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The Impact of EVs and PHEVs on the European Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2025

  • Report

  • 87 Pages
  • October 2018
  • Region: Europe
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4659680

With EV/PHEVs Expected to Account for 3.6% of the Total VIO by 2025, the Automotive Aftermarket Could Suffer a Service Revenue Loss of €0.5 Billion

This study focuses on the ramifications for the European aftermarket because of EVs and PHEVs in the vehicle parc. Analysis is done on how replacement parts demand and aftermarket revenue will be altered due to EVs and PHEVs. The geographic scope of the study is Europe and the base year is 2017.

The deliverable explains the impact of the latest service offerings and technological advancements of OEMs like outdoor charging and battery ownership to improve the ownership experience. It sheds light on the changing focus of parts suppliers in the age of EVs/PHEVs and investments in R&D to adapt to this development. At the same time, it also highlights emerging participants in the IAM channel who have created products like battery diagnostics and charging, particularly for the EV market. Another key focus of this study is to give a detailed account of the competencies of IAM service technicians and their skill requirements in the future to prevent losing out to the OES channel.

The goal of the study is to forecast the possible revenue changes to the aftermarket due to multiple parts missing from EVs. Focus is on ignition and exhaust parts which are the most impacted. The study provides details on EV fleet procurement and charging infrastructure development initiatives by city councils and transportation departments in multiple European cities and how they affect service volume.

Research Highlights

The objective of this study is to research, analyze and predict the effect of EVs/PHEVs on parts and services in the European automotive aftermarket. It also seeks to:

  • Understand the key demand drivers of policies, tax rebates, technology developments, charging infrastructure and consumer demand for the adoption of EVs in Europe.
  • Understand the maintenance schedule of EVs and how it impacts the total cost of ownership and compare it with ICVs. It also details service packages of multiple OEMs.
  • Highlight market leaders and first movers in the EV ecosystem and analyze parts and service trends and revenues in the era of EVs/PHEVs.
  • Understand and compare training programs introduced by aftermarket leaders and OEMs to create a large talent pool for EV technicians capable of handling high-voltage equipment and well versed in data interpretation. The study also talks about how the demand for service technicians will change in the years to come and how remuneration will increase for specialists.
  • Understand the impact of EVs and PHEVs on vehicle servicing by analyzing service volumes, service types, service personnel and service technology. It also aims to understand who would benefit the most from EVs/PHEVs - the OES or the IAM channel.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
  • Parts Overview and Expected Trend - Comparison between EV and ICV
  • Replacement Parts Demand and Revenue Outlook - 2025
  • Replacement Comparison EV vs. ICV - 100,000 Miles Driven

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Methodology

3. Definitions and Segmentation
  • Market Definitions
  • Vehicle Segmentation

4. Demand Enablers
  • Trends in EV/PHEV Production and Sales
  • Legislations Promoting EVs/PHEVs
  • Incentives for EVs/PHEVs
  • Technology - Recent and Current Improvements
  • Technology - Future Battery Improvements
  • Europe EV Charging Infrastructure
  • Consumer Perception
  • Emerging Business Models in the EV/PHEV Ecosystem

5. EV/PHEV Demand Base
  • EV VIO/New Vehicle Sales - Europe
  • EV Age - wise VIO Split - Europe
  • PHEV VIO/New Vehicle Sales - Europe
  • PHEV VIO Age - wise Split - Europe
  • EV/PHEV VIO as a Percentage of the Total

6. Impact Of EV/PHEVs on Replacement Part & Service Demand
  • Key Findings - Part Replacement Demand
  • Supplier Contribution and Vehicle Composition - Comparison between EV and ICV
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Brake Pads Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Starters Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Spark Plugs Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Fuel Pumps Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Oil Changes
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Mufflers Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Tires Replacement
  • Aftermarket Revenue Impact - Cabin Air Filters Replacement
  • Battery Replacement Opportunity (Nissan Leaf)
  • Battery Replacement Opportunity (Renault Zoe)
  • Battery Replacement Opportunity (Tesla Model S)

7. EV/PHEV Business Structure
  • EV/PHEVs - Channel Participant Outlook
  • Service Revenue Impact from EV Fleet Procurement
  • OEM EV/PHEV Aftermarket Plans and Services
  • OEM Strategies
  • EV Services Features of European Leader BMW
  • Adaptation of Parts Manufacturers to EV/PHEVs

8. Impact of EV/PHEVs on the Service Ecosystem
  • Impact on Parts Retailers
  • Service Personnel
  • Suppliers focusing on Aftermarket Training
  • IAM Service - Emerging Participants

9. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity - Connecting End Users through New Business Models and Faster Delivery
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

10. Conclusions
  • EV/PHEV Aftermarket - Current and Future Trends
  • Opportunities for the OES and IAM Channels arising from EV/PHEVs
  • EV Aftermarket - Future Possibilities
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

11. Appendix A - Vehicle Maintenance Comparison of Key EV/PHEV Models
  • Halfords UK Service Offerings
  • Tesla Models UK Maintenance Plans
  • Model S and Model X
  • Renault Periodic Maintenance Service

12. Appendix B - EV/PHEV Fleet Ownership Overview
  • Factors Influencing Transition of Fleets to Evs
  • Corporate Fleet Usage - High Aftermarket Potential
  • Abbreviations
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

  • Halfords
  • Nissan
  • Renault
  • Tesla