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United States Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2022-2023

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  • 258 Pages
  • November 2021
  • Region: United States
  • SIMBA Information
  • ID: 5440429

PreK-12 Instructional Materials Industry Makes Post-COVID-19 Gains, Projected to Grow to $10 Billion in 2022

United States Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2022-2023 addresses the opportunities in the PreK-12 school market and the strategies at work in the industry that provide instructional materials to schools.

The analyst defines the major segments of the instructional materials industry into key categories: core basal curriculum, courseware, state-level tests, digital supplements, print supplements, manipulatives, trade books, video, and classroom magazines, and sizes the individual segments and the overall instructional materials industry, which the analyst estimates generated $9.3 billion in sales in 2021, up 7.8% from an estimated $8.7 billion in 2020.

The seven-chapter analysis in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2022-2023 focuses on market trends and the size and structure of the industry. Broad market conditions examined in the first chapters include:

  • enrollment trends and projections, broken down by type of school and an examination of the rise of virtual schooling
  • federal and state funding and support for PreK-12 Education, including ESSER funds, factors related to the availability of funds, Title I’s 50 largest allocations, trends winning support, and state budget proposals
  • state text adoption calendars
  • industry revenues rising from post COVID-19 lockdowns

The second half of the report explores the size and structure of the K-12 instructional materials industry, including:

  • current sales and projections by industry segments
  • growth in digital teaching, tools, and materials
  • revised state testing plans and pilots
  • operating performance and stock performance of selected public companies
  • listing and analysis of industry M&A activity for 2021 and first half of 2022

The report offers an outlook based on market trends, including:

  • Current COVID-19 mandates and changes
  • digital continuing its ongoing growth
  • curriculum outlook for Science, Social and Emotional Learning (SEL), and Supplemental Material
  • teacher shortages, book challenges, increased use of OER, broader economic forces, and other cautions and hurdles facing market players

Profiles of the following key companies provide a look at their strategies, financials, and activities: Cambium Learning, Cengage, Discovery Education, Goodheart-Willcox, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Kahoot!, McGraw Hill, Pearson, Renaissance Learning, Savvas Learning, Scholastic, and Stride.

Publishers and investment professionals can trust the Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2022-2023 to provide the inside intelligence, market size and trends needed to evaluate growth potential and understand online services trends affecting market for instructional materials for the PreK-12 market.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2022-2023 is an essential tool for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving this dynamic industry.

The analyst has the knowledge base and perspective gained from more than 20 years’ covering this market and the rapid changes in technology, the economy, mergers, partnerships and public policy that affect it.

Table of Contents

  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Enrollment
    • Back to School: Is the Enrollment Rate Recovering?
    • COVID-19-Associated Disenrollment Reversed
    • Disenrollment is Higher in Preschool and Kindergarten
      • Table Enrollment Rate by Grade, 2020-2021
    • California Continues to Illustrate Pandemic Trends
    • Where Students Went and Departure Impact
    • Fiscal Consequences of Disenrollment
    • Public Schools: Numbers & Students
    • Public School Enrollment Growth Slows
      • Table Trends in Public School Enrollment, 2000-2030P (in millions)
      • Table Enrollment Trends in Elementary, Secondary, and Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions, 2000-2019 (in millions)
    • Varying Enrollment Patterns Across the States
      • Table Projected Percentage Change in Public Elementary & Secondary Enrollment, 2020-2030
    • Birth Rates to Impact Future Enrollment
    • Private School Enrollment: Decline in Catholic Schools' Enrollment
      • Private Schools in Demand Despite High Cost-an Opportunity
      • Catholic School Enrollment Witnesses an Increasing Trend
      • Table Percent Change in Catholic School Enrollment, 2016-2021
    • Support for School Choice Continues to Grow
      • Increasing Interest in Charter Schools
      • Table Charter School Trends, 2000-2020
      • Table Charter Schools by State, 2019-2020
    • Characteristics of Charter Schools
    • Pandemic-Led Homeschooling Surge Continues
    • Table Homeschooling Trends, 2003-2019
    • Virtual Schools' Future Still Bright
    • Graduation Rates Inch Up
    • Table Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates for Public High School Students, 2018-2019
    • Dual Enrollment Offers Opportunities
    • The Decline for Students in Poverty
    • Table Title I Schools by State, 2020-2021
    • Enrollment Trend for Students' Experiencing Homelessness
    • ELL Population Continues to Grow
      • Table Trends in English-Language Learner Enrollment, 2000-2001 to 2019-2020
      • Table Percentage of Public-School Students Who Are ELL by State, 2019-2020
    • Services Support Special Needs Students
      • Table Trends in Youth Receiving IDEA Services, 2017-2018 to 2020-2021
    • Universal PreK Progress Slow and Uneven
      • Table Enrollment Growth in State-Funded Preschool Programs, 2017-2018 to 2020-2021
      • Table Enrollment & Per-Child Spending in State-Funded Preschool, 2020-2021
    • Pandemic Impacts PreK
      • Table Pandemic impact on Enrollment, Pre-Pandemic to Fall of 2021
    • Expat Influence on Enrollment, Diversity in School
      • Table Leading Countries of Origin Ranking by Number of Immigrant Students, Fall of 2020
    • More Students are Online and Connected
      • Table 3-18-Year-Old Children with Home Internet Access, 2016-2019
  • Budget & Policy
    • Introduction
    • Policy & Funding History
    • Policy & Funding in the ESSA Era
    • Federal, State & Local Funding Sources
    • Reopening Schools: A New Policy Area
    • Schools Focus on Social Emotional Learning
      • Table The seven key challenges that school and programs face in implementing SEL programs
      • SEL's Academic Benefits
    • Federal Funding Continues to Rise
    • Biden Proposed Ed Funding Increases for FY 2022
      • Table Education Department Appropriations, FY 2019-FY 2023 (selected K-12, $ in millions)
    • Title I and Disadvantaged Populations
      • Increased Support for Community Schools Program
      • New Programs, New Budget Lines Proposed
    • Stimulus Bills Provide Education Money
    • Pandemic Leads to CARES Act
    • Rethink K-12 Part of CARES Act
      • Table Selected Approved Rethink K-12 Education State Plan Highlights, 2020
    • American Rescue Plan Provides Another Wave of K-12 Funding
      • Table COVID-19 Relief Education Funding March 2020-March 2022 ($ in billions)
      • Table American Rescue Plan ESSER Fund Allocation
    • Title I's 50 Largest Allocations
      • Table 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY 2019 ($ in thousands)
    • Promoting the Switch to Digital
    • Trends Winning Federal & State Support
    • Computer Science Moving from Elective to Requirement
    • High Schools Teaching Computer Science
      • Table States that Require High Schools to Offer Computer Science Education
      • Student Data Privacy and Security
      • Career and Technical Education Booms
    • State Education Funding Overview
    • Adoption States Influence Market & Offer Opportunities
      • Table State Adoption Schedule 2022-2025
  • Fiscal 2022 Budgets Approved
    • Table Top 10 Public Educational Spending from Highest to Lowest Total Average Spent Per Pupil, 2021-2022
  • State Budget Proposals Including ARP ESSER Funds
    • Florida
    • Vermont
    • Mississippi
    • ARP ESSER K-12 Funding Themes
    • Table K-12 Funding Allocations FY 2022 for NY, CA, FL, IL, PA, GA, MI, TX
  • Market Size and Structure
    • Industry Revenues Recover from COVID-19 and Lockdowns
    • What the Numbers Tell Us
    • Market Sizing Methodology
      • Table Sales of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2019, 2020, 2021 & Productions for 2022-2025 ($ in 000,000; ranked by 2022P)
      • Table Market Share of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2019, 2020, 2021, &Projections for 2022-2025
    • Instructional Materials Grow 7.3% in 2021
    • Providers Make Gains in a Recovering Market
    • It's (Nearly) All About Digital
      • Table The top tools identified for 2022, for personal learning, workplace learning and education.
    • Testing is Back But Changing…
    • Trade Books
    • Digital and Print Supplements
    • Video
    • Magazines
  • Industry Dynamics
    • Impact of COVID-19
    • Overall Industry Performance
    • Company Moves and Activities
      • Cambium Learning
      • Cengage
      • Discovery Education
      • Goodheart-Willcox
      • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
      • Kahoot!
      • McGraw Hill
      • Renaissance Learning
      • Savvas Learning
      • Scholastic
      • Stride
    • Public Company Performance
      • Table PreK-12 Performance Index, Latest Full Fiscal Year
      • Table PreK-12 Performance Index, Latest Full Fiscal Year
    • Key Drivers of Growth
    • Industry Challenges Impact Operating Margins
    • Positive Revenue Trends Continue into 2022
    • Stockwatch Reflects Mixed Year in 2021
      • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Completes Move to Private Company
      • Pearson's Assessment & Qualifications Division Drive Revenues
      • Table EER Stockwatch: Company Price per Share 2021 and H1 2022
      • Stride Moves to S&P SmallCap 600 Index
      • Scholastic Consolidates Channels
    • SPACs and IPOs: Smaller Growth Companies Go Public
    • Technology, Literacy and Data Among Major M&A Drivers in 2021 and H1 2022
    • 2021 Key Deals
      • Significant High Value Deals: Other Significant Industry Deals in 2021
      • Table PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, January-December 2021
    • Berkery Noyes 2021 Key M&A Highlights
      • 2021 Key Trends
      • M&A Market Overview
    • H1 2022 Key Deals
      • Table PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, H1 2022
    • Berkery Noyes H1 2022 Large Deals and Highlights
  • Market Trends
    • COVID-19 & Lockdowns
    • Addressing Learning Loss: Summer Programs One Option
    • ESSER and School Reopening Plans
    • Acceleration of Digital Trends
      • Online Tutoring Market Soars
      • Online Tutoring Challenges
      • Table Additional Key Companies in the Online Tutoring Sector
      • Influence of Educational Publishers
      • Automated Language Learning Apps
      • Spotlight: Duolingo, Rosetta Stone, Babbel, and Kahoot!
      • The Big Players
      • Opportunities for Educational Publishers
    • Curriculum and Resources
      • Social and Emotional Learning (SEL)
      • Teletherapy as One Solution
    • Supplementary Materials: Ongoing Interest, Though Some Concerns
      • Convenient: Yes. Good: Not Always
      • Why the Problem?
    • Science
    • Emerging Curriculum Subject Areas: Media Literacy and Financial Literacy
      • Media Literacy
      • Table Top Publishers in Media Literacy (number of titles)
      • Financial Literacy
    • Increased Use of Video Games
    • Testing and Assessment
    • Social and Cultural Changes
      • Teacher Shortages
      • Cybersecurity
      • School Safety
      • Objections to Textbook Content
  • Outlook
  • COVID-19 Mandates and Changes
  • A Look Back at the 2021-2022 School Year Policies and Approaches
  • Digital Continues Its Forward March
  • Curriculum Outlook
  • Science: Next Generation Standards and NGSS-Inspired Standards
    • Table Adoptions of New Science Standards, by State, as of 2022
  • Science: Increased Use of Digital Tools
    • Table Total Spending on K-12 Instructional Materials for Science, 2020-2021 vs. 2021-2022, Print vs. Digital vs. Hands-On/Manipulatives ($ in millions)
  • Overall Outlook
    • Table Projected Spending on K-12 Instructional Materials for Science, 2021-2022 vs. 2023-2024, by Funding Source ($ in millions)
    • Science: Gaps in the Market for Instructional Materials
    • Science: Critical Needs in Professional Learning
  • Social and Emotional Learning (SEL): On the Rise
    • SEL Trends to Watch
    • SEL Market Outlook
    • SEL Instructional Materials Needs
  • Supplemental Materials: Growing Fastest in SEL and Science
    • Table Sales of Social-Emotional Learning Materials, 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, Core vs. Supplemental (in millions)
    • Table Forecasted Sales of Social-Emotional Learning Instructional Materials, 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, Core vs. Supplemental (in millions)
    • Table Total Spending on K-12 Instructional Materials for Science, 2020-2021 vs. 2021-2022, Core vs. Supplemental ($ in millions)
    • Self-Created Materials and OER
    • Hands-On Kits: A Luxury Purchase
    • Looking Forward: An Ongoing Emphasis on Reading
  • Other Key Market Trends
    • Instruction, Materials and Learning
    • Rethinking Testing
    • Through-Year Model Takes the Lead
    • Technological Trends
  • Cautions
    • Ongoing Book Challenges
    • Teacher Shortages
    • Increased Use of Free and OER Resources
    • Broader Economic Forces
    • Enrollment Trends and Adoption Schedules
    • Table Projections from NCES for fall 2022-2025 for U.S.
    • Cambium Learning
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Cengage
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Discovery Education
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Goodheart-Willcox Company
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Kahoot!
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • McGraw Hill
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Pearson
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Renaissance
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Savvas Learning Company
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Scholastic Corporation
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status
    • Stride
      • Post COVID-19 Financial Status



Executive Summary

The PreK-12 instructional materials industry generated $9.3 billion in sales in 2021, up from 7.8% from an estimated $8.7 billion in 2020. Several key forces are driving growth: higher enrollment, increased usage of digital and supplemental materials and higher prices during a period of high inflation. Another key factor has been schools ability to continue to draw on federal ESSER funds, created to help remedy learning loss. The analyst forecasts that the instructional materials market will reach $10 billion during 2022.

These are a few of the many findings announced with its release of United States Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2022-2023 report, a comprehensive review of the size, segments, trends, and forces impacting the educational publishing sector for the PreK-12 segment. Sales for instructional materials are segmented into 8 categories - basal curriculum, courseware, digital supplements, state-level tests, manipulatives, trade books, video, and classroom magazine - with market size data for 2019-2021 and projections for each segment for 2022-2025.

The analyst's researchers also found that basal curriculum sales, the largest category in the sector was $2.6 billion, up from $2.5 billion in 2020. Basal curriculum’s share of the overall market is expected to decline over time, however, as spending for digital and supplemental materials increases.

United States Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2022-2023 also identifies and analyzes a wide range of trends impacting the market. Among these are the ongoing increase in the use of digital: virtual schools, digital instructional tools and digital materials. Digital surged during the pandemic but has found ongoing value among educators in the current more post-COVID-19 learning environment. Other key forces impacting the industry include a greater focus on Social and Emotional Learning (SEL) instruction and increased use of supplementary materials.

The report also examines state tests, and examines how while much state testing was suspended in 2020, it has started up again but now in a more modified and limited manner. For example, there is increased interest and activity in trying out new modes of testing that may be less stressful and more appropriate that integrate what is called “balanced assessment.” Under that umbrella there has been special interest specifically in the “through-year” testing model.

The report also provides a competitive analysis of the major players in this segment, tracking and listing major M&A deals for 2021 and the first half of 2022, and identifying the key themes that dominated the landscape. Leading public and private companies are profiled as well, which, for the public companies and private where available, identifies their latest strategic direction and financials.

Key companies are also profiled in the report: Cambium Learning, Cengage, Discovery Education, Goodheart-Willcox, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Kahoot!, McGraw Hill, Pearson, Renaissance Learning, Savvas Learning, Scholastic, and Stride.

Other trends, factors and market and industry forces examined in the report include a breakdown of various types of instructional materials; industry dynamics in a post-COVID-19 learning environment; trends in subject areas such as science, reading, SEL, and online tutoring, and heightened interest in teaching media and financial literacy.

Cautions and hurdles facing those in this market are also explored, including teacher shortages, cybersecurity, school safety, macroeconomic trends, and challenges to classroom instructional content by parental and political groups.

Also covered in the report is student enrollment data, including by type of school and other educational segments, federal and state funding for schools to address learning loss, and selected states’ adoption materials calendars through 2025.

The report also provides an outlook for what to look for in the PreK-12 instructional materials market moving forward as well, examining the future of digital, curricula, subject area trends, testing, and more. 

Companies Mentioned

  • Cengage
  • Discovery Education
  • Goodheart-Willcox Company
  • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
  • Kahoot!
  • McGraw Hill
  • Pearson
  • Renaissance
  • Savvas Learning Company
  • Scambium Learning
  • Scholastic Corporation
  • Stride