U.S. Homeland Counter-UAS Market, 2025-2030: Integration Captures the Money

The U.S. homeland counter-UAS market grows from $445.5 million in 2025 to $805.5 million by 2030, a 12.6% CAGR in the base case, as integration captures the money.

On September 29, 2026, JIATF-401 and the Army announced ten Domestic Shield counter-drone contracts carrying $4.15 billion of ceilings. The buyer had already paid first for one command-and-control platform and one integrated base-defence order. It obligated $142.0 million on its order for Anduril's Lattice platform and $80.6 million on a sole-source AeroVironment order, while $50 million had reached the ten module contracts.

This report argues that open architecture is moving lock-in up to integration. The homeland counter-UAS market in the United States was $445.5 million in 2025 and grows at a 12.6% CAGR to $805.5 million by 2030 in the base case.

The report runs 60 pages, with 12 charts and 8 data tables. It sizes the market by buyer tier and value-chain layer, and forecasts conservative, base and optimistic scenarios to 2030 with a 2035 outlook. It profiles ten companies, including Anduril, AeroVironment, RTX, L3Harris, SRC, DroneShield, Echodyne, Motorola Solutions and Axon.

Report Highlights:

• The Order of Payment, So Far: Command-and-control and an integrated base-defence order have been paid first so far. In 2026 JIATF-401 and the Army obligated $142.0 million on one order for Anduril's Lattice command-and-control platform and $80.6 million on a sole-source AeroVironment base-defence order. The ten Domestic Shield module contracts, with $4.15 billion of ceilings, carried $50 million. The Lattice record does not say how much of the order serves U.S. sites.
• Headline Sizing with a Modelled Range: The U.S. homeland counter-UAS market grows from $445.5 million in 2025 to $805.5 million by 2030, a 12.6% CAGR in the base case. The 2025 figure carries a modelled 80% range of $199-713 million. The report sets conservative and optimistic paths around the base case and carries all three to a 2035 outlook.
• Homeland Money, Separated from Expeditionary Spending: Most counter-drone contract money is not homeland money. Expeditionary, special-operations and research actions carried most of the Department of War counter-UAS obligations visible in fiscal 2025 federal contract data; the report quantifies the split across 226 actions. Military installations remain the largest homeland tier. State and local agencies are the fastest-growing tier, if FEMA's grants continue past fiscal 2027; the report sizes each tier and its growth rate.
• The State-and-Local Channel: The state-and-local channel runs through public-safety platforms. Motorola Solutions completed its $1.5 billion acquisition of D-Fend Solutions in August 2026, and Dedrone is part of Axon. A federal rule effective July 1, 2026 opens counter-drone authority to an expected 1,500 detection-tier and 150 mitigation-tier agencies within two years.
• What the Forecast Rests On: The forecast's later years rest on money not yet appropriated. The base case holds the Department's budget at its fiscal 2026 request, while fiscal 2027 funding runs on a continuing resolution to December 11, 2026. The base case excludes both the $3.9 billion the Department reports as enacted for fiscal 2026, whose composition against the fiscal 2025 line is not established, and its $20.6 billion fiscal 2027 request. If FEMA's counter-UAS grants end after fiscal 2027 and the domestic share stays at its 2025 level, growth falls to the report's conservative path. The federal civil tier declines in the base case because it follows IQPC's 2024 budget series, which predates the 2026 expansion of counter-drone authority.

This report will provide answers to the following questions:

• How large is the U.S. homeland counter-UAS market in 2025, and how fast does it grow to 2030 in the base case?
• How much of the Department of War's visible counter-drone contract money protects U.S. sites, and how much is expeditionary, special-operations or research spending?
• What have JIATF-401 and the Army obligated so far on command-and-control, on integrated base defence and on the ten Domestic Shield module contracts, against $4.15 billion of ceilings?
• How large is each buyer tier - military installations, federal civil agencies, state and local agencies, and private critical infrastructure - and which grows fastest?
• What does open architecture change at the module layer, and what does it leave in place at the command-and-control layer?
• How will the 2026 counter-drone authority rule and FEMA's grants shape demand from state and local agencies, and which channels reach them?
• How do the conservative and optimistic paths differ from the base case, and which unappropriated funding decisions move the forecast between them?
• Which companies hold positions in each layer, and how has recent M&A changed the landscape?

Methodology

Our analysis originates from primary research - direct interviews with executives, operators, and technical practitioners actively shaping these markets. This fieldwork provides access to perspective and data not available in secondary sources: what decision-makers are observing in real time, the problems driving purchasing behavior, and where they see value migrating. Every data point and claim undergoes human verification before inclusion; figures that cannot be substantiated or traced to credible sources are excluded.

Market sizing triangulates across multiple independent estimation methods, producing investment-grade estimates with assumptions documented explicitly so readers can evaluate the underlying logic, stress-test key inputs, and defend the numbers in boardrooms and diligence processes. We validate quantitative claims against peer-reviewed research, regulatory filings, and observable market signals - including systematic searches for contradicting evidence. Where methods produce divergent estimates, we investigate the source of variance and report ranges rather than false precision. Forecasts are constructed through scenario modeling anchored to base rates from comparable markets. (While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, forward-looking statements reflect current expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially.)

The result is thesis-driven analysis that delivers clear conclusions: specific enough to cite, transparent enough to verify, comprehensive enough to satisfy diligence requirements, and rigorous enough to withstand the follow-up question.

Target Audience

• Defense business-development teams who need a defensible homeland number
• Investors valuing counter-drone and integration companies
• Public-safety vendors entering the state and local counter-drone channel