Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

Table of Contents

Part I: Setting the scene 1. Introduction: Why S2S? 2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon? 3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics 4. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approach

Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation 6. Extratropical sub-seasonal-to-seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections 8. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction 9. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction 10. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere

Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting 12. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity 13. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles 14. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation 15. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination 16. Forecast verification for S2S time scales

Part IV: S2S Applications 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes 18. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross 19. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities 20. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases 21. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts 22. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales 

Authors

Andrew Robertson Senior Research Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, USA. Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world. Frederic Vitart Senior Research Scientist, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK. Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.