The analyst Gas Market Outlook 2026
Summary
The the analyst Gas Market Outlook 2026 is the first edition of the analyst's flagship outlook for global natural gas to 2035. It combines country-level demand modeling, built on detailed macroeconomic, power, and industrial data, with the analyst's proprietary asset-level data on gas fields, LNG plants, pipelines, and storage sites. The report covers demand, supply, trade, storage, and prices by country, region, and sector across six scenarios, and sets out how the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption, the LNG construction wave, and the export routes available to new supply shape the market over the next decade.Market overview
The gas market entered 2026 expecting a glut and received a transit shock instead. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz from February 28, 2026, cut off access to about 20% of global LNG supply, and the strikes on Ras Laffan damaged about 17% of Qatar's export capacity. The analyst's central judgment is that the market repriced a transit risk, not a resource shortage. Middle Eastern production falls 98.7 bcm in 2026, so world supply rises only 14.9 bcm against 37.7 bcm of demand growth, and the analyst estimates the demand that could not be served at 38-59 bcm.Key findings
- No global peak in gas demand before 2035: world demand rises 19.8% to 5,181.5 bcm in the Reference Case and is still growing in 2035 in every scenario, with power generation supplying half of the growth.
- The LNG wave makes the market long from 2027: the apparent surplus peaks at 199.0 bcm in 2029 as 281.3 mtpa of liquefaction at construction or commissioning stage starts up by 2031, before the market balances in 2034 and turns short in 2035.
- Infrastructure, not reserves, is the binding constraint: 166 bcm of the 2035 production planned at field level has no sanctioned or FID-dated route to market.
- A quarter of 2035 supply is not yet producing: fields producing today supply 75.4% of 2035 output, while producing fields decline by 505.0 bcm over the decade.
- Prices settle without closing the transatlantic gap: TTF at $10.15/MMBtu, JKM at $10.85/MMBtu, and Henry Hub at $3.90/MMBtu from 2028.
Looking ahead
The 2027-2033 surplus is more likely to be worked off by a mix of cheaper LNG drawing in demand and supply that slips or is lost than to persist. Beyond 2030, the dated construction pipeline runs out while demand keeps growing, so the balance in the 2030s depends on export routes being sanctioned in the new supply provinces and on US production keeping pace with US liquefaction.Key Highlights
- Global gas demand rises from 4,326.5 bcm in 2025 to 5,181.5 bcm in 2035, an increase of 19.8%; power generation contributes 432.0 bcm, half of the growth.
- In 2026, Middle Eastern production falls 98.7 bcm and world supply grows only 14.9 bcm, against 37.7 bcm of demand growth.
- The apparent surplus of supply over demand peaks at 199.0 bcm in 2029; the market is balanced in 2034 and shows a deficit of 62.9 bcm in 2035.
- 166 bcm of 2035 upstream supply planned at field level in 13 countries has no sanctioned or FID-dated export route.
- AI Boom adds 86.4 bcm of gas demand by 2035 above the Reference Case, half of it in North America.
- TTF settles at $10.15/MMBtu and Henry Hub at $3.90/MMBtu from 2028.
Scope
- Global natural gas demand, supply, trade, storage, and price outlook from 2025 to 2035, with history from 2015.
- Six scenarios: Reference Case, Price Convergence, Accelerated Transition, AI Boom, Fragmented Supply, and Unconstrained Upstream.
- Country, regional, and sector demand; field-level supply by lifecycle stage, resource type, and terrain; LNG and pipeline trade; underground storage; and price decks for the main gas benchmarks.
Reasons to Buy
- Benchmark your own view against an independent outlook that combines driver-based demand modeling with the analyst's proprietary asset-level supply data.
- Identify where field-level production plans exceed the export routes available to them, and which countries and projects are affected.
- Time the LNG cycle for contracting, investment, and trading decisions, with the balance shown year by year to 2035 under six scenarios.
- Stress-test strategies against the analyst's price decks for TTF, JKM, Henry Hub, and other regional benchmarks.
- Understand where demand growth comes from by country and sector, including power generation and data centers.
Table of Contents
- Foreword
- Executive Summary
- Executive view
- The gas market at a glance
- The Analyst's headline calls
- Part 1 Drivers, Scenarios, and Assumptions
1.2 Scenarios and cases
1.3 Key assumptions
- Part 2 Global Balance
2.2 Where the market is heading to 2035
2.3 The big questions
- Part 3 Demand Outlook
3.2 Global demand trajectory
3.3 Demand by sector
3.4 Demand by region
3.5 Spotlight: AI and data-center power demand
3.6 Peak-demand synthesis
- Part 4 Supply Outlook
4.2 Supply breakdown: regions, resource type, basins, and terrain
4.3 Upstream economics and cost curves
4.4 Reserves and investment
- Part 5 Trade, LNG, and Infrastructure
5.2 The LNG wave: liquefaction, regasification, and the balance
5.3 LNG economics and cost curves
5.4 Shipping, contracting, and gas processing
- Part 6 Storage and Seasonal Security
6.2 Seasonal security: Europe's 2026 refill test
6.3 Deliverability and security through the outlook
- Part 7 Prices and Competitiveness
7.2 Competitiveness and switching
- Part 8 The Long View and Implications
8.2 Implications by stakeholder
8.3 Forecast performance and benchmarking
- Annexes
- Annex A Data tables
- Annex B Scenario design and assumptions
- Annex C Methodology
- Annex D Regional and country groupings
- Annex E Definitions and glossary
- Annex F Data sources and references
Table 0.3: The gas market at a glance, Reference Case
Table 1.1: Macro driver dashboard by region
Table 1.2: Policy and market events timeline, 2026-2027
Table 1.3: GMO 2026 scenarios: what each case changes and the headline results
Table 1.4: Price decks by scenario ($/MMBtu)
Table 2.1: Global gas balance to 2035 (bcm)
Table 3.1: World gas demand by sector, 2019-2035 (bcm)
Table 3.2: Country module: the twelve largest gas markets in 2035 (bcm)
Table 3.3: AI Boom: incremental data-center gas-fired generation above the Reference Case (TWh)
Table 3.4: Peak-year league table: region by sector, Reference Case
Table 4.1: Upstream plans against export routes, by country (bcm)
Table 4.2: US gas production by play (bcm): field-level path, remaining gas, and route to the LNG terminals
Table 7.1: GlobalData Reference price deck by market ($/MMBtu)
Table 8.1: Signposts to watch, 2035 to 2050
Table 8.2: Implications matrix: stakeholder by key call
Table 8.3: How the 2026 calls are tracking against primary data
Table A.1: Natural gas demand by region, Reference Case (bcm)
Table A.2: World natural gas demand by sector, Reference Case (bcm)
Table A.3: Natural gas production by region, Reference Case and field-level plans (bcm)
Table A.4: Regional net position, production minus demand, Reference Case (bcm)
Table A.5: Scenario results: world demand, supply and balance (bcm)
Table A.6: Supply deferred for lack of an export route, Reference Case (bcm)
Table B.1: Scenario design: levers by case
Table D.1: Regional groupings used in this report
Table E.1: Definitions, units and conversions
List of Figures
Figure 1: World natural gas demand and supply by scenario, 2015-2035 (bcm)
Figure 2: Price decks by scenario: TTF, JKM and Henry Hub, 2018-2035 ($/MMBtu)
Figure 3: 2026 change on 2025 by region: demand and supply (bcm)
Figure 4: Global natural gas supply against demand, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 5: Supply against demand by region, 2025 and 2035 (bcm)
Figure 6: Net trade position by country, 2035 (production minus demand, bcm)
Figure 7: Upstream plans against export routes: supply deferred for lack of an outlet, by country and year (bcm)
Figure 8: Demand change by region and largest-change countries, 2026 vs 2025 (bcm)
Figure 9: Demand change by region, 2024-2028 (indexed, 2024 = 100)
Figure 10: World demand, 2022-2026: notional, effective (IEA-implied), and without the Hormuz shock (bcm)
Figure 11: World natural gas demand, 2015-2035, with the range across scenarios (bcm)
Figure 12: Demand growth by country income group, 2025-2035
Figure 13: Demand growth by sector, 2025-2035 (bcm)
Figure 14: World natural gas demand by sector, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 15: Demand by main sector, indexed to 2019 = 100, 2019-2035
Figure 16: Demand share by sector, 2025 and 2035 (%)
Figure 17: Demand growth by region, 2025-2035 (bcm)
Figure 18: Natural gas demand by region, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 19: Top 15 countries by natural gas demand, 2035 (bcm)
Figure 20: Power-sector natural gas demand by region, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 21: AI Boom against the Reference Case: additional gas demand by year and by region (bcm)
Figure 22: Natural gas demand by region and main sector, 2035 (bcm)
Figure 23: Global natural gas production, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 24: Natural gas supply by lifecycle layer, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 25: Production growth by country, 2025-2035, Reference against field-level plans (bcm)
Figure 26: Natural gas production by region, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 27: US gas production by play against the production US LNG would need, 2020-2035 (bcm)
Figure 28: Global gas supply cost curve (remaining reserves)
Figure 29: Median break-even gas price by region
Figure 30: Remaining recoverable gas in the asset base by country, field level (bcm)
Figure 31: Largest increases in gas upstream capex, 3-year trailing average, 2024 to 2027 ($ billion)
Figure 32: Gas capex intensity: average annual gas capex 2024-2026 per bcm of 2025 production ($ million per bcm)
Figure 33: Regional net-trade position, 2025, 2030 and 2035 range across scenarios (bcm)
Figure 34: Largest cross-border pipeline flows, 2025, and change on 2024 (bcm)
Figure 35: How Europe meets its gas demand, 2019-2025 (bcm; 30 JODI reporters)
Figure 36: Cross-border pipeline flows against recorded corridor capacity, 2025
Figure 37: Where the largest gas importers get their gas, 2025 (share of supply)
Figure 38: LNG export capacity against the import requirement in Asia Pacific and Europe, 2020-2035, by scenario (bcm)
Figure 39: LNG trade by exporting and importing region, 2025 (bcm)
Figure 40: Europe's LNG imports by supplier, 2019 and 2025 (bcm)
Figure 41: Global LNG liquefaction capacity by project stage, 2010-2035 (mtpa)
Figure 42: LNG liquefaction capacity at construction or commissioning stage, by first-capacity year, 2026-2031 (mtpa)
Figure 43: LNG liquefaction capacity still in development, by FID date and current stage (mtpa)
Figure 44: LNG liquefaction utilization by exporting country, 2025
Figure 45: Regional net trade position against LNG liquefaction and regasification capacity, 2030 (bcm)
Figure 46: Net trade position against LNG capacity, selected exporters and importers, 2030 (bcm)
Figure 47: US LNG export capacity against the exportable surplus in the supply model, 2025-2035 (bcm)
Figure 48: Monthly LNG exports of Qatar, the US and Australia, January 2025 to July 2026 (bcm)
Figure 49: LNG liquefaction and regasification capacity, 2010-2035 (bcm/y)
Figure 50: Unit cost of new LNG liquefaction capacity by region ($ per tonne of annual capacity)
Figure 51: LNG long-term contracts: volume in force and volume expiring, 2025-2040 (mtpa)
Figure 52: Gas processing capacity in development and annual capital expenditure
Figure 53: Underground storage against demand: days of average demand held as working gas, 2025 and 2035
Figure 54: Underground storage: active working gas and planned or announced additions by region (bcm)
Figure 55: Gas in storage in Europe, end of month, 2026 against 2021-2025 (bcm)
Figure 56: Underground storage by site type: working gas and days to empty at peak withdrawal (active sites)
Figure 57: Gas price landscape by market, Reference Case, 2035 ($/MMBtu)
Figure 58: Gas price benchmark outlook, 2015-2035 ($/MMBtu)
Figure 59: Price spreads by scenario: TTF minus Henry Hub and JKM minus TTF, 2023-2035 ($/MMBtu)
Figure C.1: Framework schematic: GlobalData natural gas demand model
Figure C.2: Framework schematic: GlobalData natural gas supply model
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- QatarEnergy
- Venture Global
- NextDecade
- Shell
- TotalEnergies
- ConocoPhillips
- JERA
- Gazprom
- Delfin Midstream
- Caturus
- GE Vernova
- Siemens Energy
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
- Meta
- Microsoft
