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Obesity: Disease Analysis and Forecast

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    Report

  • 183 Pages
  • October 2026
  • Region: Global
  • GlobalData
  • ID: 6290951

Obesity: Disease Analysis and Forecast

Summary

This report covers the 7MM (US, 5EU, Japan) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the obesity market through 2035.
  • In 2025, the analyst estimated the total obesity market to be valued at $34.6 billion across the 7MM, with the US accounting for 82.6% of the market. Over the forecast period, the obesity market is anticipated to grow to a value of $118.2 billion in 2035.
  • There will be an increase in therapies with longer duration of action, such as Novo’s CagriSema (semaglutide + cagrilintide) and zenagamtide, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide and retatrutide, and Amgen’s MariTide, consequently improving patient compliance for obesity patients who may already experience a heavy treatment burden due to comorbid conditions.
  • Multi-organ label expansion is broadening the clinical and reimbursement rationale, with glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agents moving beyond weight loss and type 2 diabetes (T2D) and into cardiovascular risk reduction, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and chronic kidney disease (CKD), among other indications.
  • Therapies with new routes of administration will enter the market, such as Novo’s Wegovy pill (oral semaglutide), Eli Lilly’s Foundayo (orforglipron), Structure Therapeutics’ GSBR-1290, and other oral agents with different mechanisms of actions, such as enobosarm.

Scope

  • Overview of obesity, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized obesity therapeutics market revenue in 7MM (US, 5EU, and Japan), annual cost of therapy and treatment usage pattern in 2025 and forecast for 10 years to 2035.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the obesity therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis, comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for obesity treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the 7MM obesity therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide a qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the obesity therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the obesity therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counterstrategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary
1.1 Market overview
1.2 The obesity market will grow significantly during the forecast period, reaching sales of $118.2 billion in 2035
1.3 Key players will maintain their competitive position
1.4 While the outlook in obesity improves, opportunities remain to improve patient outcomes
1.5 Late-stage pipeline therapies are anticipated to drive growth in the obesity market
1.6 What do physicians think?
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related reports
2.3 Upcoming reports
3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Classification or staging systems
4 Epidemiology
4.1 Disease background
4.2 Global and historical trends
4.3 Global and historical trends
4.4 7MM forecast methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: total prevalent cases of overweight and obesity
4.4.4 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight and obesity
4.4.5 Total and diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight and obesity by BMI class
4.4.6 Total and diagnosed prevalent cases of pediatric obesity by severity
4.4.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by comorbidity
4.5 Epidemiological forecast for overweight and obesity (2025-35)
4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of overweight
4.5.2 Total prevalent cases of obesity
4.5.3 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
4.5.4 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
4.5.5 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by BMI class
4.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
4.5.8 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
4.5.9 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
4.5.10 Diagnosed prevalent cases of pediatric obesity by severity
4.5.11 Diagnosed prevalent cases of adult obesity by BMI class
4.5.12 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by comorbidity
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
4.6.2 Limitations of the analysis
4.6.3 Strengths of the analysis
5 Disease Management
5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
5.1.1 Treatment overview
5.2 Key opinion leader insights on disease management
5.2.1 Treatment approach
6 Current Treatment Options
6.1 Overview
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Long-term weight maintenance
7.3 GI tolerability/side-effect burden
7.4 Lean mass preservation and metabolic adaptation
7.5 Cost of therapy
7.6 Specialist capacity and structural prescribing access
8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Multi-receptor agonism
8.1.2 Development of oral agents
8.2 Clinical trials design
8.2.1 Clinical endpoints for obesity
8.2.2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria for obesity
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive assessment
11 Current and Future Players
11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-making trends
12 Market Outlook
12.1 Seven major markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key events
12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key events
12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
12.4 Japan
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key events
12.4.3 Drivers and barriers
13 Appendix
13.1 Bibliography
13.2 Abbreviations
13.3 Methodology
13.3.1 Forecast methodology
13.4 Primary research- KOLs interviewed for this report
13.4.1 KOLs
13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
13.6 About the authors
13.6.1 Analyst
13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
13.6.3 Epidemiologists
13.6.4 Reviewers
13.6.5 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiologists
13.6.6 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence
  • About the Analyst
  • Contact Us
List of Tables
Table 1: Obesity: Key metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Classifications of obesity as outlined by the WHO
Table 3: Classification systems for obesity based on BMI cutoff points
Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for overweight and obesity
Table 5: Treatment guidelines for obesity
Table 6: Top 10 deals by value, 2021-26
Table 7: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in the 7MM, 2025-35
Table 8: Key events impacting sales for obesity in the US, 2025-35
Table 9: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2025-35
Table 10: Key events impacting sales for obesity in the 5EU, 2025-35
Table 11: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2025-35
Table 12: Key events impacting sales for obesity in Japan, 2025-35
Table 13: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2025-35
Table 14: High-prescribing physicians surveyed, by country
List of Figures
Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for obesity in 2025 and 2035
Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in obesity during the forecast period
Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 4: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 5: Factors involved in the etiology of obesity
Figure 6: Pathophysiological manifestation of obesity
Figure 7: 7MM, total prevalence of overweight, men and women, %, =5 years, 2015-35
Figure 8: 7MM, total prevalence of obesity, men and women, %, =5 years, 2015-35
Figure 9: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
Figure 10: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
Figure 11: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by BMI class
Figure 12: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class
Figure 13: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of pediatric obesity by severity
Figure 14: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by comorbidity
Figure 15: 7MM, total prevalent cases of overweight, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 16: 7MM, total prevalent cases of obesity, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by age, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by sex, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by BMI class, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 22: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by age, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 23: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by sex, N, both sexes, age =5 years, 2025
Figure 24: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of pediatric obesity by severity, N, both sexes, ages 5-17, 2025
Figure 25: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class, N, both sexes, age =18 years, 2025
Figure 26: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by comorbidity, N, both sexes, age =18 years, 2025
Figure 27: BMI chart as a diagnostic technique for obesity
Figure 28: Treatment algorithm for obesity
Figure 29: Unmet needs and opportunities in obesity
Figure 30: Overview of the development pipeline in obesity
Figure 31: Key late-stage trials for the promising pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity in the 7MM during the forecast period
Figure 32: Competitive assessment of the recently approved agents and late-stage pipeline agents that the Analyst expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 33: Competitive assessment of the pipeline drugs benchmarked against standard of care
Figure 34: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in obesity during the forecast period
Figure 35: 7MM sales forecast by country for obesity in 2025 and 2035
Figure 36: 7MM sales forecast by drug for obesity in 2025 and 2035
Figure 37: Sales forecast by drug class for obesity in the US in 2025 and 2035
Figure 38: Sales forecast by drug for obesity in the 5EU in 2025 and 2035
Figure 39: Sales forecast by drug for obesity in Japan in 2025 and 2035

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

  • Alveus Therapeutics
  • Amgen
  • Ascletis Pharma
  • AstraZeneca
  • BioAge Labs
  • Biomed Industries
  • Boehringer Ingelheim
  • Carmot Therapeutics
  • CHEPLAPHARM
  • Currax Pharmaceuticals
  • Ecogene
  • Eli Lilly
  • H2-Pharma
  • Hansoh
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals
  • Kailera Therapeutics
  • Mitsubishi Tanabe
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Orexigen Therapeutics
  • Pfizer
  • Regeneron
  • Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
  • Roche
  • Sciwind Biosciences
  • Structure Therapeutics
  • Veru
  • Viking Therapeutics
  • Vivus
  • Zealand Pharma