Gluten-Free Bakery - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The gluten-free bakery market is expected to grow from USD 7.20 billion in 2025 to USD 7.76 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 11.32 billion by 2031 at 7.83% CAGR over 2026-2031.

The market expansion is attributed to the increasing prevalence of celiac disease, which affects approximately 1% of the global population, and consumers who adopt gluten-free diets as a health-conscious decision, according to the National Institutes of Health. Besides, regulatory clarity also supports demand; the US FDA requires any product labeled “gluten-free” to contain less than 20 ppm gluten, giving shoppers confidence in safety and label accuracy. On the supply side, large bakeries continue to scale dedicated production lines, while smaller brands exploit online channels and direct-to-consumer (D2C) subscriptions to reach niche audiences. Persistent price premiums, cross-contamination risks, and climate-related grain shortages remain the key friction points, yet they have not slowed new-product velocity or capital investment.

Global Gluten-Free Bakery Market Trends and Insights

Rising prevalence of celiac disease and gluten sensitivity

The increasing prevalence of celiac disease, with 1 in 70 Australians affected according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's 2024 data and 1% prevalence in the US as reported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, generates market demand for gluten-free food options. The gluten-free bakery segment addresses the requirements of both medically diagnosed gluten-intolerant consumers and health-focused customers who select gluten-free products. Enhanced diagnostic capabilities and ongoing research into enzyme therapies and immune modulation are projected to increase consumer awareness of gluten sensitivity, strengthening the demand for gluten-free alternatives. Manufacturers are implementing product development strategies using alternative flours such as almond, rice, and quinoa to produce gluten-free baked goods that maintain quality standards comparable to conventional products. Companies implementing certified gluten-free labeling, supply chain transparency, and product quality optimization are positioned to capitalize on this expanding market. The gluten-free bakery segment, comprising artisan breads, muffins, and pastries, offers market opportunities for both large-scale manufacturers and specialized bakeries.

Clean-label “free-from” positioning by premium bakery brands

The gluten-free bakery market has evolved from serving medical needs to becoming a lifestyle choice through premium positioning and clean-label messaging. This shift allows manufacturers to increase profit margins and reach broader consumer segments. In 2024, Ardent Mills expanded its portfolio by introducing Ancient Grains Plus Baking Flour Blend and Egg Replace products across its network of over 40 gluten-free facilities, focusing on plant-based and sustainable solutions. Companies like Renewal Mill are addressing both ingredient transparency and environmental concerns by developing upcycled heirloom corn flour with gluten content below 5 ppm. However, manufacturers face the challenge of maintaining product functionality while meeting clean-label demands, as traditional gluten-free formulations depend on hydrocolloids and emulsifiers to achieve desired texture and shelf life.

Premium price versus conventional bakery items

The elevated pricing of gluten-free bakery products results from the high cost of ingredient alternatives to wheat flour, including rice, tapioca, sorghum, and almond flour. These alternative ingredients do not provide the binding and elastic properties of gluten, requiring manufacturers to implement more complex formulations for baked goods. Operational costs increase due to the necessity for dedicated gluten-free manufacturing facilities or separate production lines to prevent cross-contamination, combined with reduced production volumes. The manufacturing process requires increased labor allocation and rigorous quality control protocols due to the technical challenges of gluten-free doughs, which demonstrate reduced stability and increased adhesion compared to conventional doughs. In North American and European markets, the current competitive landscape enables manufacturers to maintain premium pricing while implementing product certifications and safety protocols. This pricing structure may shift as production capacity increases, manufacturing processes automate, and market entrants introduce cost-effective alternatives. In emerging markets, the premium pricing of gluten-free bakery products continues to impede market penetration, despite increasing consumer awareness of gluten sensitivities and health considerations among populations with constrained purchasing power.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Labeling laws and certifications build consumer trust
• D2C subscription models boosting niche brand reach
• Cross-contamination risks in shared facilities of emerging markets

Segment Analysis

Bread maintains a commanding 35.78% market share in 2025, reflecting its status as a dietary staple that consumers prioritize when transitioning to gluten-free diets. However, the cakes, muffins, and brownies segment accelerates at 11.66% CAGR through 2031, indicating evolving consumer expectations beyond basic nutrition toward indulgent experiences. Lancaster Colony launched its first gluten-free frozen bread line under the New York Bakery brand in September 2024, featuring patent-pending formulation technology that enhances texture and flavor while maintaining certification standards. Cookies and biscuits occupy the middle ground, benefiting from portion control appeal and longer shelf life advantages that facilitate distribution and inventory management.

In January 2024, Nothing Bundt Cakes introduced new gluten-free products, aligning with the market trend of mainstream bakery chains expanding their gluten-free portfolios to address increasing consumer demand. This expansion demonstrates the segment's commercial potential beyond niche markets. The bakery products segment has diversified through the incorporation of protein-enriched and functional ingredients, meeting consumer requirements for baked goods with enhanced nutritional benefits beyond gluten-free attributes.

The Gluten-Free Bakery Market Report is Segmented by Product Type (Bread, Cookies and Biscuits, Cakes and Muffins, and Other Gluten-Free Bakery Products), Distribution Channel (Supermarkets/Hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, Specialist Stores, Online Retail, and Other Channels), Flour Type (Corn Flour, Rice Flour, and Other Flour Types), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Geography Analysis

North America holds 33.42% market share in 2025, supported by high consumer awareness, well-established regulatory frameworks, and premium positioning strategies that drive per capita revenue. The region's market leadership stems from sophisticated distribution networks, strong retail partnerships, and continuous product innovation. Consumer preferences in North America increasingly favor premium gluten-free options, particularly in snacks and bakery segments. The market demonstrates sustained growth potential through expanding product categories and enhanced nutritional profiles.

Asia-Pacific demonstrates the highest growth rate at 11.72% CAGR through 2031, fueled by increasing disposable incomes, urbanization trends, and growing health consciousness among middle-class consumers. The IFIA/HFE 2024 exhibition in Japan highlighted gluten-free bakery product innovations, including specialized madeleines, demonstrating manufacturers' growing focus on Asian markets. Regional market development is supported by improving retail infrastructure and digital commerce platforms. India's FSSAI extended foreign food manufacturing facility registration deadlines to September 2024, creating market entry opportunities for international brands, as reported by the United States Department of Agriculture.

Europe shows increasing demand for gluten-free bakery products, particularly in the bakery segment, with strong growth in countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Market participants are developing new gluten-free bakery options in response to rising health consciousness and awareness among consumers, focusing on taste improvement and texture enhancement. For instance, IfD Allensbach reported that 2.16 million consumers in Germany purchased gluten-free products within 14 days in 2024. Moreover, in June 2025, gluten-free food manufacturer Juvela introduced a new bakery brand, Oaf, offering bread and related products, exemplifying the market's innovation trajectory. The region's growth is further supported by stringent food labeling regulations, increased celiac disease diagnosis rates, and expanding retail distribution channels.

List of companies covered in this report:

• Dr. Schar AG/SpA
• General Mills, Inc.
• Hain Celestial Group
• Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV
• Hero Group AG
• Flowers Foods Inc. (Canyon Bakehouse)
• Warburtons Ltd.
• Amy's Kitchen Inc.
• Bob's Red Mill Natural Foods
• Dawn Food Products Inc
• The Kellog Company
• Mission Foods
• Genius Foods Ltd.
• BFree Foods
• Kinnikinnick Foods Inc.
• Toufayan Bakeries
• Nairn's Oatcakes Ltd.
• WOW Baking Company,
• The Smart Baking Company
• Ener-G Foods

Additional benefits of purchasing this report:

• Access to the market estimate sheet (Excel format)
• 3 months of analyst support