Brexit, Trump, COVID-19…What’s next for political risk?
There has never been a more volatile and uncertain time in recent history. As COVID-19 has reminded us, the interconnectedness of the global economy has made political risk analysis vastly more complex. Quant-driven methods have become increasingly ubiquitous, but what does the future hold for the practice in the face of new and emerging challenges?
In Quid Periculum? Measuring & Managing Political Risk in the Age of Uncertainty, long-time political risk experts Christopher McKee and Peter Marber present proven and pragmatic approaches to understanding our brave new world - from forecasting techniques and reliability measures, to empirical findings affecting asset prices - from some of the field’s cutting edge thought leaders. With an academician’s eye and a practitioner’s mindset, Quid Periculum is the 6th in a series of handbooks on political risk published by the analyst. Truly a unique blend of scholarly and applied efforts, and a distinctive contribution to the field’s expanding literature.
Early Praise for McKee and Marber:
“[McKee’s PRS Group is the world’s] leading investment risk company.”
- Jim Rogers, bestselling author of Adventure Capitalist and Investment Biker
“If you want to understand globalization’s future, as well as some of the reasons we got into our current financial mess, reading Marber’s Seeing the Elephant is a great place to start.”
- Craig Karmin, Wall Street Journal
“[Peter Marber’s] Money Changes Everything is an outstanding primer on the awesome social effects of globalization.”
- David Brooks, New York Times
Table of Contents
Introduction
Part I - Approaching 21st Century Political Risks
Chapter 1. Country and Political Risk Analyses: “What Are They?”
Llewellyn D. Howell
Chapter 2. The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Barbara A. Mellers,
Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Zeckhauser
Chapter 3. Fitch Sovereign Ratings Methodology
Fitch Ratings, Ltd.
Chapter 4. Do Credit Rating Agencies Get It Right Or Wrong?
H. David Spegel
Chapter 5. Resolving Sovereign Debt Crises: The Role of Political Risk
Christoph Trebesch
Chapter 6. International Business Risk: Political Sources, Framework and COVID-19 Case Study
Jay van Wyk
Chapter 7. Rethinking Political Risk Analysis in Developed Economies
Julian M. Campisi
Part II - Political Risk and Investments: Scholar and Practitioner Perspectives
Chapter 8. Roundtable Discussion on Political Risk
Michel-Henry Bouchet, Parag Khanna, Peter Kraus, Price Lowenstein, and Ted Merz
Chapter 9. Dynamics of Political Risk Rating and Stock Market Volatility
Muhammad Tahir Suleman and John Randal
Chapter 10. The Political Risk Factor in Global Asset Prices
Nebojsa Dimic, Vitaly Orlov, and Vanja Piljak
Chapter 11. Foreign Direct Investment in High-Risk Environments: An Historical Perspective
Mark Casson and Teresa da Silva Lopes
Chapter 12. Political Risk Spreads
Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian T. Lundblad, and Stephan Siegel2
Chapter 13. Political Risk Insurance: A New Firm-level Data Set
Vincent Arel-Bundock, Clint Peinhardt, and Amy Pond
Part III - Knowns, Unknowns, and the Age of Uncertainty
Chapter 14. Managing Political Risk with Gold?
Shaokai Fan
Chapter 15. Global Political Risks in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Daniel Araya
Chapter 16. A New Chinese World Order?
Richard Harrell
Chapter 17. Terrorism and Risk: Perception, Reality, and the Importance of Data
Hannah Ritchie, Joe Hasell, Cameron Appel, and Max Roser.
Chapter 18. Globalization, Information, and the Evolution of Political Risk
Peter Marber
Chapter 19. From Discourse to Data: A Personal Account of the Political Risk Business Over the Last 25 Years
Christopher McKee
Appendix
About the Authors
Author
Christopher McKee is an international political economist, global investor, entrepreneur, author, publisher, and CEO and Owner of The PRS Group, the world’s leading quant-driven political and country risk rating and forecasting firm. Since 2006, he has led the internationally acclaimed International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). A former faculty member at the University of British Columbia and recognized internationally as an authority in political risk assessment, Chris has addressed client groups from the GE to the G20, from Cairo to Riyadh.
Peter Marber is an award-winning money manager, writer, and teacher specializing in globalization, human capital and emerging markets. Since 1987, Marber has invested billions of dollars for many of the world’s largest corporations and financial groups. A faculty member at Harvard and Johns Hopkins, he has authored more than 100 articles and columns on international finance and published six books.
