International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
- Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior
- Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems
- Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
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1. Introduction 2. Building a Global Model: The Toolkit 3. The Evolution of Global Modeling 4. Introducing International Futures 5. The Future of Human Development 6. The Future of Socioeconomic Development 7. The Future of Sustainable Development 8. Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty 9. Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System