Heat Recovery Steam Generator - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The heat recovery steam generator market size is expected to grow from USD 1.51 billion in 2025 to USD 1.59 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 2.02 billion by 2031 at 5.01% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Design (Horizontal Drum HRSG, Vertical Drum HRSG, and Once-Through HRSG), End User (Power Plants, Oil and Gas Facilities, Chemical and Fertilizer Plants, Metal and Mining, Pulp and Paper, and More), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Heat Recovery Steam Generator Market Trends and Insights

Expansion of CCGT Capacity Pipeline

Global developers anticipate commissioning more than 18.7 GW of new combined-cycle capacity in the United States by 2028, with parallel multigigawatt programs also advancing in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and China. Project sponsors are specifying HRSGs that tolerate wider exhaust-gas temperatures from hydrogen-capable turbines and integrate exhaust-gas recirculation to cut carbon-capture costs by 6%. As turbine backlogs extend to 2029, utilities are placing early equipment orders, shifting the competitive advantage toward vendors with captive module fabrication capabilities. The robust pipeline provides multi-year revenue visibility for the heat recovery steam generator market, although schedule risk remains tied to turbine availability and financing milestones. Design complexity is trending upward because owners demand rapid starts, part-load efficiency, and materials resilience under high-hydrogen combustion gases.

Industrial Emission-Reduction Mandates

The US Environmental Protection Agency now requires 90% CO₂ abatement for long-run coal and new baseload gas plants by 2032, prompting industrial campuses to retrofit or build cogeneration plants centered on HRSG technology. European chemical producers, exemplified by BASF’s 160 MW heat-pump-steam complex in Germany, illustrate how mandates convert environmental compliance into energy-efficiency investments. Facilities pursuing net-zero pathways incorporate triple-pressure HRSGs that feed both process steam and solvent-based capture units. Chemical and fertilizer operators seek configurations compatible with amine regeneration loads, enabling them to comply without jeopardizing throughput. Early movers who master permitting and technology integration benefit from lower lifetime compliance costs and potential carbon credit upside.

High CAPEX & Long Pay-Back vs Alternatives

The typical CCGT equipped with a triple-pressure HRSG costs USD 0.25 million per MW more than an open-cycle plant, extending payback periods to 8-12 years in low-capacity-factor grids. Developers in Southeast Asia and Africa face higher financing spreads, tilting procurement toward less efficient but cheaper OCGT sets. Growth in the heat recovery steam generator market, therefore, tends to favor jurisdictions that offer capacity payments or energy-efficiency incentives. Multilateral lenders attempt to bridge the gap with green-bond frameworks, yet disbursement timelines can delay order intake.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Operational-Cost Pressure in O&G & Chemicals
• CO₂-Capture Integration Boosting Low-Pressure Steam Demand
• Gas-Price Volatility Dampening CCGT FIDs

Segment Analysis

Once-through HRSGs, although still a minority, are projected to grow at a 6.46% CAGR through 2031, while drum-type systems accounted for 58.12% of the 2025 revenue. Horizontal drum units retain dominance in base-load CCGT blocks because they provide consistent steam purity and proven durability. Vertical drums serve space-constrained retrofit sites, particularly inside refineries. The heat recovery steam generator market size for once-through units is projected to rise from USD 0.49 billion in 2026 to USD 0.67 billion by 2031, reinforcing supplier focus on quick-start architectures. Startup curves of under 30 minutes enable plant operators to chase peak pricing windows, whereas drum systems still average 60 to 90 minutes. Hydrogen-blend pilots indicate lower chloride-induced stress corrosion on once-through tube circuitry, positioning the design as a hedge against future fuel shifts. That said, water-quality demands remain stringent; owners are investing in condensate polishing skids to safeguard turbine blades.

Horizontal drum HRSGs will continue to dominate the larger slice of the heat recovery steam generator market, as mega-scale CCGT projects exceeding 800 MW tend to opt for familiar layouts and economies of scale. OEMs package triple-pressure with reheat trains to maximize combined-cycle output beyond 64% net efficiency, as validated by Thailand’s 5,300 MW M701JAC cluster. Enhancements, such as 3D-printed low-pressure economizer fins and advanced T91 steel headers, mitigate fatigue from cycling, thereby extending service intervals. Over the forecast horizon, incremental upgrades ask smart soot-blowing and infrared tube monitoring will prolong the competitive life of drum configurations, even as once-through units proliferate in mid-merit plants.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Design
  • Horizontal Drum HRSG
  • Vertical Drum HRSG
  • Once-Through HRSG
• By End User
  • Power Plants
  • Oil and Gas Facilities
  • Chemical and Fertilizer Plants
  • Metal and Mining
  • Pulp and Paper
  • Other Industrial Users
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific continues to headline both market share and growth velocity. The region generated 42.55% of global 2025 revenue, and its 5.73% CAGR promises an incremental USD 0.22 billion by 2031, supported by multi-gigawatt CCGT expansions in China, India, Vietnam, and Thailand. China’s Huizhou hydrogen-ready CHP block exemplifies how developers future-proof assets for 50% H₂ firing, embedding once-through HRSGs with advanced fin-tube alloys. India’s national hydrogen mission is spurring the commissioning of cogeneration retrofits with dual-fuel turbines in Gujarat and Odisha. Japan’s fleet-renewal projects favor compact vertical-drum HRSGs for brownfield grid-balancing plants, aided by local content incentives.

North America leverages replacement cycles and emissions standards to sustain demand. The Environmental Protection Agency’s 90% CO₂ rule accelerates repowering of coal sites with CCGT-HRSG blocks that include spare pads for solvent regeneration exchangers. US Gulf Coast refineries embrace once-through HRSGs on aeroderivative turbines to hedge against LNG price volatility and carbon pricing proposals. Canada’s Alberta industrial carbon-capture hub contracts HRSG suppliers for waste-to-energy plants integrating post-combustion capture, expanding non-utility use cases.

Europe pursues decarbonization through high-efficiency, hydrogen-blend-capable HRSGs. Germany’s phase-out of unabated coal drives utilities to order triple-pressure, reheat systems with exhaust-gas recirculation for capture readiness. The Netherlands incentivizes combined heat-and-power upgrades in greenhouse horticulture, opening a niche segment for compact two-pressure HRSGs paired with small frame turbines. Supply-chain reliance on Asian pressure-part fabricators, however, exposes European projects to logistics delays, propelling interest in localized module assembly.

The Middle East records accelerating orders linked to Vision 2030 and industrial diversification. Saudi Arabia’s 7.2 GW CCGT pipeline specifies carbon-capture-ready HRSGs rated for 46 bar low-pressure steam to accommodate solvent regeneration, signaling design upgrades beyond conventional evaporator banks. Qatar’s North Field LNG expansion opts for compact HRSGs on aeroderivative turbines to maximize modular integration. United Arab Emirates utilities emphasize service contracts that guarantee 98% availability, funneling after-sales revenues to OEMs.

South America and Africa remain nascent but promising. Brazil tenders gas-fired thermal capacity to back solar and wind, including Bahia plants fitted with locally fabricated vertical-drum HRSGs to satisfy content rules. Nigeria and Mozambique evaluate small CCGT packages for industrial parks, but financing hurdles persist. Nonetheless, regional gas discoveries position both continents as long-term growth candidates once infrastructure matures.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• General Electric (GE Vernova)
• Siemens Energy AG
• Mitsubishi Power (MHI Group)
• Thermax Ltd.
• Nooter/Eriksen
• Doosan Enerbility
• CMI Energy
• Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises
• NEM Energy (John Cockerill)
• Harbin Boiler Co.
• BHI Co., Ltd.
• Kelvion Holding GmbH
• Alfa Laval AB
• AC BOILERS S.p.A.
• Sofinter S.p.A.
• Vogt Power International
• Struthers Energy & Power
• CMU Energy Solutions
• Mersen S.A.
• HTC Technologies

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support