Autonomous Public Transit Global Market Report 2025

The autonomous public transit market size has grown exponentially in recent years. It will grow from $2.59 billion in 2024 to $3.15 billion in 2025 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8%. The growth in the historic period can be attributed to a surge in urbanization, surging environmental concerns, increasing investments, favorable government policies, and a shift towards electrification.

The autonomous public transit market size is expected to see exponential growth in the next few years. It will grow to $6.86 billion in 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.5%. The growth in the forecast period can be attributed to increasing demand for sustainable transportation, the need for cost-effective transportation solutions, pilot programs and collaborations between manufacturers, a surge in adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles, and a focus on enhancing passenger safety and convenience. Major trends in the forecast period include large-scale AI and ML, vehicle-to-vehicle communication, lane-keeping assistance, and collision avoidance systems.

The forecast of 21.5% growth over the next five years reflects a modest reduction of 1.1% from the previous estimate for this market.This reduction is primarily due to the impact of tariffs between the US and other countries. This is likely to directly affect the US through tariffs on drive-by-wire systems, passenger safety sensors, and V2I modules imported from South Korea and China, increasing deployment costs for smart urban transit solutions.The effect will also be felt more widely due to reciprocal tariffs and the negative effect on the global economy and trade due to increased trade tensions and restrictions.

The increasing traffic congestion is expected to drive the growth of the autonomous public transit market. Traffic congestion occurs when the volume of vehicles exceeds road capacity, leading to slower speeds, longer travel times, and traffic jams. The rising congestion is largely due to rapid urban population growth, which results in higher vehicle ownership and greater demand for road infrastructure. Autonomous public transit can help ease traffic congestion by optimizing route efficiency, reducing the number of privately owned vehicles on the road, and promoting shared mobility solutions that maximize passenger capacity while minimizing travel time and fuel consumption. For example, in May 2024, the Department for Transport, a UK-based government agency, reported that in 2023, vehicles in Great Britain traveled 330.8 billion miles, a 2.2% increase from 2022. Therefore, the growing traffic congestion is driving the expansion of the autonomous public transit market.

Key players in the autonomous public transit market are focusing on developing innovative solutions, such as Level 4 driverless vehicles, to advance the integration of autonomous technology into public transportation systems. A Level 4 driverless vehicle is fully autonomous within specific conditions or designated areas, requiring no human intervention. For instance, in August 2024, Karsan, a Turkey-based autonomous vehicle manufacturer, partnered with ADASTEC Corporation, a U.S.-based autonomous driving technology company, to launch the Autonomous e-ATAK, an automated bus service featuring the world's first Level-4 driverless public vehicle operating on a planned 2.2-kilometer route in Arbon. The Autonomous e-ATAK is equipped with advanced sensor fusion technology, including LiDAR, radar, and cameras, integrated with ADASTEC's flowride.ai software platform to enable safe navigation, real-time decision-making, and full autonomy in complex urban environments.

In July 2023, Transdev Group S.A., a France-based transit mobility solutions provider, acquired First Transit for an undisclosed amount. This acquisition enables Transdev to strengthen its position in the Canadian public transportation market by integrating First Transit's expertise in transit, shuttle services, paratransit, and fleet maintenance. First Transit Inc., a U.S.-based mobility solutions operator, specializes in providing autonomous public transit vehicles.

Autonomous public transit refers to a self-operating transportation system that leverages advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, and real-time data analytics to navigate, control, and manage public vehicles, including buses, shuttles, or trains, without the need for direct human intervention. This system ensures efficient, safe, and consistent service delivery, optimizing urban mobility by reducing traffic congestion, lowering operational costs, and improving accessibility, particularly in underserved or high-demand areas.

The main vehicle types in autonomous public transit include autonomous electric buses, autonomous shuttles, and autonomous taxis. Autonomous electric buses are self-driving, battery-powered public transport vehicles designed to operate autonomously, offering sustainable and low-emission urban mobility. These vehicles rely on various components such as software, hardware, and services, and are used across applications in industrial, urban, and rural transportation.

Note that the outlook for this market is being affected by rapid changes in trade relations and tariffs globally. The report will be updated prior to delivery to reflect the latest status, including revised forecasts and quantified impact analysis. The report’s Recommendations and Conclusions sections will be updated to give strategies for entities dealing with the fast-moving international environment.

The sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and ensuing trade tensions in spring 2025 are placing significant strain on the transport sector, especially in areas such as fleet maintenance and logistics. Increased duties on imported commercial vehicles, tires, and engine parts have driven up operating costs for trucking and freight firms, forcing them to either raise shipping rates or accept lower profit margins. Airlines and maritime operators are also under pressure, as tariffs on aircraft components and shipbuilding materials have pushed capital expenditures higher. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs in key export markets have weakened demand for U.S.-manufactured transportation equipment, further squeezing revenues. To cope, the industry is turning to fuel efficiency measures, alternative supply sources, and greater automation to manage rising costs while maintaining dependable service.

The autonomous public transit market research report is one of a series of new reports that provides autonomous public transit market statistics, including autonomous public transit industry global market size, regional shares, competitors with a autonomous public transit market share, detailed autonomous public transit market segments, market trends and opportunities, and any further data you may need to thrive in the autonomous public transit industry. This autonomous public transit market research report delivers a complete perspective of everything you need, with an in-depth analysis of the current and future scenario of the industry.

Major players in the autonomous public transit market are Amazon.com Inc., AB Volvo, Continental AG, Scania CV AB, Transdev, MAN Truck & Bus, Keolis, Yutong Bus Co. Ltd., Arrival UK Ltd., Waymo LLC, Nuro Inc., Motional Inc., Karsan, EasyMile, Aurora Innovation, Pony AI Inc., May Mobility, AutoX Inc., LILEE System, Navya, Perrone Robotics Inc.

Asia-Pacific was the largest region in the autonomous public transit market in 2024. Europe is expected to be the fastest-growing region in the forecast period. The regions covered in autonomous public transit report are Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, Middle East and Africa.

The countries covered in the autonomous public transit market report are Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, UK, USA, Canada, Italy, Spain.

The autonomous public transit market consists of revenues earned by entities by providing services such as route planning and optimization services, remote fleet management, and autonomous vehicle maintenance and diagnostics. The market value includes the value of related goods sold by the service provider or included within the service offering. The autonomous public transit market also includes sales of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors, and autonomous driving software platforms. Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods.

The market value is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from the sale of goods and/or services within the specified market and geography through sales, grants, or donations in terms of the currency (in USD, unless otherwise specified).

The revenues for a specified geography are consumption values that are revenues generated by organizations in the specified geography within the market, irrespective of where they are produced. It does not include revenues from resales along the supply chain, either further along the supply chain or as part of other products.

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