The global economy is facing what is likely to be the worst economic disruption since World War II. As the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spreads globally, the concurrent economic fallout of this health crisis is expected to be grave. The publisher has analyzed the scale of impact on global GDP growth and other macroeconomic elements through scenario-based modelling, factoring in the constantly evolving elements of this crisis. The economic impact and recovery outlook is based on two probable scenarios--the Severe Pandemic Scenario and the Global Emergency Scenario.
The research also draws a clear parallel with a baseline scenario of COVID-19 non-occurrence and also against the 2009 financial crisis; thereby, helping to understand the divergence from baseline growth expectations and the expected time period to reach pre-crisis GDP levels.
The research offers insights into the implications of the pandemic on key macroeconomic indicators such as trade values, unemployment, inflation, and oil prices. The pressure on oil prices partially comes from a substantial reduction of global oil demand due to travel restrictions, both via road and air. Although the OPEC+’s production cut decision should bring some respite to tumbling prices, it is insufficient to prevent a sharp price slide in H1 2020. Trade, in 2020, is expected to contract sharply because of protracted supply chain disruptions and demand constraints, compelling businesses to reorient supply chains and production processes. The global unemployment rate is expected to overshoot the levels seen in 2009, with the most severe impact expected across sectors such as food and beverage, accommodation, and manufacturing.
Globally, governments have rolled out unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus packages to stem the economic decline and provide a boost to the economy, with the US gearing up for the highest levels of financial support for hard-hit sectors and citizens. Similar interventions from the European Union and some Asian economies have created opportunities for businesses to leverage these provisions to cushion the expected financial blow. Similarly, the loose monetary policy, evident through record low-interest rates and other factors, should help businesses avail of the low-cost credit.
The research also provides perspective on recovery expectations, their implications, and regional differences depending on the severity of the outbreak and the range of government responses. Under the Severe Pandemic Scenario, emerging markets are expected to be more resilient, with quicker recovery compared to the developed markets.
The research also examines growth opportunity levers for business, while shedding light on key economic and business strategy expectations during the recovery period.