Global Risk Report - Q1 2018
Summary
Synchronized upturn of developed nations, along with high growth of developing economies, firmed up the global economic activity in 2017. Higher export demand, strengthening of consumption expenditure and revival of investor’s confidence is anticipated to strengthen the world economic activity further over the next year. Inflationary pressure globally is expected to rise marginally in 2018 on the rebound in commodity prices.
Global risk score stood at 40.1, out of 100 in Q1 2018, unchanged from Q3 2017, following a reduction from 40.4 in Q2 2017. Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.
Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018. The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.
Whereas, the risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018.
Global Risk Report is based on the Country Risk Index (CRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, the author analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.
Scope
Reasons to buy
Summary
Synchronized upturn of developed nations, along with high growth of developing economies, firmed up the global economic activity in 2017. Higher export demand, strengthening of consumption expenditure and revival of investor’s confidence is anticipated to strengthen the world economic activity further over the next year. Inflationary pressure globally is expected to rise marginally in 2018 on the rebound in commodity prices.
Global risk score stood at 40.1, out of 100 in Q1 2018, unchanged from Q3 2017, following a reduction from 40.4 in Q2 2017. Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.
Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018. The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.
Whereas, the risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018.
Global Risk Report is based on the Country Risk Index (CRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, the author analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.
Scope
- Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.
- Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018 over the last update.
- The risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018
- The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.
Reasons to buy
- The fifth update version of the Country Risk Index (CRI) Q1 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Switzerland.
- 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q1 2018.
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents2 Flashback (January to June 2018)3 Key Events: July - December 20185 GCRI - Country Ranking6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018
4 Global Overview - Summary
7 Regional Analysis
8 Methodology and Appendix
List of Tables
List of Figures
