Grocery Retail - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The global grocery retail market was valued at USD 11.81 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to grow from USD 12.31 trillion in 2026 to reach USD 15.13 trillion by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.21% during the forecast period (2026-2031). This report is segmented by Store Format (Hypermarkets and Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, Discount Stores, Online Grocery, and Others), by Product Type (Packaged Food, Fresh Food, Beverages, Dairy and Frozen Products, and Others), by Customer Type (Household and Commercial), and by Geography (North America, South America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa). Forecasts are Expressed in USD.

Global Grocery Retail Market Trends and Insights

Omnichannel Grocery Adoption and Rapid Delivery Expansion

The global grocery retail market is shifting toward an operating model in which customers expect stores, apps, pickup, and delivery to function as a single connected service. Walmart's United States e-commerce business reached a significant share of total domestic sales in 2025 and turned profitable for the first time, indicating that scale is beginning to improve digital economics in the market. Tesco's Whoosh rapid-delivery service recorded strong growth in FY2025/26 and expanded coverage to most households in the United Kingdom, demonstrating that rapid fulfillment is becoming a standard part of grocery shopping rather than a niche service. Ahold Delhaize reported a notable rise in United States online sales at constant exchange rates in Q1 2026, with a large share of those orders fulfilled via same-day delivery, reflecting growing customer acceptance of faster fulfillment models. Retailers that own or tightly manage fulfillment, inventory visibility, and customer data are building stronger repeat demand and a more defensible cost base.

Private Label Penetration and Margin Expansion

Private label remains one of the clearest margin and value levers in the global grocery retail market. Store brand dollar sales in the United States reached USD 282.8 billion in 2025, and PLMA reported that store brands accounted for nearly half of all dollar sales gains in the United States retailing that year. This indicates that private label supports both customer value perception and retailer growth. Private label gives retailers greater control over pricing, assortment, and gross margin simultaneously. It also enables operators to respond more quickly when branded input costs rise, or shoppers become more price-conscious. In the global grocery retail market, strong private label programs are no longer purely defensive tools; they are becoming central to loyalty, basket building, and category management.

Thin Operating Margins and High Labor Intensity

The grocery retail market remains one of the most margin-constrained segments of consumer commerce. FMI reported that average food retail net profit was 1.7% in 2024, leaving little room for operators to absorb labor inflation, transport increases, or food cost volatility without adjusting store operations. Kroger's Q1 2026 results showed gross margin declining from 23.0% to 22.7% year over year, driven by higher transportation costs, egg deflation, and planned labor investment, illustrating how quickly margins can tighten in this market. FMI also noted that self-checkout accounted for 35% of all transactions in United States supermarkets in 2024, indicating that automation has become a necessity for many operators seeking to manage labor costs. Larger retailers can invest in automation and scheduling tools, while smaller chains face the same cost pressures with less capacity to make equivalent investments.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Data-Driven Assortment and Pricing Optimization
• Emerging Market Formalization and Modern Trade Penetration
• Perishability, Waste, and Cold Chain Cost Pressure

Segment Analysis

Hypermarkets and supermarkets retained their position as the largest format in the global grocery retail market, accounting for 34.82% of global revenue in 2025. This reflects their store density, broad product assortment, and the continued role of weekly stock-up shopping in many countries. Online grocery is the fastest-growing format, with a projected CAGR of 5.43% through 2031, indicating that digital convenience is capturing a growing share of the global grocery retail market. Physical formats are not losing relevance, as major operators continue to invest in stores, remodels, and local fulfillment. Walmart's plans for more than 650 store remodels, and approximately 20 new stores through 2026 and early 2027, demonstrate that physical capacity remains central to how major players compete in this market.

Online grocery is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.43% through 2031 as shoppers shift more routine and urgent purchases to digital channels. Tesco's Whoosh service crossed GBP 400 million (USD 508 million) in sales in FY2025/26, reflecting the growing role of rapid delivery in meeting fill-in and convenience-driven demand. Ahold Delhaize's same-day fulfillment model accounted for more than 90% of its United States online sales in Q1 2026, underscoring the importance of delivery speed as a competitive requirement. Traditional and convenience formats continue to serve an important role by addressing proximity needs and smaller basket sizes, particularly in markets where local shopping remains entrenched. The grocery retail market is moving toward a blended format, where store networks, click-and-collect, and same-day delivery complement rather than compete with one another.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Store Format
  • Hypermarkets and Supermarkets
  • Convenience Stores
  • Discount Stores
  • Online Grocery Retail
  • Traditional Grocery Stores
  • Other Store Formats (Cash-and-Carry, Warehouse Clubs, etc.)
• By Product Type
  • Packaged Food
  • Fresh Food
  • Beverages
  • Dairy and Frozen Products
  • Personal Care and Household Products
  • Other Product Types
• By Customer Type
  • Household Consumers
  • Commercial & Institutional Buyers
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Peru
    • Chile
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Spain
    • Italy
    • BENELUX (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg)
    • NORDICS (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden)
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • India
    • China
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • South East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippines)
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Nigeria
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific accounted for 40.14% of the Global Grocery Retail Market in 2025 and is also projected to grow at the highest CAGR of 5.97% by 2031. IGD expects the region to reach USD 4.6 trillion by 2030 at a 5% CAGR, with traditional trade accounting for 72% of incremental sales. Growth is driven not only by scale but also by gradual channel formalization, improved distribution, and more consistent digital access.

North America is experiencing more channel change than pure consumption expansion. Supermarkets held a 34.2% channel share, while online grocery is projected to grow at a 10.6% CAGR and reach 11.4% of channel share by 2030. Store remodel programs expanded physical networks, and a 3.2% food-at-home inflation forecast for 2026 reflects the growing importance of price architecture, private label, and omnichannel fulfillment.

Europe's grocery retail market is growing in a disciplined, cost-sensitive environment. Germany's food retail revenue grew 3.4% in 2025, and major operators have announced significant investment and store expansion plans. In South America, Carrefour's plan targets 70 additional Atacadão stores in Brazil by 2030, taking the network to 455 stores. Across both regions, the market is shaped by format efficiency, price pressure, and selective expansion in scalable formats.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Walmart Inc.
• Costco Wholesale Corporation
• Schwarz Group
• Aldi Einkauf SE & Co. oHG
• Carrefour S.A.
• Tesco PLC
• The Kroger Co.
• Ahold Delhaize N.V.
• Edeka Zentrale Stiftung & Co. KG
• Intermarché
• Woolworths Group Limited
• Seven & i Holdings Co. Ltd.
• Aeon Co., Ltd.
• Loblaw Companies Limited
• Coles Group Limited
• J Sainsbury plc
• Amazon.com, Inc.
• X5 Retail Group N.V.
• Rewe Group
• Mercadona S.A.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support