Global Risk Report - Quarterly Update - Q3 2023

The twenty-second update version of the Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q3 2023 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Denmark and Singapore. 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 22 countries in the low-risk zone, 51 countries under manageable risk, 30 countries under high risk and 20 countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q3 2023.

Global Risk Report is based on the Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, The analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

• Global risk: The Country Risk Index (GCRI) for Q3 2023 exhibits a decrease in risk score, declining from 44.9 in Q3 2022 to 44.3 out of 100. This decline is attributed to positive factors like easing inflationary pressures and a gradually improving labor market, contributing to enhanced consumer confidence. However, challenges persist, including geopolitical tensions, reduced external demand, elevated borrowing cost, and economic turmoil in China.
• Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific now has the second-lowest risk score in the world, down from 42 in Q3 2022 to 41.8 in Q3 2023. The Asia-Pacific region's emerging and developing economies have grown rapidly lately, helped by factors like increased domestic activity, rising investments, and a rebound in tourism. Several emerging Asian economies, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, are still experiencing rapid growth driven by positive trends in investment and consumption, even as China's economic recovery is slowing down. Though circumstances differ amongst countries, this points to a promising future for the Asia-Pacific region.
• Americas: The risk score for the Americas region decreased from 47.7 in Q3 2022 to 45.8 in Q3 2023. The decline was attributed to factors such as alleviated inflationary pressures, a halt or reduction in the policy rate, a decrease in the unemployment rate, and an increase in consumer spending. Despite this reduction, the Americas retained its second-highest global risk ranking, with the Middle East and Africa being the only region ranked higher. This positioning was primarily influenced by vulnerabilities identified in Latin American countries.
• Europe: Europe remains the world's least risky region, with a reduced risk score of 32.7 in Q3 2023, compared to 33.4 in Q3 2022. After successfully overcoming challenges posed by pandemic and energy price shocks, Europe faces the complex task of reinstating price stability while nurturing strong and environmentally sustainable long-term growth. The growth forecast is shaped by the interplay of tightened macroeconomic policies and a resurgence in real incomes, propelled by decreasing inflation and rising wages.
• Middle East and Africa: Recording a risk score of 53.5 in Q3 2023, the Middle East and Africa persist as the region with the highest risk level. Economic growth in major oil-producing nations is hampered by decline in oil production. The region's risk profile is further heightened by geopolitical instability arising from ongoing conflicts. Compounding the challenges is a deteriorating humanitarian crisis in the area.

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