This report values the global grey hydrogen market - dedicated hydrogen produced from unabated natural gas, coal and oil without carbon capture - at US$126.2B in 2025, equivalent to approximately 83.5 Mt of hydrogen, and forecasts US$138.3B by 2030, a 1.8% CAGR over 2025-2030 as volumes edge up by about 0.9% a year to ~87.5 Mt. Because market value tracks feedstock prices, the historical path has been volatile: from US$114.5B in 2021 the market peaked at US$169.4B in 2022 on the gas-price shock, fell to US$119.2B in 2024 and recovered to US$126.2B in 2025 (a 2.5% historical CAGR). A further spike to about US$142.8B is expected in 2026 as the Middle East conflict and disruption of Gulf export routes lift gas, LNG and fertilizer prices, before values normalise.
Natural gas is the dominant feedstock at ~76% of grey volume, with coal-based output (often termed black or brown hydrogen and concentrated in China) at ~23% and oil ~1%. Steam methane reforming leads production technology (~66%), followed by coal gasification (~23%) and ATR/POX (~11%); ATR is the fastest-growing configuration in new-build reforming, although most new ATR capacity is being paired with CCUS and therefore migrates to blue. Captive on-site production accounts for ~86% of supply versus ~14% merchant. Ammonia is the largest application (~40%), ahead of refining (~33%), methanol (~19%) and fossil-based DRI steel (~6%), with methanol and DRI growing fastest. Asia Pacific is the largest region (~51.1% of 2025 value, led by China and India), while Africa (3.8% CAGR), Latin America (3.3%) and the Middle East (2.7%) grow fastest; Europe is broadly flat under carbon pricing.
Demand is anchored by refining, fertilizer and chemical production, mature SMR and gasification assets, existing pipelines and low production costs of roughly US$1-3/kg where gas or coal is cheap. Against this, grey hydrogen emits 10-12 kg CO₂-eq/kg from gas and 22-26 kg from coal, and hydrogen production emitted about 920 Mt CO₂ in 2023. Carbon pricing (EU ETS, CBAM covering hydrogen and ammonia from 2026), renewable-hydrogen quotas, India’s Green Hydrogen Mission and US tax-credit revisions are reshaping economics, but low-emissions hydrogen was still only ~1 Mt in 2025 and committed projects reach just over 4 Mt by 2030 - so displacement of grey supply will be gradual and concentrated in industrial clusters.
Competition spans industrial-gas majors supplying on-site and pipeline hydrogen (Linde, Air Liquide, Air Products), integrated energy and chemical producers with large captive fleets (Sinopec, Aramco, ExxonMobil) and nitrogen producers (CF Industries, Yara). Key technological developments centre on CCUS retrofits, ATR, advanced catalysts, heat integration and digital plant optimisation. Principal challenges are carbon-policy tightening, gas and coal price volatility, methane-leakage scrutiny and uncertain low-carbon offtake. Grey hydrogen therefore remains the backbone of global supply through 2030, with value driven more by feedstock and carbon costs than by volume growth.
Natural gas is the dominant feedstock at ~76% of grey volume, with coal-based output (often termed black or brown hydrogen and concentrated in China) at ~23% and oil ~1%. Steam methane reforming leads production technology (~66%), followed by coal gasification (~23%) and ATR/POX (~11%); ATR is the fastest-growing configuration in new-build reforming, although most new ATR capacity is being paired with CCUS and therefore migrates to blue. Captive on-site production accounts for ~86% of supply versus ~14% merchant. Ammonia is the largest application (~40%), ahead of refining (~33%), methanol (~19%) and fossil-based DRI steel (~6%), with methanol and DRI growing fastest. Asia Pacific is the largest region (~51.1% of 2025 value, led by China and India), while Africa (3.8% CAGR), Latin America (3.3%) and the Middle East (2.7%) grow fastest; Europe is broadly flat under carbon pricing.
Demand is anchored by refining, fertilizer and chemical production, mature SMR and gasification assets, existing pipelines and low production costs of roughly US$1-3/kg where gas or coal is cheap. Against this, grey hydrogen emits 10-12 kg CO₂-eq/kg from gas and 22-26 kg from coal, and hydrogen production emitted about 920 Mt CO₂ in 2023. Carbon pricing (EU ETS, CBAM covering hydrogen and ammonia from 2026), renewable-hydrogen quotas, India’s Green Hydrogen Mission and US tax-credit revisions are reshaping economics, but low-emissions hydrogen was still only ~1 Mt in 2025 and committed projects reach just over 4 Mt by 2030 - so displacement of grey supply will be gradual and concentrated in industrial clusters.
Competition spans industrial-gas majors supplying on-site and pipeline hydrogen (Linde, Air Liquide, Air Products), integrated energy and chemical producers with large captive fleets (Sinopec, Aramco, ExxonMobil) and nitrogen producers (CF Industries, Yara). Key technological developments centre on CCUS retrofits, ATR, advanced catalysts, heat integration and digital plant optimisation. Principal challenges are carbon-policy tightening, gas and coal price volatility, methane-leakage scrutiny and uncertain low-carbon offtake. Grey hydrogen therefore remains the backbone of global supply through 2030, with value driven more by feedstock and carbon costs than by volume growth.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Market Size and Growth
3. Market Segmentation
4. Regional and Country Analysis
5. Technology, Economics and Industry Insights
6. Competitive Landscape
7. Company Profiles
8. Strategic Insights and Outlook
List of Tables and Figures
Companies Mentioned
- Linde plc
- Air Liquide S.A.
- Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
- Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation)
- Saudi Aramco
- ExxonMobil
- CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
- Yara International ASA
