Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.

The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast.

The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.

Research Highlights

The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:

• Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
• High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)

Key Features

The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:

• Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
• Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
• Overall collisions expected during the period under study
• Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
• Total revenue potential from collision repairs

Key Issues Addressed

• What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles? What are the likely adoption rates and the macro impact on the automotive aftermarket?
• What are the vehicle sales and VIO scenarios for ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles?
• What are the potential areas of impact on the US aftermarket – parts, maintenance trends, and collision?
• How will the collision service market be impacted in terms of revenue growth or decline by the introduction of autonomous mobility?
• What are the potential legislations and regulations that can drive or restrain the adoption of autonomous technology?

Key Conclusion

The total number of  ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology. Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates. Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.