USA Small Arms Market Outlook to 2030

The USA Small Arms Market has experienced robust growth in recent years, reflecting the expansion of the broader North American small arms industry, which reached a market size of USD 3.83 Bn, driven by increased defence procurement, rising civilian firearm ownership, and continual modernisation of military and law enforcement forces.

Key players in this market include states like Texas, Florida, and California, which dominate due to their large populations, cultural acceptance of firearms, and robust recreational shooting communities. These regions have established a strong infrastructure for manufacturing and distribution, further solidifying their positions in the market.

The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, signed into law in June 2022, expanded background checks for firearm purchasers under 21 by requiring a review of juvenile and mental health records, clarified federal firearms licensing requirements, and provided funding for state crisis intervention programs. The law also invested in school safety and mental health services, and partially closed domestic violence loopholes.

USA Small Arms Market Segmentation

By Type: The small arms market can be segmented into handguns, rifles, and shotguns. Among these, handguns dominate the market due to their popularity for personal defense and concealed carry. The increasing number of concealed carry permits and the growing trend of self-defense among civilians have led to a surge in handgun sales. Additionally, the rise of shooting sports and recreational activities has further fueled the demand for handguns, making them a preferred choice for consumers.

By Application: The small arms market is segmented into civilian, military, and law enforcement applications. The civilian segment holds the largest share, driven by the increasing interest in personal protection and recreational shooting. The rise in gun ownership, coupled with a growing number of shooting ranges and training facilities, has significantly boosted the civilian market. Furthermore, the military segment is also substantial, as defense budgets continue to allocate funds for modernizing and equipping armed forces with advanced small arms technology.

USA Small Arms Market Competitive Landscape

The USA Small Arms Market is characterized by a competitive landscape dominated by several key players, including both established manufacturers and emerging companies. This consolidation reflects the significant influence of these major companies in shaping market trends and consumer preferences. The competitive dynamics are driven by innovation, product diversification, and strategic partnerships, which are essential for maintaining market relevance and meeting evolving consumer demands.

USA Small Arms Market Industry Analysis

Growth Drivers

Increasing Civilian Demand for Firearms: Increasing Civilian Demand for Firearms: In 2021, civilian firearm ownership in the U.S. exceeded 400 million, surpassing the population of about 336 million, with roughly 1.2 guns per person. Around 32% of Americans, or 107 million people, personally owned firearms in 2024. First-time gun buyers surged to over 7 million between 2019 and 2021, driven by safety concerns and social unrest. Although gun sales peaked in 2020, they have slightly declined since but remain historically high. This trend underscores firearms’ prominent role in U.S. society.

Rising Military Expenditure and Modernization Programs: The U.S. military budget for 2024 was about $850 billion, with total defense-related spending nearing $997 billion when including additional costs. This significant funding supports ongoing modernization programs focused on advanced weaponry, training systems, and readiness. As the military upgrades its arsenal, demand for small arms rises, encouraging manufacturers to develop innovative products and technologies. These efforts ensure the U.S. maintains a technological edge and operational effectiveness amid evolving global security challenges.

Growing Interest in Shooting Sports and Hunting Activities: The shooting sports industry in the U.S. has grown significantly, with over 52.7 million Americans participating in sport and target shooting activities in 2024. This rise reflects increasing interest in recreational shooting and hunting. Enthusiasts are driving demand for diverse firearms, including handguns and rifles, to enhance their experiences, supported by growing participation across various age groups and regions, as reported by the National Shooting Sports Foundation.

Market Challenges

Stringent Gun Control Regulations: The regulatory landscape surrounding firearms in the U.S. is complex and varies significantly by state. In 2024, over 20 states have enacted stricter gun control measures, including background checks and waiting periods, which can hinder market growth. These regulations are often influenced by public safety concerns and political pressures, creating a challenging environment for manufacturers and retailers. Compliance with these laws requires significant resources, which can impact profitability and operational efficiency.

Public Safety Concerns and Anti-Gun Movements: The ongoing debate surrounding gun control and public safety continues to pose challenges for the small arms market. High-profile incidents of gun violence have led to increased scrutiny and calls for reform, with advocacy groups pushing for stricter regulations. In 2023, public opinion polls indicated that approximately 60% of Americans support stricter gun laws, which can lead to potential market restrictions and affect consumer sentiment. This environment creates uncertainty for manufacturers and retailers, impacting their strategic planning and investment decisions.

USA Small Arms Market Future Outlook

The small arms market is anticipated to evolve significantly over the next few years, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences. As manufacturers innovate with smart firearms and enhanced safety features, the market is expected to adapt to the demands of a more safety-conscious consumer base. Additionally, the expansion of e-commerce platforms for firearm sales will likely reshape distribution channels, providing new opportunities for growth.

Market Opportunities

Technological Advancements in Firearm Manufacturing: The integration of smart technology into firearms, such as biometric safeties and tracking systems, presents a significant opportunity for manufacturers. As consumers increasingly prioritize safety and personalization, companies that invest in innovative technologies can capture a growing segment of the market.

Expansion into Emerging Markets: As global demand for firearms increases, manufacturers have the opportunity to expand into emerging markets where firearm ownership is on the rise. Countries in Asia and Africa are experiencing a growing interest in personal defense and recreational shooting, providing a fertile ground for U.S. manufacturers to explore new sales channels and partnerships.