The global Bio-SAF Market was valued at USD 3.95 billion in 2025. It is estimated to reach USD 4.99 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 42.00 billion by 2036, at a CAGR of 23.7% during the forecast period. In volume terms, the market is projected to grow from 2,375 kilotonnes in 2026 to 17,252 kilotonnes by 2036, at a CAGR of 21.9%, with the average price rising from USD 2,101 per tonne in 2026 to USD 2,435 per tonne in 2036. This report offers a detailed look at the market, covering key trends, production pathways, feedstock supply, policy developments, competitive activity, and future growth opportunities.
Bio-based sustainable aviation fuel, or bio-SAF, is jet fuel made from biogenic feedstock rather than crude oil. It is produced through several certified pathways, including hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA-SPK), co-processing in existing refineries, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-SPK), and gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT-SPK), using feedstocks such as used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils, agricultural and forestry residues, and sugar and starch-based alcohols. Because the finished fuel meets the same specification as conventional jet fuel, it can be blended and used in existing aircraft, engines, and airport fuelling systems without modification.
Global SAF production reached about 1.0 Mt in 2024 and an estimated 1.9 Mt in 2025, equal to 0.6% of total jet fuel, according to IATA, which projected 2.4 Mt, or 0.8% of jet fuel, for 2026 and estimated that SAF added USD 3.6 billion to the airline fuel bill in 2025. Mandates are now the main source of demand. EASA reported in September 2026 that 1.1 Mt of SAF was supplied at Union airports in 2025, a 2.8% share against the 2% minimum of ReFuelEU Aviation and nearly six times the 193,000 tonnes supplied in 2024. The U.K. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Act 2026 created a Revenue Certainty Mechanism, Singapore applies a SAF levy on tickets from 1 October 2026 for flights departing from 1 January 2027, and Brazil requires air operators to cut emissions on domestic flights by 1% from January 2027, rising to 10% by 2037.
The report examines production pathways and certification, the feedstock landscape and traceability, the value chain, regulations and policy, pricing against fossil jet fuel, prices by pathway and feedstock, offtake agreements and book-and-claim arrangements, and competitive strategies. It also provides market forecasts in value and volume, segment-level insights, and regional analysis across 5 regions and 23 countries and sub-regions to support business, investment, and project decisions.
SAF costs about twice as much as fossil jet fuel, and up to five times as much in mandated markets, according to IATA, which keeps demand tied to regulation rather than economics. Sustainable lipid feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats are in limited supply and are already contested by renewable diesel producers. Feedstock traceability and fraud risk remain a significant concern, particularly as 85% of the feedstock for SAF supplied in the European Union in 2025 came from outside the EU according to EASA. Project risk is also visible in cancellations, with Shell abandoning its 820 kilotonne a year Rotterdam biofuels plant and bp its Rotterdam SAF and HVO project in September 2025.
Scaling up the alcohol-to-jet and gasification pathways offers the clearest route past the limits of waste lipids, since both can use ethanol, agricultural residues, and forestry residues that are available in far larger volumes. New demand centers in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are emerging as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, and Brazil introduce their own targets and levies. Co-processing biogenic feedstock in existing refineries offers a low-capital way to add volume quickly, while the conversion of petroleum refineries to renewable fuel production, the growing use of book-and-claim and SAF certificates through registries such as the CADO SAF Registry, and rising price differentiation by pathway and feedstock are shaping how the market develops.
Based on production pathway, the market is segmented into HEFA-SPK, co-processing, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-SPK), Fischer-Tropsch (FT-SPK), and other pathways such as HFS-SIP, catalytic hydrothermolysis, and pyrolysis-based routes. In 2026, HEFA-SPK is expected to account for the largest share of 84.6% of the market. Lipid hydroprocessing is the only pathway already operating at commercial scale in several regions, led by Neste with SAF production capability of 1.5 million tonnes a year, and the U.S. SAF capacity of about 30,000 barrels per day reported by the EIA for early 2025 is all HEFA. The alcohol-to-jet segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by the first commercial-scale jet fuel from ethanol produced to ASTM specification at the LanzaJet Freedom Pines plant in Georgia in November 2025, and by ethanol supply in the U.S., Brazil, and India, which gives the pathway a feedstock base outside waste lipids.
Based on feedstock, the market is segmented into used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils, other waste & residue lipids, agricultural & forestry residues, sugar & starch-based alcohols, and other biogenic feedstocks. In 2026, used cooking oil is expected to hold the largest share of 57.1%, as it qualifies as a waste feedstock under the Renewable Energy Directive, has low carbon intensity, and is the main input for the HEFA plants serving European mandates, where it made up about 80% of the feedstock for SAF supplied in 2025 according to EASA. The agricultural & forestry residues segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by gasification and Fischer-Tropsch projects, the need for feedstocks that do not compete with the limited pool of waste lipids, and the U.K. Revenue Certainty Mechanism, which excludes HEFA fuel while supporting other biofuel pathways.
Based on application, the market is segmented into passenger aviation (narrow-body, wide-body, and regional aircraft), cargo aviation, business & general aviation, and military aviation. In 2026, passenger aviation is expected to hold the largest share of 89.6%, reflecting the weight of passenger airlines in total jet fuel use and mandates that apply to all fuel uplifted at covered airports, such as the ReFuelEU Aviation rule that yearly uplift at each Union airport must be at least 90% of the fuel required. The cargo aviation segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by long-term offtakes from cargo integrators, including the three-year agreement for about 83 million gallons of SAF from Rodeo that DHL Express signed with Phillips 66 in November 2025.
In 2026, Europe is expected to account for the largest share of 60.9% of the global market. ReFuelEU Aviation delivered 1.1 Mt of SAF at 121 Union airports across all 27 Member States in 2025, against 33 airports in 2024, according to EASA, while the U.K. SAF Mandate rises to 3.6% in 2026 and 10% in 2030. The region also hosts major production, including Neste's Rotterdam and Porvoo plants and converted refineries operated by Eni, TotalEnergies, Repsol, and OMV.
North America holds a 29.7% share in 2026, supported by HEFA capacity at Port Arthur and Rodeo, the Section 45Z credit, and state-level programs. Asia-Pacific, with a 6.9% share, is expected to grow the fastest during the forecast period, driven by the Singapore SAF levy on flights departing from 1 January 2027, South Korea's 1% mandate on international departures from 2027 that it plans to raise to 7% to 10% by 2035, Japan's target to replace 10% of jet fuel with SAF by 2030, and China, where four airworthiness-certified producers held 600 kilotonnes a year of combined certified capacity in 2025. Latin America is led by Brazil, where Law 14,993/2024 sets rising emission reduction requirements for domestic flights, and the Middle East & Africa is a smaller market where the UAE and Saudi Arabia are developing supply alongside their wider energy transition plans.
A few large HEFA producers accounted for most supply in the global bio-SAF market in 2025. Neste reported SAF sales of 0.867 Mt in 2025, almost half of the 1.9 Mt of global SAF production estimated by IATA, while Valero Energy Corporation, through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture with Darling Ingredients, reported neat SAF revenue of USD 904.8 million in its first full year of SAF output at Port Arthur. Oil majors such as Eni, TotalEnergies, Repsol, and OMV compete through converted refineries and co-processing, Chinese producers such as Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech and Sinopec through HEFA capacity that has begun to supply export markets, and LanzaJet through alcohol-to-jet technology and licensing. The report ranks the profiled companies by disclosed SAF capacity or output in 2025, with Neste first, followed by Valero Energy Corporation, Eni S.p.A., and Phillips 66.
Between January 2025 and October 2026, the profiled companies started new capacity, signed long-term offtakes, and raised project finance. Calumet, through Montana Renewables, drew a first loan tranche of USD 782 million from the U.S. Department of Energy in February 2025 and agreed to supply World Energy with more than 70 million gallons of SAF over three years, TotalEnergies and SARIA closed project financing for the 230 kilotonne a year Grandpuits SAF biorefinery in February 2026, Eni secured a EUR 500 million loan from the European Investment Bank in April 2026 for a biorefinery at Sannazzaro, and Repsol started a second 200 kilotonne a year renewable fuels plant at Puertollano in June 2026. Competition is therefore moving from building first plants toward securing feedstock, offtake, and finance.
Key companies profiled in the report include Neste Oyj (Finland), Valero Energy Corporation (U.S.), Phillips 66 (U.S.), Calumet, Inc. (U.S.), Eni S.p.A. (Italy), TotalEnergies SE (France), Repsol, S.A. (Spain), OMV Aktiengesellschaft (Austria), LanzaJet, Inc. (U.S.), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (China), Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd. (China), Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (Japan), SK Innovation Co., Ltd. (South Korea), and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (India).
Bio-based sustainable aviation fuel, or bio-SAF, is jet fuel made from biogenic feedstock rather than crude oil. It is produced through several certified pathways, including hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA-SPK), co-processing in existing refineries, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-SPK), and gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT-SPK), using feedstocks such as used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils, agricultural and forestry residues, and sugar and starch-based alcohols. Because the finished fuel meets the same specification as conventional jet fuel, it can be blended and used in existing aircraft, engines, and airport fuelling systems without modification.
Global SAF production reached about 1.0 Mt in 2024 and an estimated 1.9 Mt in 2025, equal to 0.6% of total jet fuel, according to IATA, which projected 2.4 Mt, or 0.8% of jet fuel, for 2026 and estimated that SAF added USD 3.6 billion to the airline fuel bill in 2025. Mandates are now the main source of demand. EASA reported in September 2026 that 1.1 Mt of SAF was supplied at Union airports in 2025, a 2.8% share against the 2% minimum of ReFuelEU Aviation and nearly six times the 193,000 tonnes supplied in 2024. The U.K. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Act 2026 created a Revenue Certainty Mechanism, Singapore applies a SAF levy on tickets from 1 October 2026 for flights departing from 1 January 2027, and Brazil requires air operators to cut emissions on domestic flights by 1% from January 2027, rising to 10% by 2037.
The report examines production pathways and certification, the feedstock landscape and traceability, the value chain, regulations and policy, pricing against fossil jet fuel, prices by pathway and feedstock, offtake agreements and book-and-claim arrangements, and competitive strategies. It also provides market forecasts in value and volume, segment-level insights, and regional analysis across 5 regions and 23 countries and sub-regions to support business, investment, and project decisions.
Market Dynamics
Binding blending mandates in Europe are the main driver of this market, as ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. SAF Mandate require fuel suppliers to deliver rising volumes of SAF regardless of price. Airlines and cargo operators have added their own decarbonization commitments, signing long-term offtake agreements that give producers the revenue certainty they need to build plants. Government incentives are also supporting new capacity, including the U.S. Section 45Z clean fuel production credit, which the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of July 2025 extended to 2029, and the U.K. Revenue Certainty Mechanism. On the supply side, Neste started SAF production at Rotterdam in April 2025, raising its SAF production capability to 1.5 million tonnes a year, and LanzaJet produced ASTM on-spec fuel from ethanol at Freedom Pines in November 2025.SAF costs about twice as much as fossil jet fuel, and up to five times as much in mandated markets, according to IATA, which keeps demand tied to regulation rather than economics. Sustainable lipid feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats are in limited supply and are already contested by renewable diesel producers. Feedstock traceability and fraud risk remain a significant concern, particularly as 85% of the feedstock for SAF supplied in the European Union in 2025 came from outside the EU according to EASA. Project risk is also visible in cancellations, with Shell abandoning its 820 kilotonne a year Rotterdam biofuels plant and bp its Rotterdam SAF and HVO project in September 2025.
Scaling up the alcohol-to-jet and gasification pathways offers the clearest route past the limits of waste lipids, since both can use ethanol, agricultural residues, and forestry residues that are available in far larger volumes. New demand centers in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are emerging as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, and Brazil introduce their own targets and levies. Co-processing biogenic feedstock in existing refineries offers a low-capital way to add volume quickly, while the conversion of petroleum refineries to renewable fuel production, the growing use of book-and-claim and SAF certificates through registries such as the CADO SAF Registry, and rising price differentiation by pathway and feedstock are shaping how the market develops.
Segment Analysis
The report analyzes the market by production pathway, feedstock, application, and geography, helping stakeholders identify the most promising growth opportunities.Based on production pathway, the market is segmented into HEFA-SPK, co-processing, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-SPK), Fischer-Tropsch (FT-SPK), and other pathways such as HFS-SIP, catalytic hydrothermolysis, and pyrolysis-based routes. In 2026, HEFA-SPK is expected to account for the largest share of 84.6% of the market. Lipid hydroprocessing is the only pathway already operating at commercial scale in several regions, led by Neste with SAF production capability of 1.5 million tonnes a year, and the U.S. SAF capacity of about 30,000 barrels per day reported by the EIA for early 2025 is all HEFA. The alcohol-to-jet segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by the first commercial-scale jet fuel from ethanol produced to ASTM specification at the LanzaJet Freedom Pines plant in Georgia in November 2025, and by ethanol supply in the U.S., Brazil, and India, which gives the pathway a feedstock base outside waste lipids.
Based on feedstock, the market is segmented into used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils, other waste & residue lipids, agricultural & forestry residues, sugar & starch-based alcohols, and other biogenic feedstocks. In 2026, used cooking oil is expected to hold the largest share of 57.1%, as it qualifies as a waste feedstock under the Renewable Energy Directive, has low carbon intensity, and is the main input for the HEFA plants serving European mandates, where it made up about 80% of the feedstock for SAF supplied in 2025 according to EASA. The agricultural & forestry residues segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by gasification and Fischer-Tropsch projects, the need for feedstocks that do not compete with the limited pool of waste lipids, and the U.K. Revenue Certainty Mechanism, which excludes HEFA fuel while supporting other biofuel pathways.
Based on application, the market is segmented into passenger aviation (narrow-body, wide-body, and regional aircraft), cargo aviation, business & general aviation, and military aviation. In 2026, passenger aviation is expected to hold the largest share of 89.6%, reflecting the weight of passenger airlines in total jet fuel use and mandates that apply to all fuel uplifted at covered airports, such as the ReFuelEU Aviation rule that yearly uplift at each Union airport must be at least 90% of the fuel required. The cargo aviation segment is expected to grow the fastest, driven by long-term offtakes from cargo integrators, including the three-year agreement for about 83 million gallons of SAF from Rodeo that DHL Express signed with Phillips 66 in November 2025.
Regional Analysis
The report covers North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa, spanning 23 countries and sub-regions. The regional analysis considers mandates and incentives, refining and conversion capacity, feedstock availability, airport uplift, airline commitments, and certification frameworks.In 2026, Europe is expected to account for the largest share of 60.9% of the global market. ReFuelEU Aviation delivered 1.1 Mt of SAF at 121 Union airports across all 27 Member States in 2025, against 33 airports in 2024, according to EASA, while the U.K. SAF Mandate rises to 3.6% in 2026 and 10% in 2030. The region also hosts major production, including Neste's Rotterdam and Porvoo plants and converted refineries operated by Eni, TotalEnergies, Repsol, and OMV.
North America holds a 29.7% share in 2026, supported by HEFA capacity at Port Arthur and Rodeo, the Section 45Z credit, and state-level programs. Asia-Pacific, with a 6.9% share, is expected to grow the fastest during the forecast period, driven by the Singapore SAF levy on flights departing from 1 January 2027, South Korea's 1% mandate on international departures from 2027 that it plans to raise to 7% to 10% by 2035, Japan's target to replace 10% of jet fuel with SAF by 2030, and China, where four airworthiness-certified producers held 600 kilotonnes a year of combined certified capacity in 2025. Latin America is led by Brazil, where Law 14,993/2024 sets rising emission reduction requirements for domestic flights, and the Middle East & Africa is a smaller market where the UAE and Saudi Arabia are developing supply alongside their wider energy transition plans.
Competitive Landscape
The report provides a detailed review of the competitive landscape, covering growth strategies, competitive benchmarking, market positioning, rank analysis, SAF production capacity, product portfolios, strategic developments, and financial performance of leading companies.A few large HEFA producers accounted for most supply in the global bio-SAF market in 2025. Neste reported SAF sales of 0.867 Mt in 2025, almost half of the 1.9 Mt of global SAF production estimated by IATA, while Valero Energy Corporation, through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture with Darling Ingredients, reported neat SAF revenue of USD 904.8 million in its first full year of SAF output at Port Arthur. Oil majors such as Eni, TotalEnergies, Repsol, and OMV compete through converted refineries and co-processing, Chinese producers such as Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech and Sinopec through HEFA capacity that has begun to supply export markets, and LanzaJet through alcohol-to-jet technology and licensing. The report ranks the profiled companies by disclosed SAF capacity or output in 2025, with Neste first, followed by Valero Energy Corporation, Eni S.p.A., and Phillips 66.
Between January 2025 and October 2026, the profiled companies started new capacity, signed long-term offtakes, and raised project finance. Calumet, through Montana Renewables, drew a first loan tranche of USD 782 million from the U.S. Department of Energy in February 2025 and agreed to supply World Energy with more than 70 million gallons of SAF over three years, TotalEnergies and SARIA closed project financing for the 230 kilotonne a year Grandpuits SAF biorefinery in February 2026, Eni secured a EUR 500 million loan from the European Investment Bank in April 2026 for a biorefinery at Sannazzaro, and Repsol started a second 200 kilotonne a year renewable fuels plant at Puertollano in June 2026. Competition is therefore moving from building first plants toward securing feedstock, offtake, and finance.
Key companies profiled in the report include Neste Oyj (Finland), Valero Energy Corporation (U.S.), Phillips 66 (U.S.), Calumet, Inc. (U.S.), Eni S.p.A. (Italy), TotalEnergies SE (France), Repsol, S.A. (Spain), OMV Aktiengesellschaft (Austria), LanzaJet, Inc. (U.S.), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (China), Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd. (China), Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (Japan), SK Innovation Co., Ltd. (South Korea), and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (India).
How This Report Helps
- Provides reliable market size estimates and long-term forecasts in value and volume for the global bio-SAF market.
- Explains how blending mandates, airline commitments, production costs, feedstock limits, and incentive schemes affect market growth.
- Identifies high-growth opportunities across production pathway, feedstock, application, and region.
- Analyzes certified pathways, feedstock availability and traceability, pricing against fossil jet fuel, offtake agreements, and book-and-claim arrangements.
- Benchmarks leading companies based on their SAF production capacity, technology routes, offtake positions, and market standing.
- Supports project development, offtake negotiation, investment planning, partnership evaluation, market entry, and business expansion decisions.
- Delivers practical market insights for refiners, SAF producers, technology licensors, feedstock suppliers, airlines, cargo operators, airports, and investors.
Key Questions Answered
- How big is the global bio-SAF market today in value and volume, and how will it grow through 2036?
- What regulatory, technological, and economic factors are driving market growth?
- What are the main drivers, restraints, opportunities, challenges, and trends shaping the industry?
- Which production pathway, feedstock, application, and regional segments will grow the fastest?
- How do ReFuelEU Aviation, the U.K. SAF Mandate, CORSIA, and Asia-Pacific programs affect SAF demand?
- How does the price of bio-SAF compare with fossil jet fuel, and how does it differ by pathway and feedstock?
- Which regions and countries offer the most attractive business opportunities?
- Who are the leading companies in the market, how do they rank by SAF capacity, and what strategies are they following?
- How can stakeholders use this report to support investment decisions, project development, competitive benchmarking, and long-term strategy?
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Research Methodology
3. Executive Summary
4. Market Overview
5. Bio-SAF Market, by Production Pathway
6. Bio-SAF Market, by Feedstock
7. Bio-SAF Market, by Application
8. Bio-SAF Market, by Geography
9. Competitive Landscape
10. Company Profiles
11. Appendix
List of Tables
List of Figures
Companies Mentioned
- Neste Oyj
- Valero Energy Corporation
- Phillips 66
- Calumet, Inc.
- Eni S.p.A.
- TotalEnergies SE
- Repsol, S.A.
- OMV Aktiengesellschaft
- LanzaJet, Inc.
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
- Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd.
- Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.
- SK Innovation Co., Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited (India)
