Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast - March 2020

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast - March 2020

Summary

The report covers current epidemiology situation, forecast, and analysis of COVID-19 in March 2020, including forecast for key markets.The report will be updated on a monthly basis.

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 180 countries worldwide. China had appeared to gain control of COVID-19. The US is now the most heavily affected country worldwide. Forecasts expect further rise in cases from the US and other countries across Europe. Italy and Switzerland may begin to see flattening of the epidemiological curve.

People at risk for severe COVID-19 include population with underlying health problems, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and some rare diseases. Populations aged 50 years of age and older are also more likely to have comorbidities and develop severe COVID-19, requiring hospitalization. There is no solid evidence to suggest that pregnant women are more at risk of COVID-19, but they are included in this category as a precaution.

The global CFR is 4.3%. In the 5MM, the highest case fatality rate occurs among the 80 years and older age group. In the 5MM (except Spain), the highest proportion of deaths occurs among the 80 years and older age group.

The epidemiology analysis is limited by several data restrictions. Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries. All countries’ reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people. And mortality reporting is not standardized.

Scope

• The epidemiology report covers four areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, populations at risk, case fatality rate, and data limitations.
• The forecast include three-scenario analysis of global confirmed case count, in-depth analysis of top four markets with confirmed cases, and a peak-week and return-to-normal week analysis for the top four markets.
• The populations at risk area focuses on 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and South Korea) and provides size of the populations that have COPD, heart disease, diabetes, and select rare diseases.
• The case fatality rate area provides comparison in case fatality and proprotion of deaths by age in four major markets (China, South Korea, US, and Italy). Data limitations provide readers with in-depth understanding of the caveats surronding the COVID-19 data.

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19.