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Lebanese Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

  • ID: 4871290
  • Report
  • November 2019
  • Region: Lebanon
  • 60 pages
  • GlobalData
1h Free Analyst Time

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FEATURED COMPANIES

Lebanese Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

Lebanon’s defense and security expenditure is expected to register a CAGR of 5.69% over the forecast period to reach US$3.6 billion in 2024. Lebanon’s military and security expenditure is valued at US$2.7 billion in 2019, registering at CAGR of 5.08% during 2015-2019, and the country is anticipated to record a CAGR of 5.69% over the forecast period to value US$3.6 billion in 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense and security expenditure averaged 4.7% over the historic period and is expected to remain the same at an average of 4.7% over the forecast period.

The country faces sectarian violence, threats of militancy, homegrown extremism and unrest at refugee camps. The Syrian civil war and the Israeli-Lebanon conflict have resulted in a large number of refugees’ crossing the border into Lebanon, which has burdened the Lebanese economy, led to sectarian violence, and complicated its internal security. Lebanon is rife with sectarian violence and is also heavily impacted by the problem of drug trafficking, hence there is a need to protect the country against communal violence and narcotics smuggling. The modernization of the police force and developing domestic infrastructure are the primary areas that the country is expected to invest in over the forecast period.

The country’s capital expenditure allocation stood at an average of 33% during the historic period and is expected to decrease to 32.5% over the forecast period. Lebanon is not endowed with oil reserves and lacks the economic ability to invest in expansive defense capabilities, unlike its neighboring Middle Eastern countries.

Missiles, aircraft and armored vehicles cumulatively accounted for 81.4% of imports during 2014-2018, with the US being the biggest supplier with 76.9%. Other significant import partners include Brazil, Canada, France, Italy, Jordan and the UAE. The country’s small defense budget and lack of military manufacturing capability forces the Lebanese armed, naval and air forces to rely on imports. The country is not expected to export any arms to foreign countries, as Lebanese domestic defense is under-developed.

The Lebanese government does not allow foreign direct investment in its military and security sector. The country’s small defense capital expenditure does not equip it with the bargaining power to impose offsets on procurement deals. Participating in government-to-government deals is the preferred route for foreign defense manufacturers and equipment suppliers to enter the Lebanese defense market.

The report “Lebanese Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024” offers detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
  • The Lebanese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Lebanese defense industry
Companies Mentioned: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc., MBDA

Scope
  • Plagued by sectarian violence, the country faces increasing threats of militancy, homegrown extremism, and unrest in refugee camps. In addition, the Syrian civil war has resulted in a large number of refugees’ crossing over to Lebanon to live in camps. As a consequence, these refugee camps have increased the burden on the Lebanese economy by fuelling sectarian violence in the country and complicating its internal security. Lebanon’s military expenditure, which is valued at US$2.7 billion in 2019, registered a CAGR of 5.08% during 2015-2019.
  • Moreover, the country is anticipated to record a CAGR of 5.69% over the forecast period to value US$3.6 billion in 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense and security expenditure is estimated to average 4.7% and is the same over the historic period and forecast period.
Reasons to buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Lebanese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About the Author

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Conditions
3.1.1. Procurement Programs
3.1.2. Key Drivers and Challenges
3.2. Defense and Security Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Lebanese defense and security expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.69% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Cross border violence expected to be a key factor driving defense expenditure
3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to remain the same, on average, over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation to average 32.5% of the total budget over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 5.67% over the forecast period
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Sectarian violence and drug trafficking will be the key factors driving homeland security
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Lebanon to remain low down on the top defense spenders list
3.5.2. The country’s defense budget is low compared to other leading spenders
3.5.3. Lebanon’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to average 4.7% over the forecast period
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2019-2024

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries
4.1.2. The US is Lebanon’s key defense supplier
4.1.3. Missiles, aircraft and armored vehicles dominated Lebanese defense imports during the historic period
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Lebanon’s defense export market is negligible

5. Market Entry Strategy
5.1. Market Regulation
5.1.1. The Lebanese government prohibits FDI in the defense industry
5.1.2. Lebanon has not disclosed any offset obligations
5.2. Market Entry Route
5.2.1. Government-to-government deals are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
6.1.1. The Lebanese defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors

7. Business Environment and Country Risk
7.1. Economic Performance
7.1.1. GDP Per Capita
7.1.2. Gross Domestic Product
7.1.3. Gross National Disposal Income (US$ Billion)
7.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services
7.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services
7.1.6. LCU per US$ (Period Average)
7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.12. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.13. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
7.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

8. Appendix
8.1. About the Author
8.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Lebanon - Ongoing Procurement Programs
Table 2: Lebanon - Future Procurement Programs
Table 3: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 4: Lebanon - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
Table 5: Lebanon - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Table 9: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion and US$ Million), 2015-2024
Table 7: Lebanon - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Table 8: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Table 9: Top Lebanese Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2019-2024
Table 10: Lebanon - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018

List of Figures
Figure 1: Lebanese Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
Figure 2: Lebanese Defense Imports/Exports: 2014 and 2018
Figure 3: Lebanon’s Top Three Prospective Procurements/Developments
Figure 4: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2015-2024
Figure 5: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 6: Lebanon - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
Figure 7: Lebanon - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Figure 8: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2015-2024
Figure 9: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2015-2024
Figure 10: Lebanon - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Figure 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Figure 12: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
Figure 13: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as a Percentage of GDP, 2019
Figure 14: Lebanese Defense Import Trend, 2014-2018
Figure 15: Lebanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2014-2018
Figure 16: Lebanese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2014-2018
Figure 17: Lebanese GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 18: Lebanese GDP (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 19: Lebanese Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 20: Lebanese Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 21: Lebanese Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 22: Lebanese LCU per US$, 2016-2025
Figure 23: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 24: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 25: Lebanese Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 26: Lebanese Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 27: Lebanese Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 28: Lebanese Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 29: Lebanese Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 30: Lebanese Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 31: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 32: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.
  • MBDA
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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