Chronic Kidney Disease: Disease Analysis and Forecast

Summary

This report covers the 7MM (US, 5EU, Japan) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the chronic kidney disease (CKD) market through 2035.

The analyst estimates the sales of CKD therapeutics to be approximately $4.3 billion across the 7MM in 2025. By 2035, the analyst expects the CKD market to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8%, reaching sales of $10.9 billion by the end of the forecast period.

The major drivers of CKD market growth over the forecast period are:

Continued expansion of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists into kidney indications
Launch of seven oral pipeline agents and six injectable pipeline agents
Rising global CKD prevalence

The major barriers that will restrict the growth of the CKD market during the forecast period are:

High price of newly launched therapies remains a central constraint
Persisting general reluctance of nephrologists and other physicians to adopt new therapies, especially given the sheer number of new mechanisms now competing for a place in treatment algorithms, which complicates positioning and sequencing decisions in practice
Widespread use of generic CKD drugs, continuing to limit the penetration of high-priced branded therapies, particularly earlier-line CKD treatments

Scope

Overview of CKD, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
Annualized CKD therapeutics market revenue in 7MM (US, 5EU, and Japan), annual cost of therapy and treatment usage pattern in 2025 and forecast for 10 years to 2035.
Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the CKD therapeutics market.
Pipeline analysis, comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for CKD treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
Analysis of the current and future market competition in the 7MM CKD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide a qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the CKD therapeutics market.
Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the CKD therapeutics market in the future.
Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counterstrategies to gain a competitive advantage.
Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Market overview
1.2 The CKD market will exhibit strong growth between 2025 and 2035
1.3 Late-stage pipeline therapies are anticipated to drive growth in the CKD market
1.4 Unmet needs remain in the CKD market despite the availability of well-established therapies
1.5 Oral agents will dominate the CKD market
1.6 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related reports
2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Classification or staging systems

4 Epidemiology

4.1 Disease background
4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
4.3 Global and historical trends
4.4 7MM forecast methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: total prevalent cases of CKD
4.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: total prevalent cases of CKD by stage
4.4.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
4.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage
4.4.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD based on dialysis dependence
4.5 Epidemiological forecast for CKD (2025-35)
4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of CKD
4.5.2 Total prevalent cases of CKD by stage
4.5.3 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
4.5.4 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
4.5.5 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage
4.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by dialysis dependence
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
4.6.2 Limitations of the analysis
4.6.3 Strengths of the analysis

5 Disease Management

5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
5.2 Key opinion leader insights on disease management

6 Current Treatment Options

6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview
7.2 Drug cost and market access
7.3 Improved patient compliance
7.4 Clinical trial endpoint and patient selection
7.5 Patient education and awareness

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Optimizing and combining systemic disease-modifying agents
8.1.2 New pathway-based strategies
8.2 Clinical trials design
8.2.1 Clinical endpoints for CKD
8.2.2 Large event-driven trials

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive assessment

11 Current and Future Players

11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

12.1 Seven major markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key events
12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key events
12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
12.4 Japan
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key events
12.4.3 Drivers and barriers

13 Appendix

13.1 Bibliography
13.2 Abbreviations
13.3 Methodology
13.3.1 Forecast methodology
13.4 Primary research - Key opinion leaders interviewed for this report
13.4.1 Key opinion leaders
13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
13.6 About the authors
13.6.1 Managing Analyst
13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
13.6.3 Epidemiologists
13.6.4 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology
13.6.5 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence

About the Analyst
Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1: CKD key metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Stages of CKD
Table 3: KDIGO classification of CKD
Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for CKD
Table 5: Common diagnostic tests for CKD
Table 6: Treatment guidelines for CKD
Table 7: Top 10 deals by value, 2023-26
Table 8: CKD market - global drivers and barriers, 2025-35
Table 9: Key events impacting sales for CKD in the US, 2025-35
Table 10: CKD market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2025-35
Table 11: Key events impacting sales for CKD in the 5EU, 2025-35
Table 12: CKD market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2025-35
Table 13: Key events impacting sales for CKD in Japan, 2025-35
Table 14: CKD market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2025-35
Table 15: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global CKD sales forecast by country in 2025 and 2035
Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in CKD during the forecast period
Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of CKD during the forecast period
Figure 4: The etiology of CKD
Figure 5: The pathophysiology of ESRD
Figure 6: 7MM, total prevalence of CKD, men and women, %, =18 years, 2015-35
Figure 7: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of CKD, men and women, %, =18 years, 2015-35
Figure 8: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total prevalent cases of CKD
Figure 9: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total prevalent cases of CKD by stage
Figure 10: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
Figure 11: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage
Figure 12: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by dialysis dependence
Figure 13: 7MM, total prevalent cases of CKD, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 14: 7MM, total prevalent cases of CKD by stage, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 15: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 16: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by age, N, both sexes, 2025
Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by sex, N, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage, N, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by dialysis dependence, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD based on dialysis-dependence subtype, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2025
Figure 21: Unmet needs and opportunities in CKD
Figure 22: Overview of the development pipeline in CKD
Figure 23: Key late-stage trials for the promising pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of CKD in the 7MM during the forecast period
Figure 24: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of CKD during the forecast period
Figure 25: Competitive assessment of the oral pipeline drugs benchmarked against the standard of care
Figure 26: Competitive assessment of the injectable pipeline drugs benchmarked against the standard of care
Figure 27: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in CKD during the forecast period
Figure 28: 7MM sales forecast by country for CKD in 2025 and 2035
Figure 29: Sales forecast by class for CKD in 2025 and 2035
Figure 30: Sales forecast by class for CKD in the 5EU 2025 and 2035
Figure 31: Sales forecast by class for CKD in Japan in 2025 and 2035

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

AstraZeneca
Bayer
Boehringer Ingelheim
Eli Lilly
J&J
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk
CSL
ProKidney Corp
Sarfez Pharmaceutical
Mitsubishi Tanabe

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