidence supports product communication that focuses on dietary patterns rather than on taste alone. A 2025 study also found improvements in systolic and mean blood pressure among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who received an extra virgin olive oil intervention. A separate 2025 clinical trial found that high-phenolic extra virgin olive oil containing 1,021 mg/kg of phenolics reduced lipoprotein(a) more effectively than a standard-phenolic formulation at equal total polyphenol intake. These results give producers a basis for premium products that disclose and substantiate phenolic content.

Greater Consumer Shift Toward Natural Olive Oil from Refined Fats

Consumer interest in minimally processed fats and recognizable ingredients supports demand. A 2025 modeling study found that extra virgin olive oil could serve as the primary fat source in Mediterranean, pesco-vegetarian, and ovo-lacto-vegetarian dietary patterns while maintaining nutritional adequacy and sustainability measures. This positions olive oil across several dietary preferences instead of limiting it to traditional Mediterranean cooking. Deoleo reported an 18.00% increase in domestic Spanish sales volume in 2025 as availability and pricing improved. The result indicates that some demand returned when price pressure eased after the earlier shortage period. Demand also benefits when retailers present extra virgin products as a daily cooking oil rather than as a specialty purchase. This approach can support wider household use while retaining a distinct premium tier for certified and high-phenolic products.

Climate Change and Weather-Related Supply Volatility

Climate exposure remains a central risk for the olive oil market because production is concentrated in Mediterranean growing regions. A 2025 study identified declining solar irradiance and increasing water stress as linked long-term risks for olive production in the eastern Mediterranean. Spain also experienced severe weather in 2025, including Storm Claudia, which affected olive crops in some areas and reduced fruit suitable for extra virgin classification. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected a 10.00% fall in global output for the 2025/26 crop year. It estimated EU output at 2.055 million metric tons, compared with 2.107 million metric tons in 2024/25. The olive oil market therefore needs resilient groves, diversified sourcing, and long-term supply agreements to limit disruption.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Advancements in Olive Cultivation and Processing Technologies
• Rising Adoption of Olive Oil in Cosmetics and Personal Care Products
• High Olive Oil Prices Compared to Other Vegetable Oils, Limiting Its Adoption

Segment Analysis

Refined oil held 43.28% of the olive oil market share in 2025. It remains important for foodservice, industrial blending, and retail formats where cost, neutral flavor, and heat performance guide purchasing. The olive oil market size for refined oil is supported by buyers who use the product in high-volume cooking and prepared-food applications. Extra virgin oil is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.56% through 2031. Its growth is linked to health research, clean-label preferences, and consumer interest in recognizable sourcing. The American Heart Journal findings on extra virgin olive oil give retailers a stronger evidence base for premium shelf placement. Extra virgin products also allow producers to differentiate through harvest timing, origin, polyphenol content, and sensory profile. The olive oil market uses these attributes to separate higher-priced offerings from mainstream refined products.

Virgin oil serves consumers who want a quality step above refined oil but do not choose the premium price of extra virgin products. It occupies a useful middle position in markets where knowledge of grades is improving. This makes the olive oil market more accessible to first-time users who are learning the difference between refined, virgin, and extra virgin oils. Producers can use clear labeling to explain the intended cooking use and quality characteristics of each grade. High-phenolic, single-estate, PDO, and PGI extra virgin products are gaining importance in specialty retail and digital channels. These products depend on credible verification because provenance claims have limited value without documentation. The segment also benefits from traceability systems that show a product’s path from grower through bottling. This increases the importance of consistent quality controls across the olive oil market.

Complete Report Scope:

• Product Type
  • Refined Oil
  • Virgin Oil
  • Extra Virgin Oil
• Nature
  • Organic
  • Conventional
• End Use
  • Retail
    • Supermarkets/Hypermarkets
    • Specialty Stores
    • Online Retail Channels
    • Other Retail Channels
  • Foodservice
  • Industrial
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • Rest of North America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Netherlands
    • Sweden
    • Poland
    • Belgium
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • Vietnam
    • Indonesia
    • Thailand
    • Singapore
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Chile
    • Peru
    • Colombia
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Nigeria
    • Egypt
    • Morocco
    • Turkey
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

North America held 42.18% of the olive oil market share in 2025. The United States is the principal regional demand center, and USDA data projected record consumption of 478,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year. The olive oil market size in North America is supported by health-oriented purchasing, established supermarket distribution, and demand for premium extra virgin products. Branded suppliers compete alongside private labels in mass retail and warehouse-club channels. Canada remains sensitive to changes in trade conditions and sourcing patterns. Mexico provides a potential expansion path as modern grocery formats become more widely available. The olive oil market in the region can grow through clearer quality communication and products suited to routine cooking.

Europe remains the main production center and a major consuming region for the olive oil market. The USDA estimated EU production at 2.055 million metric tons in 2025/26. Consumption differs widely within the region, with Greece at 9.30 liters per person annually and Spain at 7.50 liters, compared with 1.00 liter in Germany and the Netherlands. This difference leaves room for wider use in Northern and Eastern European households. Certified PDO and PGI products face pressure when the price gap versus blended oils increases. European producers must therefore protect quality credentials while supplying more accessible offerings. Brazil’s olive oil imports increased by 40.50% in the first 6 months of the 2025/26 crop year compared with the same period a year earlier. This gives the olive oil market an expanding import destination in South America.

Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.82% through 2031, the fastest regional rate in the olive oil market. China has demand from food manufacturing, where oil properties can be relevant in sauces, convenience foods, and processed products. India has room for longer-term growth, but high prices continue to limit broad household use. The Middle East and Africa include producer-consumer countries such as Turkey, Morocco, and Egypt, as well as premium import markets. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa support branded imports through food culture, expatriate demand, and higher-income consumer groups. These regional differences require distinct pack sizes, quality grades, and pricing strategies. The olive oil market cannot rely on a single export model across the region.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Deoleo S.A.
• Acesur Group
• Migasa Group
• Borges Agricultural & Industrial Edible Oils
• Sovena Group
• Grupo Ybarra Alimentación
• Salov S.p.A.
• Monini S.p.A.
• Costa d'Oro S.p.A.
• Farchioni Olii S.p.A.
• Colavita S.p.A.
• Gallo Worldwide (Victor Guedes S.A.)
• Cargill Inc.
• Bunge Global SA
• Pompeian Inc.
• Oliviers & Co.
• Aceites Maeva S.L.
• Jaencoop Group
• Gaea Products S.A.
• Minerva S.A. Edible Oils

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support