Strategic Intelligence: Tariffs and Trade Wars Executive Briefing (First Edition)

Less than 100 days since his return to office, Donald Trump has blown up eight decades of global trade rules with the imposition of a 10% global baseline and "reciprocal" tariff framework, plus sizeable tariffs on strategic sectors (e.g., steel, aluminum, and automotive). As in Trump’s first term, this has led to the inevitable escalatory ratchet between the US and China (plus targeted retaliation from other select trading partners) ahead of much-awaited new dealmaking. Keen US interest in shutting backdoors to Chinese triangulation of imports will further disrupt global supply chains, with surging risks of US stagflation and global recession if Trump overplays his hand.

Key Highlights

• The motives and agendas underlying Trump’s key policies are tangled and contradictory. This points to high levels of uncertainty-a feature rather than a bug, which Trump likes to weaponize for tactical advantage. The outlook is further clouded by questions over which countries will follow China in imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and the timelines for potential trade negotiations with the US that could see tariffs reduced. The prospective benefits of tariffs will come only slowly (as will Trump’s promised tax cuts and deregulation).
• Concerns over a potential US recession in 2025 are growing as investors reassess the economic impact of its tariff policies. Despite the 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the near- and longer-term outlook is dogged by tariff uncertainty, complicating investment and management decisions. The greatest risk is that ongoing market volatility triggers reflexivity, sending corporate and consumer confidence plummeting, with indications that this is already happening. A silver lining is the potential strengthening of regional and inter-regional trade ties outside the US.

Scope

• This report outlines the impact of tariffs on the global economy and key industries.
• It includes analysis of the macroeconomic implications and outlines how this theme could play out over the coming weeks and months.
• Detailed insights are provided into the impact of tariffs in 15 sectors: aerospace, defense, and security, agribusiness, automotive, construction, consumer, financial services, medical devices, mining, oil and gas, pharma, power, retail, sport, technology, and travel and tourism.
• The report also includes our sector scorecards, which have been updated as appropriate to capture the impact of the emerging trade war.

Reasons to Buy

• All sectors are impacted by higher tariffs and the prospect of a global trade war, whether directly (such as by Trump’s baseline global 10% tariff) or indirectly by the impact on the wider economy.
• Understand the impact on your business with the analyst's executive briefing, which includes analysis from our industry analysts and macroeconomic experts.