Autonomous Public Transit Global Market Opportunities And Strategies To 2034

This report describes and explains the autonomous public transit market and covers 2019-2024, termed the historic period, and 2024-2029, 2034F termed the forecast period. The report evaluates the market across each region and for the major economies within each region.

The global autonomous public transit market reached a value of nearly $2.58 billion in 2024, having grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.49% since 2019. The market is expected to grow from $2.58 billion in 2024 to $7.27 billion in 2029 at a rate of 23.00%. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.98% from 2029 and reach $20.47 billion in 2034.

Growth in the historic period resulted from the rising traffic congestion, expansion of smart city initiatives, growth in shared mobility services and increased focus on road safety. Factors that negatively affected growth in the historic period were lack of public acceptance and cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

Going forward, the adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles, rising global public transit spending, increasing demand for sustainable transportation and favorable government initiatives will drive the growth. Factors that could hinder the growth of the autonomous public transit market in the future include high initial investment and development costs, lack of infrastructure for autonomous vehicle operations and trade war and tariffs.

The autonomous public transit market is segmented by vehicle type into autonomous electric buses, autonomous shuttles and autonomous taxis. The autonomous electric buses market was the largest segment of the autonomous public transit market segmented by vehicle type, accounting for 56.71% or $1.46 billion of the total in 2024. Going forward, the autonomous electric buses segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous public transit market segmented by vehicle type, at a CAGR of 23.74% during 2024-2029.

The autonomous public transit market is segmented by component into software, hardware and services. The hardware market was the largest segment of the autonomous public transit market segmented by component, accounting for 47.30% or $1.22 billion of the total in 2024. Going forward, the software segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous public transit market segmented by component, at a CAGR of 28.41% during 2024-2029.

The autonomous public transit market is segmented by application into industrial transportation, urban transportation, and rural transportation. The urban transportation market was the largest segment of the autonomous public transit market segmented by application, accounting for 78.88% or $2.03 billion of the total in 2024. Going forward, the urban transporting segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous public transit market segmented by application, at a CAGR of 23.40% during 2024-2029.

Asia Pacific was the largest region in the autonomous public transit market, accounting for 43.10% or $1.11 billion of the total in 2024. It was followed by North America, Western Europe and then the other regions. Going forward, the fastest-growing regions in the autonomous public transit market will be Africa and South America where growth will be at CAGRs of 54.26% and 37.46% respectively. These will be followed by Middle East and Eastern Europe where the markets are expected to grow at CAGRs of 33.70% and 29.10% respectively.

The global autonomous public transit market is fairly fragmented, with a large number of small players operating in the market. The top ten competitors in the market made up to 16.45% of the total market in 2024. Waymo LLC. was the largest competitor with a 3.05% share of the market, followed by Baidu Inc. (Apolong) with 2.60%, Yutong Bus Co. Ltd. with 2.00%, EasyMile SAS. with 1.58%, Keolis with 1.44%, Transdev with 1.26%, AB Volvo Group (Volvo Buses) with 1.19%, Scania AB with 1.15%, Pony AI Inc. with 1.12% and Motional Inc. with 1.05%.

The top opportunities in the autonomous public transit market segmented by vehicle type will arise in the autonomous public transit segment, which will gain $4.69 billion of global annual sales by 2029. The top opportunities in the autonomous public transit market segmented by component will arise in the software segment, which will gain $2.32 billion of global annual sales by 2029. The top opportunities in the autonomous public transit market segmented by application will arise in the urban transportation segment, which will gain $3.79 billion of global annual sales by 2029. The autonomous public transit market size will gain the most in the USA at $1.19 billion.

Market-trend-based strategies for the autonomous public transit market include launch of innovative products such as autonomous trains to improve operational efficiency, launch of innovative product, such as autonomous electric vehicle, to enhance operational efficiency, launch of innovative services such as autonomous buses to enhance urban mobility and launch of innovative services, such as nighttime autonomous services, to provide safe and reliable transportation.

Player-adopted strategies in the autonomous public transit market include focus on expanding its business capabilities through partnership and innovative product to expand its operational capabilities.

To take advantage of the opportunities, the analyst recommends the autonomous public transit market companies to focus on autonomous train deployment to enhance operational efficiency, focus on autonomous electric vehicle deployment for sustainable urban mobility, focus on autonomous bus services to enhance urban mobility, focus on nighttime autonomous services to expand urban mobility, focus on autonomous electric buses for high-growth expansion, focus on software solutions to drive autonomous public transit growth, expand in emerging markets, continue to focus on developed markets, focus on expanding distribution channels for autonomous public transit, focus on developing competitive and flexible pricing strategies for autonomous public transit, focus on leveraging digital channels to promote autonomous public transit, focus on strategic partnerships and public awareness initiatives and focus on urban transportation to accelerate autonomous public transit growth.

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