Mortgage lending accelerated in 2019. Sales of new contracts surged to over PLN 62 billion (EUR 14+ billion). Looking forward, in a base scenario, the publisher expects new mortgage lending to cool-off slightly in 2020 but then to resume the solid growth in 2021 and 2022.
Mortgage lending in Poland 2020-2022 is the latest edition of the regular research paper. The report builds on the success of the 2019 issue and provides an updated view of emerging trends in the Polish mortgage lending market.
Similarly to the previous version our analysis covers a wide range of perspectives including: Market size, competitive structure, market shares, and margins. A mid-term market forecast of mortgage outstanding value through 2022 has been also included.
Research findings have been presented in a structured and logical way in the form of a horizontal presentation on 30 slides.
1. Executive Summary
2. Residential real estate stock & prices
- Slide 1: New dwellings completed, starts, permits, 2014-2019
- Slide 2: New dwellings completed by regions, 2019
- Slide 3: Residential real estate prices in key cities, 2013-2019 Q3
3. Mortgage lending
- Slide 4: Total outstanding lending to households by type of loan, 2014-2019
- Slide 5: Mortgage loans to households outstanding, local vs. foreign currency, 2014-2019
- Slide 6: Number of new mortgage loans, the value of new loans, average new loan size, 2014-2019
- Slide 7: New sales of mortgage loans to individuals monthly/annual averages: 2015-2019
- Slide 8: Distribution of new mortgage lending by top cities, 2019 Q3
- Slide 9: Mortgage lending penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2019 Q3
- Slide 10: Mortgage lending in Poland vs. Europe- market size vs. growth, 2017 Q3-2019 Q3
- Slide 11: New mortgage loans by size and LTV, 2015 Q1 - 2019 Q3
- Slide 12: New mortgage loans by currency, 2015 Q1 - 2019 Q3
- Slide 13: Top banks by outstanding mortgage loans (market share>5%), 2017Q3, 2018 Q3, 2019 Q3
- Slide 14: The role of financial intermediaries in mortgage loans distribution, 2014-2018
- Slide 15: Reference rates: WIBOR3M & LIBOR CHF 6M, 2012-2019
- Slide 16: Average lending margins evolution – PLN loans, 2012-2019
4. Regulatory issues, risk
- Slide 17: The evolution of mortgage loan NPLs, 2013 Q1 - 2019 Q3
- Slide 18: Regulatory environment with regards to mortgage loans
- Slide 19: CHF/PLN exchange rate, 2005-2019, CHF-denominated loans outstanding
- Slide 20: Mortgage loans – outstanding value forecast (PLN, FX loans), GDP penetration, 2020-2022
6. Methodological notes