Mexico Mobile Telecommunications Market, 2025-2030: The Challengers' Main Host Network Changes Hands, Pending the CNA

Mexico's mobile telecommunications market generated $19.7 billion in 2025 and grows at a 5.0% CAGR to $25.1 billion by 2030 in the base case, as the radio network that carries most of the challengers' lines changes hands, pending the CNA's ruling.

The sale of AT&T México to Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings, 50/50 and pending the CNA's ruling, with closing expected in the first quarter of 2027, moves the radio network that carries most of Mexico's challengers' lines. That network carries 30% of the country's mobile lines, including Movistar México's, whose access agreement renews from November 2027. Mexico's mobile telecommunications market generated $19.7 billion in 2025, and the base case grows it at a 5.0% CAGR to $25.1 billion by 2030.

The report runs to 60 pages with 12 charts and 10 data tables. It profiles nine companies, including América Móvil, AT&T México, Grupo Televisa, Movistar México, OXIO, Walmart de México, Megacable and Altán Redes. It forecasts the market year by year to 2030 under three scenarios, with an outlook to 2035, and segments revenue by type and by host network. It also covers the mandatory line registry and the CRT's spectrum tenders.

Report Highlights:

• The Host Network Changes Hands, Pending the CNA: If the CNA clears the sale, Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings will own, 50/50, the radio network that carries 30.2% of Mexico's mobile lines and most of the challengers' lines, and after closing its owners would compete at retail with two of the network's guests.
• The Renewal Window Opens in November 2027: Movistar México's access agreement renews from November 2027, on negotiated terms outside the standing non-discrimination duties the 2025 law places on wholesale shared networks and the preponderant agent, though the CRT may review sharing agreements and set non-discriminatory conditions.
• Market Size and Forecast: Mexico's mobile market was worth $19.7 billion in 2025 and grows 5.0% a year to $25.1 billion by 2030 in the base case, bracketed with 50%, 80% and 95% intervals and set between conservative and optimistic scenarios.
• Revenue Is More Concentrated Than Lines: Telcel's share of mobile revenue is larger than its 57.5% of CRT-counted lines, while Movistar México earns a revenue share well below its 13.8% line share, so line-share tables overstate the challengers.
• Services, Equipment and the Virtual-Operator Tier: Services earned $14.4 billion in 2025, 73% of the market, and equipment $5.3 billion; the virtual-operator tier is the fastest-growing segment in the base case.
• The Case Against the Thesis: During the mandatory line registry the mobile base fell by a net 4.9 million lines between December 2025 and June 2026, yet second-quarter 2026 mobile revenue still grew 5.3%; OXIO's existing ties to all three networks and the incumbent's margin are weighed as cases that run against the thesis.

This report will provide answers to the following questions:

• If the CNA clears the sale of AT&T México, who will own the radio network that carries most of Mexico's challengers' lines, and which guests does it host?
• On what terms does Movistar México's access renew from November 2027, and how far do the 2025 law's non-discrimination duties reach a private host?
• How large was Mexico's mobile market in 2025, and how fast does it grow to 2030 under conservative, base and optimistic scenarios?
• How does each operator's share of revenue compare with its share of lines?
• How is revenue split between services and equipment and across host networks, and which segment grows fastest?
• How did the mandatory line registry affect lines and revenue, and what would weaken the host-network thesis?

Methodology

Our analysis originates from primary research - direct interviews with executives, operators, and technical practitioners actively shaping these markets. This fieldwork provides access to perspective and data not available in secondary sources: what decision-makers are observing in real time, the problems driving purchasing behavior, and where they see value migrating. Every data point and claim undergoes human verification before inclusion; figures that cannot be substantiated or traced to credible sources are excluded.

Market sizing triangulates across multiple independent estimation methods, producing investment-grade estimates with assumptions documented explicitly so readers can evaluate the underlying logic, stress-test key inputs, and defend the numbers in boardrooms and diligence processes. We validate quantitative claims against peer-reviewed research, regulatory filings, and observable market signals - including systematic searches for contradicting evidence. Where methods produce divergent estimates, we investigate the source of variance and report ranges rather than false precision. Forecasts are constructed through scenario modeling anchored to base rates from comparable markets. (While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, forward-looking statements reflect current expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially.)

The result is thesis-driven analysis that delivers clear conclusions: specific enough to cite, transparent enough to verify, comprehensive enough to satisfy diligence requirements, and rigorous enough to withstand the follow-up question.

Target Audience

• Operator strategy teams
• Telecom investors
• Competition lawyers