North America Hydrogen Market Report - 2025
North America's position in the global low-carbon hydrogen market is weakening, with its share of global capacity projected to drop from 46% in 2025 to 28% by 2030. While the US now leads regionally, policy shifts under the Trump administration - halted IRA funding, stricter 45V rules, and new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and clean tech imports - are inflating costs and stalling green hydrogen growth. This is accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen. Canada’s momentum has slowed due to project delays, chiefly those of GHI, while Mexico remains a marginal player. Despite federal setbacks, state and provincial initiatives, particularly in California, New York, Alberta, and Quebec, continue to support hydrogen development. Transport remains the key end-use sector, with growing interest from heavy-duty vehicle and industrial applications.
Summary
North America is losing ground in the global low-carbon hydrogen race, with its projected share of global capacity set to drop from 46% in 2025 to just 28% by 2030. The region faces growing headwinds from policy shifts, most notably under Trump’s renewed administration, which is curbing green hydrogen momentum through halted funding, and high tariffs on imports. These changes are accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen and reinforcing regional disparities, as federal rollback contrasts with continued state and provincial support.North America's position in the global low-carbon hydrogen market is weakening, with its share of global capacity projected to drop from 46% in 2025 to 28% by 2030. While the US now leads regionally, policy shifts under the Trump administration - halted IRA funding, stricter 45V rules, and new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and clean tech imports - are inflating costs and stalling green hydrogen growth. This is accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen. Canada’s momentum has slowed due to project delays, chiefly those of GHI, while Mexico remains a marginal player. Despite federal setbacks, state and provincial initiatives, particularly in California, New York, Alberta, and Quebec, continue to support hydrogen development. Transport remains the key end-use sector, with growing interest from heavy-duty vehicle and industrial applications.
Key Highlights
- Although previously seen as a global leader in this sector, North America’s share of the global low-carbon hydrogen capacity is expected to decrease from 46% in 2025 to 28% in 2030.
- North America ranks third globally for low-carbon hydrogen capacity, following Europe and Africa, with the US holding the majority of North America's hydrogen capacity, accounting for 63% of the region’s total.
- Between 2024 and 2025 Canada lost its regional lead, due to the stalling and postponement of GHI projects. Whilst the US now ranks first in North America, and 76% of its pipeline capacity lies in post-feasibility stage projects, the overall outlook appears less optimistic, due to the current administration’s plan to increase fossil fuel production at the expense of renewable energy development.
- Mexico remains a slow mover within the region’s hydrogen market, with just 102ktpa of capacity across all of its active and upcoming projects.
Scope
- NA's low-carbon hydrogen capacity outlook, Key regional projects, Key companies operating in NA's hydrogen market, Hydrogen end-use sectors, Hydrogen policy in the US, Canada and Mexico, including Trump’s recent tariffs, Deal activity related to hydrogen in NS, Company filings analysis of NA headquartered companies
Reasons to Buy
- Identify the market trends within the region, particularly following the policy shift in the US caused by the Trump’s presidency.
- Identify key players in hydrogen technologies.
- Develop market insight of active and upcoming capacity.
- Analyze the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likelihood of projects' completion.
- Identify the demand in key application areas for both regions, with particular focus on transport, ammonia and methanol, iron and steel.
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Executive summary
- Snapshot of the low-carbon hydrogen market
- Low-Carbon Hydrogen Market
- North America in a global context
- North American low-carbon hydrogen capacity by country
- Largest upcoming projects globally
- Largest upcoming projects in North America
- Key players in the regional market
- North America hydrogen capacity in high and low-case scenarios
- Low-carbon hydrogen competitiveness drivers
- Major barriers for low-carbon hydrogen deployment
- Demand in Key Application Areas
- Intended use sectors for low-carbon hydrogen in North America
- Examples of hydrogen developments in North America across sectors
- Transportation
- Iron & steel
- Ammonia
- Hydrogen pipelines and gas blending projects
- Hydrogen sector challenges
- Tariffs, Policies, and Initiatives
- Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the hydrogen market
- US, Canada, and Mexico hydrogen policies and strategies
- US States’ and Canadian Provinces’ hydrogen initiatives
- Market Signals: Deals and Corporate Filings
- North American hydrogen deal activity
- North American companies’ corporate filings
- North American countries’ hydrogen targets, hydrogen type and industry focus
- North America’s largest active and upcoming H2 projects
- Opportunities and barriers for low-carbon hydrogen development
- Examples of hydrogen developments in North America across sectors
- Hydrogen demand in transportation
- Top 5 low-carbon hydrogen projects for iron and steel use
- Top 5 low-carbon hydrogen projects for ammonia supply
- Top 5 upcoming hydrogen pipelines in North America, by capital expenditure
- Top 5 upcoming gas blending projects in North America, by capacity
- Trump’s tariffs will impact low-carbon hydrogen development in North America
- Top 5 regions for active and upcoming capacity up to 2030
- Global vs North American low-carbon hydrogen capacity
- North American countries by low-carbon hydrogen capacity and development stage
- Top 20 companies' net capacity share in North American low-carbon hydrogen projects in 2030
- North America low-carbon hydrogen capacity scenario, 2025-2030
- North America target end-use sectors for low-carbon hydrogen
- Percentage of North American low-carbon hydrogen production by consumer industry
- North American maximum low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to the iron & steel sector, 2025-2030
- North American low-carbon ammonia production capacity, 2025-2030
- Top 10 North American headquartered companies by hydrogen mentions in corporate filings, 2022-2025YTD
- Top 5 North American headquartered companies by hydrogen mentions in corporate filings, 2022-2025YTD
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- BW Group Ltd
- Clean Hydrogen Works
- ExxonMobil Corp
- Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd
- TDL Partners Ltd
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc
- Bluestar Energy Capital LLC
- Bear Head Energy Inc
- Bakken Energy LLC
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
- Shell plc
- Atco Ltd
- Suncor Energy Inc
- Avina Clean Hydrogen Inc
- Nutrien Ltd
- TransGas Development
- HIF Global
- Newpoint Gas LLC
- ProtonH2
- MMEX Resources Corp
- World Energy GH2 Inc
- Canadian Natural Resources
- PlugPower
- Cummins
- Verdagy
- Ohmium
- Electric Hydrogen
- Porche
- Cleveland-Cliffs
- Fidelis Infrastructure LP
- H2V Energies Inc
- Tree Energy Solutions Gmbh
- Texas Hydrogen LLC
- Sempra
- Linde Inc
- Green Hydrogen International Corp
- TotalEnergies SE
- NextEra Energy Inc
- Brookfield Renewable Partners LP
- Enbridge Inc
- Electricite de France SA
- South Jersey Industries Inc
- Cummins Inc
- Ballard Power Systems Inc
- FuelCell Energy Inc
- Advent Technologies Holdings Inc
- Bloom Energy Corp
- Tidewater Renewables Ltf
- NewHydrogen Inc
- OPAL Fuels Inc
- Heliogen Inc
- The AES Corp.
