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South America Smart Grid : Market Forecast (2018 – 2027)

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  • 241 Pages
  • February 2018
  • Northeast Group, LLC
  • ID: 4473278

From 2018 to 2027, Investment in Total Smart Grid Infrastructure will Cumulatively Reach $20.1 billion

After years of slow progress, South America is finally showing signs of becoming one of the most attractive emerging market regions for smart grid investment. The region is comprised of countries with newly developed smart meter targets and associated regulations, as well as core business case indicators that point towards immediate benefits from smart grid infrastructure.

From 2018 to 2027, investment in total smart grid infrastructure will cumulatively reach $20.1 billion. This includes investment in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution automation (DA), wide area measurement (WAM), home energy management (HEM), information technology (IT) and battery storage.

Throughout South America, smart grid infrastructure is now viewed as a solution to many of the challenges the region is facing. Eight of the ten countries already have significant pilot projects in place, while half of the countries have developed some form of smart meter regulatory target.

In terms of deployments, Brazil is the regional leader despite significant project delays, with ongoing deployments in the hundreds of thousands of meters and larger projects expected. Economic challenges have delayed much of Brazil’s recent smart grid growth, but the economy is now rebounding and a proposed target of rollouts by 2032 appears achievable.

In the meantime, other South American countries have become more proactive. At the end of 2017, Chile, Colombia, and Uruguay all announced plans for rollouts and/or targets and smart grid investment plans have already been developed. Pilots continue to grow at utilities throughout South America and many utilities have plans that go above and beyond regulations.

The key driver of these initiatives is the unique near-term and long-term benefits South American countries will receive from smart grid infrastructure. Most notably, South American utilities will receive near-term savings from smart meter deployments by reducing non-technical losses. At nearly 15%, the regional transmission and distribution (T&D) loss rate is among the highest in the world. But there are also important long-term benefits to smart grid infrastructure such as managing rising middle class demand and increased use of distributed and renewable generation. Utilities can therefore make near-term deployments to help reduce non-technical losses, while laying the groundwork for long-term benefits.

In the past few years, these near-term drivers have not been sufficient, and investment has lagged. But with firm targets in place, growing economies, and declining smart grid infrastructure costs, South American utilities appear poised to finally begin significant deployments in the near-to-medium term. 

Key questions answered in this study: 

  • How large will the smart grid market be across South America?
  • Which South American countries are being driven by smart grid regulation? 
  • Which South American countries are investing in more advanced smart grid segments such as DA, WAM, IT, and battery storage?
  • What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the South American market? 


Table of Contents

1. What’s new in 2018?
2. South  America  smart  grid  snapshot
2.1  The  region  in  comparison
2.2  Regional  drivers
2.3 Regional challenges
3. Regional market forecast
4. Brazil
4.1 Electricity industry structure
4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
4.3 Market Forecast
4.4 Utility Activity
5. Chile
5.1 Electricity industry structure
5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
5.3 Market forecast
5.4 Utility activity
6. Colombia
6.1 Electricity industry structure
6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
6.3 Market forecast
6.4 Utility activity
7. Argentina
7.1 Electricity industry structure
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
7.3 Market forecast
7.4 Utility activity
8. Ecuador
8.1 Electricity industry structure
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
8.3 Market forecast
8.4 Utility activity
9. Peru
9.1 Electricity industry structure
9.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
9.3 Market forecast
9.4 Utility activity
10. Paraguay
10.1 Electricity industry structure
10.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
10.3 Market forecast
10.4 Utility activity
11. Uruguay
11.1 Electricity industry structure
11.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
11.3 Market forecast
11.4 Utility activity
12. Venezuela
12.1 Electricity industry structure
12.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
12.3 Market forecast
12.4 Utility activity
13. Bolivia
13.1 Electricity industry structure
13.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
13.3 Market forecast
13.4 Utility activity
14. Vendor activity
14.1 South America-based vendors
14.2 International vendors
15. Appendix
15.1 Methodology
15.2 Smart grid overview
15.3 Global smart grid activity
15.4 List of companies and acronyms
List of Figures, Boxes and Tables
South America smart grid: key takeaways
Figure 1.1: Recent smart grid activity in South America
Figure 1.2: Proposed and/or estimated large-scale AMI rollouts by country
Figure 1.3: AMI deployments and announcements at largest Brazilian parent utilities
Figure 1.4: AMI deployments and announcements at largest South American utilities
Table 1.1: South American utility AMI activity and plans
Figure 1.5: Additional smart grid applications in South America
Figure 1.6: Notable battery storage projects in South America
Table 1.2 Chinese meter vendor activity in South America
Figure 1.7: Global average AMI price per endpoint
Figure 1.8: Enel global presence
Figure 1.9: Distribution utility ownership changes in Brazil
Figure 1.10: Market share of leading AMI metering vendors in South America
Figure 1.11: Cumulative smart grid forecast comparison
Figure 1.12: Cumulative AMI units forecast comparison
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth
Figure 2.5: T&D losses in South America
Figure 2.6: Large-scale power plants in South America
Figure 2.7: Growth in per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.8: Renewable sources of energy in South America
Figure 2.9: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages
Table 2.2 Smart grid market drivers and barriers in South America
Figure 2.10: Ten-year price per kWh of AMI endpoints
Figure 2.11: Per-capita electricity consumption in South America
Figure 2.12: Percent hydro in generation mix
Figure 3.1: South America smart grid forecast
Table 3.1: South America smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.2: South America AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.3: Smart grid forecast by country
Table 3.2: Smart grid forecast data by country
Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in South America
Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Brazil key data
Figure 4.1: Brazil AMI penetration rate
Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Brazil
Figure 4.2: Distribution ownership changes in Brazil
Figure 4.3: Utility ownership in Brazil (%)
Figure 4.4: Electricity regulatory structure in Brazil
Box 4.1: Political risk in Brazil
Figure 4.5: Conventional and “white” tariffs
Table 4.3: Smart grid-related government action in Brazil
Figure 4.6: EV incentives in Brazil
Figure 4.7: Brazil smart grid forecast
Table 4.5: Brazil smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.8: Brazil AMI forecast
Table 4.6: Brazil AMI forecast data
Table 4.7: Brazilian utilities
Figure 4.9: AMI deployments at largest Brazilian utilities
Table 4.8: Smart grid vendor activity at ten leading utilities in Brazil
Table 4.9: Smart grid projects at Brazilian utilities
Table 4.10: Indicators for leading utility parent companies in Brazil
Figure 4.10: AMI vendor activity in Brazil
Figure 4.11: T&D losses at Brazilian utilities
Figure 4.12: “Smart city” projects in Brazil
Table 4.11: Light’s current non-technical loss reduction strategy
Table 4.12: Notable battery storage projects in Brazil
Table 5.1: Chile key data  87 Figure 5.1: Chile AMI penetration rate
Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Chile
Box 5.1: Political risk in Chile
Figure 5.2: Chile smart grid forecast
Table 5.3: Chile smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.3: Chile AMI forecast
Table 5.4: Chile AMI forecast data
Figure 5.4: Enel Chile capex growth investments
Table 6.1: Colombia key data
Figure 6.1: Colombia AMI penetration rate
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Colombia
Figure 6.2: ISA’s South American transmission assets
Table 6.3: Leading Colombian distribution utilities
Box 6.1: Political risk in Colombia
Box 6.2: Smart meter regulations adopted in January 2018
Figure 6.3: Colombia smart grid forecast
Table 6.4: Colombia smart grid forecast data
Figure 6.4: Colombia AMI forecast
Table 6.5: Colombia AMI forecast data
Table 6.6: Notable smart grid projects in Colombia
Table 7.1: Argentina key data
Figure 7.1: Argentina AMI penetration rate
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Argentina
Box 7.1: Political risk in Argentina
Figure 7.2: Argentina smart grid forecast
Table 7.3: Argentina smart grid forecast data
Figure 7.3: Argentina AMI forecast
Table 7.4: Argentina AMI forecast data
Figure 7.4: Electricity prices in South America
Table 7.5: Leading Argentine distribution utilities
Table 8.1: Ecuador key data
Figure 8.1: Ecuador AMI penetration rate
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Ecuador
Box 8.1: Political risk in Ecuador
Figure 8.2: Ecuador’s national smart grid plan
Figure 8.3: Ecuador smart grid forecast
Table 8.3: Ecuador smart grid forecast data
Figure 8.4: Ecuador AMI forecast
Table 8.4: Ecuador AMI forecast data
Figure 8.5: Distribution losses at Ecuadorean utilities
Table 8.5: Vendors already active in Ecuador
Table 9.1: Peru key data
Figure 9.1: Peru AMI penetration rate
Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Peru
Box 9.1: Political risk in Peru
Figure 9.2: Peru smart grid forecast
Table 9.3: Peru smart grid forecast data
Figure 9.3: Peru AMI forecast
Table 9.4: Peru AMI forecast data
Table 10.1: Paraguay key data
Figure 10.1: Paraguay AMI penetration rate
Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Paraguay
Box 10.1: Political risk in Paraguay
Figure 10.2: Highest global distribution losses
Figure 10.3: Paraguay smart grid forecast
Table 10.3: Paraguay smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.4: Paraguay AMI forecast
Table 10.4: Paraguay AMI forecast data
Table 11.1: Uruguay key data
Figure 11.1: Uruguay AMI penetration rate
Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Uruguay
Box 11.1: Political risk in Uruguay
Figure 11.2: Uruguay smart grid forecast
Table 11.3: Uruguay smart grid forecast data
Figure 11.3: Uruguay AMI forecast
Table 11.4: Uruguay AMI forecast data
Figure 11.4: UTE’s smart grid timeline
Table 12.1: Venezuela key data
Figure 12.1: Venezuela AMI penetration rate
Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Venezuela
Box 12.1: Political risk in Venezuela
Figure 12.2: Smart meter benefit indicators in South America
Figure 12.3: Venezuela smart grid forecast
Table 12.3: Venezuela smart grid forecast data
Figure 12.4: Venezuela AMI forecast
Table 12.4: Venezuela AMI forecast data
Table 13.1: Bolivia key data
Figure 13.1: Bolivia AMI penetration rate
Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Bolivia
Box 13.1: Political risk in Bolivia
Figure 13.2: Bolivia smart grid forecast
Table 13.3: Bolivia smart grid forecast data
Figure 13.3: Bolivia AMI forecast
Table 13.4: Bolivia AMI forecast data
Figure 14.1: Leading smart grid vendors in South America
Figure 14.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in South America
Table 14.1: Other smart grid vendors based in South America
Table 14.2: Chinese meter vendor activity in South America
Table 14.3: International telecom providers in South America
Figure 15.1: Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecast Model
Figure 15.2: Smart grid value chain
Figure 15.3: Smart grid model highlighting focus in South America
Table 15.1: Benefits of AMI in South America  231 Table 15.2: Demand response options
Figure 15.4: Global smart grid activity
Figure 15.5: Cumulative smart grid investment from 2018 – 2027 by region
Figure 15.6: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 15.3: Global smart grid drivers and activity